Today at WPR, we’re covering Poland’s energy transition and the taboo against using nuclear weapons.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Russia: President Vladimir Putin will visit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates tomorrow before meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow on Thursday. The visit to the Gulf marks Putin’s first trip beyond Iran, China and the former Soviet states since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. (New York Times)

Our Take: It has become a common narrative in the West that the war in Ukraine has turned Putin, and by extension Russia, into a pariah. But while it may be true that Putin’s foreign travel has been limited since Russia’s invasion, he is by no means diplomatically isolated, and certainly not to the extent that the West would like to believe.

Putin’s trips to Saudi Arabia and the UAE tomorrow underscore this. Despite Putin’s diplomatic setbacks, most of which are self-inflicted, Russia remains a partner with which regional powers would like to maintain ties, at least on specific issues. In the case of these meetings, Putin is expected to discuss oil production and the Israel-Hamas war, on which Russia’s position is more in line with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, compared to that of the United States.

At the same time—and somewhat paradoxically, given Russia’s supposed pariah status—the visit will likely amplify fears in Washington that Moscow is replacing the U.S. as the key partner for Middle Eastern powers, a narrative that first emerged when Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015. However, far from highlighting Washington’s lack of relevance to the region, the fact that Putin is meeting with the leaders of both Saudi Arabia and Iran in such quick succession is only possible because of the U.S. role in the region—and more specifically because Russia is not the security guarantor for either side.

Finally, there will also probably be a good deal of commentary suggesting that the visit represents a weakening of the Gulf states’ ties with Washington. But to the extent that receiving Putin is a symbolic move for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, it is one that communicates the same message the region’s middle powers have been sending to the U.S. for years: that they are inclined to maintain as broad a diplomatic portfolio as possible in order to maximize their interests amid a shifting global order.