If Iran’s moves over the past couple months are any indication, Turkey’s growing influence in the South Caucasus, especially its alliance with Azerbaijan, has heightened Tehran’s sense of unease. Iran now sees the prospect of an arc of Turkey-aligned states emerging as a powerful Turkic alliance along its northern borders.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, two successive waves of Russian “war refugees” have descended upon countries in Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus. The response from the receiving countries to date has been mixed, ranging from a welcoming attitude to downright hostility, in part due to the economic impact of the new arrivals.
The strategic and economic importance of the Black Sea region has made it the center of conflict for centuries, and several factors make it unlikely that it will suddenly find stability when the war in Ukraine ends. As a result, the EU and U.S. should be developing contingency plans to ensure stability in the Black Sea region now.
