Today at WPR, we’re covering the rise of influencer spouses in Latin American politics and Henry Kissinger’s complicated legacy.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Russia: President Vladimir Putin said Friday he will seek another term in office, an announcement widely expected ever since the Russian Constitution was amended in 2020, effectively allowing Putin to remain Russia’s leader until 2036. A presidential election is scheduled for March 17, which Putin is widely expected to win. (New York Times)

Our Take: Another term in office is now essentially preordained for Putin, making March 17 more a selection than an election. Still, the fact that Putin chose to extend his rule for another term rather than begin an inevitable succession process is revealing.

As with all personalistic authoritarian regimes, built around an individual rather than institutions, the long-term challenge is finding a successor able to maintain regime cohesion. In the late 2010s, Putin was thought to have been considering a succession plan in which he would leave office and maintain power from behind-the-scenes.

But it’s likely that Putin took Nursultan Nazarbayev’s attempt at a similar ploy in Kazakhstan as a cautionary tale. After Nazarbayev resigned in 2019, his hand-picked successor moved to purge Nazarbayev and his allies from power. For Putin, that served as a warning—there is essentially no way to remain the power behind the throne without also being seen as a threat. As a result, remaining in office is about personal security as much as it is about maintaining power.

And yet, this further underscores the fact that the Russian regime in all likelihood would not hold together without Putin as the glue. That was already demonstrated earlier this year, when Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted a mutiny. In a moment of uncertainty, in which it was suddenly no longer clear whether Putin still exercised effective control of the regime, Russia’s leadership hesitated, perhaps even vacillated—but in the absence of any credible replacement, ultimately stood by him. Of course, Putin will eventually exit the stage, at which point the regime will in all likelihood face an internal power struggle that could lead to civil war. By seeking another term, Putin has delayed that inevitable reckoning.