Q & A Archive

China has signed a series of currency swap agreements since 2008, most recently with New Zealand and Uzbekistan. In an email interview, Daniel McDowell, a doctoral candidate in International Relations at the University of Virginia specializing in International Political Economy, discussed China’s currency swap agreements. WPR: Why is China pursuing currency swap agreements? Daniel McDowell: There are two reasons for these agreements. First, China is concerned about dependence on the U.S. dollar, which is used to settle about half of the world’s international trade transactions. When China accepts payment in dollars, it uses some to buy foreign goods and invests […]

Predictably, Israel and the U.S. have reacted to the news of a Hamas-Fatah reconciliation deal using an outdated lens, whereby the inclusion of Hamas in any Palestinian government rules out the possibility of a negotiated two-state solution. That is most likely true, but it is also irrelevant. The real impact for Israel of the Hamas-Fatah deal, assuming it holds up, is not in its effect on the short-term possibilities, where no peace deal was forthcoming regardless. The impact is on the long-term choices Israel faces. Before the deal, the alternative to a two-state solution was a one-state apartheid system that […]

Under pressure from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Arab League has indefinitely postponed a planned summit meeting in Baghdad. In an email interview, Sean Foley, a Fulbright scholar at the International Institute of Islamic Thought and Civilization in Kuala Lumpur and author of “The Arab Gulf States: Beyond Oil and Islam,” discussed Iraq-GCC relations. WPR: What has been the state of relations between post-Saddam Iraq and the GCC? Sean Foley: While both Iraq and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are energy-producing states allied with Washington, they have poor diplomatic relations. Shiite Arabs dominate Iraq and have close ties […]

Fierce fighting between rebel groups in South Sudan has prompted some to wonder whether the territory is at risk of becoming a failed state upon achieving its independence from Khartoum this July. With the South slated to take control of 75 percent of Sudan’s oil fields upon secession, observers say the bloodshed is the result of a widening power vacuum in which Southern tribes and local warlordsare jockeying for influence in theterritory’s nascent government. “The main violence is South-on-South, and it has to do with who is going to benefit under the new state and how the money is going […]

Earlier this month, voters in Iceland rejected for the second time a referendum that would have implemented a plan to repay the U.K. and the Netherlands for losses stemming from the collapse of Iceland’s banking industry. In an email interview, Fridrik Mar Baldursson, professor of economics at the Reykjavik University School of Business, discussed the Icesave crisis. WPR: What is the background of the Icesave crisis? Fridrik Mar Baldursson: Before the financial crisis, foreign branches of Landsbanki, one of Iceland’s failed banks, collected deposits in Internet savings accounts in the U.K. and the Netherlands marketed under the “Icesave” brand. When […]

With drone attacks, CIA activities and a lack of progress in Afghanistan widening the rift between the United States and Pakistan, the delicate counterterrorism alliance forged between the two after Sept. 11 is coming under increasing scrutiny. “It’s a mistake to presume the U.S. and Pakistan were ever entirely on the same page,” says Stephen Tankel a visiting scholar in the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. Tankel, who spoke with Trend Lines this morning, explains that, initially, the U.S. was rather narrowly focused on targeting al-Qaida, and was careful not to push then-Pakistani […]

Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov recently met with Chinese Premier Hu Jintao in Beijing, where the two pledged to increase trade and strategic cooperation. In an email interview, Florent Parmentier, an academic adviser and lecturer at Sciences Po, discussed China-Ukraine relations. WPR: What is the extent of diplomatic and trade relations between China and Ukraine? Florent Parmentier: Ukraine’s interest in China is relatively new, and vice versa: The boom in trade dates back only to 2008. Yulia Tymoshenko, then prime minister of Ukraine, was the first to develop connections with Chinese leaders and notably met with Chinese Vice Premier Zhang […]

The sudden deployment of tanks and infantry into the Syrian city of Daraa on Monday has some observers wondering whether the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad may soon devolve into a civil war comparable to the one raging a few hundreds miles away in Libya. “If the opposition wants to continue to press its cause, there’s only one way to do it, and that’s through armed struggle,” says Joshua Landis, a professor of Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma. Landis, who maintains Syria Comment, a leading English-language blog on Syrian politics and society, tells Trend Lines that […]

Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan conducted a joint military exercise in Tuzla, Turkey, last month. The joint exercise had been decided on at a summit meeting in December under the auspices of the Turkey-Afghanistan-Pakistan Trilateral Forum. In an email interview, Ishtiaq Ahmad, the Quaid-i-Azam Fellow at St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford, discussed the trilateral forum. WPR: What is the background of the trilateral forum, and to what extent has it been formally institutionalized? Ishtiaq Ahmad: The Turkey-Afghanistan-Pakistan Trilateral Forum was launched in April 2007 as a regional effort to resolve the conflict in Afghanistan by fostering multifaceted cooperation among three […]

Vietnam’s defense minister traveled to China last week to meet with the vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, and the two countries signed a series of bilateral economic agreements later in the week. In an email interview, Brantly Womack, a professor of politics at the University of Virginia and author of “China and Vietnam: The Politics of Asymmetry,” discussed China-Vietnam relations. WPR: What is the current state of China-Vietnam relations? Brantly Womack: In the past 50 years China and Vietnam have been both bosom buddies and implacable enemies, which would suggest that the relationship is unstable. But China has […]

For many Cuba-watchers, the highlight of Fidel Castro’s speech before the 6th Congress of the Cuban Communist Party in Havana on Saturday was a call to shorten term limits for the country’s politicians. The Castro brothers have held office so tightly and for so long, however, that questions are being raised about the extent to which Cuba’s relatively tiny circle of political elite can nurture the sort of leadership transition that now appears on the near horizon. “It’s a fair question, whether there are a broad enough set of younger people who can assume the mantle of leadership inside the […]

The head of India’s navy, Adm. Nirmal Verma, recently met with senior military and civilian officials in Bangladesh, including Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and President Mohammed Zillur. In an email interview, Sreeradha Datta, a research fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis in New Delhi, discussed India-Bangladesh relations. WPR: What is the recent history of India-Bangladesh relations? Sreeradha Datta: Although they began as friends following Bangladesh’s independence, India and Bangladesh quickly lapsed into indifferent if not hostile and antagonistic relations. The worst phase in bilateral ties occurred from 2001-2006. The two subsequently emerged again as friendly and supportive […]

The wave of violence gripping Iraq intensified Monday when a double suicide car bombing killed at least six people and wounded 20 outside the heavily fortified entrance of Baghdad’s Green Zone. The bombings — likely carried out by Sunni groups linked to al-Qaida — could allow Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to strengthen his hold on power, says J. Edward Conway, a World Politics Review contributor and former U.S. Defense Department analyst covering Iraq. “With the ongoing attacks, he’s basically allowed to play the security card,” Conway told Trend Lines this morning. “Some are worried that al-Maliki is acting more […]

Kyrgyzstan recently moved to open membership negotiations with the customs union formed by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus in mid-2010. In an email interview, Alexander Libman, a professor of international political economy at the Frankfurt School of Management and Finance, discussed the prospect of the customs union’s expansion. WPR: What are benefits of the customs union for Russia and the other countries that have joined? Alexander Libman: The three countries in the customs union (CU) — Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan — exhibit a relatively high level of economic interconnection, partly inherited from their Soviet past and partly created anew through the […]

In an attempt to salvage his 24-year hold on power, Burkina Faso’s president, Blaise Compaore, has responded to mounting unrest in the West African nation by dissolving his cabinet and sacking the country’s top military commanders — hasty moves made early this week after soldiers, protesting over undelivered housing allowances, began looting parts of the capital. While his goal may be to mollify angry demonstrators, Compaore is ultimately doing what “[Hosni] Mubarak tried to do and what [Zine El Abidine] Ben Ali tried,” says David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Burkina Faso, now at George Washington University’s Elliot School […]

The International Monetary Fund has proposed that it be allowed to borrow directly from financial markets in order to raise capital for its lending programs. In an email interview, Daniel McDowell, a doctoral student at the University of Virginia and an expert in international lending practices, discussed the IMF’s proposal. WPR: Why is the IMF seeking the ability to borrow directly from financial markets? Daniel McDowell: The IMF wants to be a fully capable international lender of last resort (ILOLR). Simply put, an ILOLR is an actor that is willing and able to provide credit during crises to solvent but […]

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva recently met with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi to discuss promoting trade ties between their two countries. In an email interview, Faizal bin Yahya, a research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies at the National University of Singapore, discussed Thai-Indian relations. WPR: What is the recent history of Thai-Indian relations? Faizal bin Yahya: Thailand and India have increased their bilateral engagement in recent years. Important developments include India’s liberalization of its economy in 1991, its progressive engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its inclusion in the East Asian […]