Yesterday, former U.S. President Donald Trump won a decisive victory over VP Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election. In the run-up to yesterday’s vote, we’ve been covering the potential impact of the outcome on U.S. foreign policy and the international order more broadly.
Today, we thought it would be helpful to run down specifically what a second Trump term will likely mean for different aspects of global affairs, based on our coverage:
U.S. Foreign Policy, by Paul Poast. Most of what Trump has said about foreign policy—and, to be clear, he has offered little in terms of details—has sounded a lot like his first term. “It could be that Trump is simply out of new ideas. But he might also truly believe that what he did the first time around worked.”
Trade Policy and Tariffs, by Mary Gallagher and Paul Poast, respectively. Trump embraces the use of high and far-reaching tariffs, envisioning them as a tool to remake the U.S. economy as a fortress, internally strong and autonomous from other economies. He also believes tariffs can be used to fund a much smaller federal government. But it is difficult to find economists or trade specialists who support Trump’s proposed use of tariffs.
Climate Policy, by Martha Molfetas. Trump is expected to retreat from climate action, eliminating climate mitigation and adaptation policies, while doubling down on the use of fossil fuels and removing incentives for renewable energy. Internationally, a U.S. retreat from multilateral climate frameworks will likely put global climate goals out of reach.
U.S. Alliances, by Frida Ghitis. Trump showed a clear disdain for most U.S. alliances and partnerships during his first term, and he is almost certain to do the same in his second term. As a result, many U.S. allies have been and continue to work toward “Trump-proofing” global security.
The War in Ukraine, by Paul Poast. Trump has said he can end the war in Ukraine before even taking office. He likely believes that by threatening to cut off the U.S. aid on which Ukraine relies to defend itself against Russia’s invasion, Kyiv will be forced to negotiate with Moscow to end the conflict. It is far from clear that doing so would have the desired effect.
