Q & A Archive

Tolib Ayembekov, a warlord formerly based in eastern Tajikistan, gave himself up earlier this month following a major military offensive by Tajik authorities. In an email interview, Paul Quinn-Judge, deputy director of the International Crisis Group’s Asia Program, discussed Tajikistan’s security situation. WPR: What is the background to the most recent round of violence Tajikistan? Paul Quinn-Judge: The current unrest in Tajikistan, in the mountainous eastern area of Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous district, has some local elements — suspicion of central government that dates back to the 1992-1997 civil war and a strong sense on the part of the local inhabitants of […]

On Wednesday, the Securities and Exchange Commission narrowly approved reporting rules intended to curb corruption in resource extraction and to combat human rights abuses in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Act, also called the “conflict minerals provision,” requires that companies determine the origin of the metals they use and disclose whether they contain minerals from conflict zones, including the DRC and neighboring African countries.* “The SEC’s ruling is one more important piece of the puzzle to resolving the conflict in eastern Congo,” Sasha Lezhnev, senior policy analyst at the Washington-based human rights organization Enough, told […]

Prime Minister Dean Barrow of Belize is pushing international creditors to agree to a debt restructuring after his government missed a payment this week. In an email interview, Heather Berkman, an analyst at Eurasia Group’s Latin America practice, where she takes the lead on the Caribbean, Central America and Colombia, discussed Belize’s debt problems. WPR: What are the scope and causes of Belize’s current economic difficulties? Heather Berkman: There are a number of factors contributing to Belize’s current financial predicament. First, the economy has struggled to rebound since the global downturn in 2009, and recorded only 2 percent growth in […]

Mexico’s Ciudad Juárez saw a decrease in killings last month, with 48 homicides, 40 of them related to the drug trade, down from more than 300 deaths in many months of 2010, when drug violence was at its peak. While Mexican authorities point to their own efforts as the reason for the decline, the two experts who spoke with Trend Lines emphasized the consolidation of power in the drug cartels, with the Sinaloa drug trafficking cartel gaining control of smuggling routes and the local narcotics trade in Ciudad Juárez, and Los Zetas, the largest crime organization in Mexico, experiencing deep […]

Police in Greece conducted a massive immigration operation earlier this month that resulted in thousands of arrests. In an email interview, Gabriella Lazaridis, a senior lecturer in the department of politics and international relations at the University of Leicester, discussed Greece’s immigration crackdown. WPR: What is the current situation in terms of trends in legal and illegal immigration to Greece as well as Greek immigration policy? Gabriella Lazaridis: Since the beginning of the 1990s, Greece has changed from an emigration to an immigration country. In the first quarter of 2012, some 64 percent of all irregular migrants in the European […]

Nabeel Rajab, a prominent opposition activist who founded the Bahrain Center for Human Rights, was sentenced to three years in jail last week for his participation in protests. The protests, led mostly by members of the Shiite Muslim majority who are calling for democracy, began last year and continued even as the government imposed martial law and responded with what many call excessive use of force. Explaining that he was disappointed but not surprised to read the news, Toby C. Jones, an associate professor of history at Rutgers University, told Trend Lines the verdict represents the end of any pretense […]

Late last month, China and South Korea agreed to establish a hotline between their respective defense chiefs. In an email interview, Jaeho Hwang, dean of the Division of International Studies at Hankuk University in South Korea, discussed the South Korea-China military relationship. WPR: What is the extent of the current military relationship between China and South Korea? Jaeho Hwang: Usually military relations are classified into three levels: military exchange, military cooperation and military alliance. The exchange level is the lowest level of military relations and includes the exchange of personnel, mutual exercises, aircraft and naval vessel visits and other less […]

Regulators in Australia gave approval last month to the $30 billion Browse gas export project in the state of Western Australia. In an email interview, Vlado Vivoda, a research fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University, discussed Australia’s energy security. WPR: What is the breakdown of Australia’s energy consumption, in terms of fuel types and sources, and is there any policy strategy to shift the balance? Vlado Vivoda: Australia is mainly reliant on fossil fuels, which make up 96 percent of its primary energy demand. The largest source of energy is coal, with 40 percent, followed by oil, […]

After a visit to Beijing earlier this week by Chang Song Taek, a high-ranking North Korean official seen as a key influence on his nephew and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, China and North Korea announced that they had signed a number of agreements to enhance economic cooperation. According to the BBC, the two countries signed deals on the development of two special economic zones as well as on electricity supply and agricultural cooperation. For Daniel Sneider, associate director for research at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, the deals reflect the fact that China […]

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited France last month in an effort to improve the two countries’ strained bilateral relationship. In an email interview, Dorothée Schmid, head of the Turkey program at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), discussed France-Turkey relations. WPR: What explains the deterioration of Franco-Turkish relations over the past several years? Dorothée Schmid: Three main issues became contentious between France and Turkey over the past decade. In chronological order, the recognition of the Armenian genocide came first: The French Parliament passed a bill in 2001 officially calling the events of 1915 a genocide, triggering an immediate […]

The murder trial of Gu Kailai, the wife of ousted Chinese Communist Party leader Bo Xilai, came to a conclusion last week. According to reports, Gu, a prominent Chinese lawyer, confessed to the murder of Neil Heywood, a longtime family friend and business associate. François Godement, a professor of political science at Sciences Po in Paris and a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the case, which was over in less than seven hours, reflects how controlled the Chinese justice system continues to be. “Very often in China you are judged by a particular court not […]

Several European Union countries recently asked the European Commission to consider sanctions against Iceland for allegedly exceeding its fishing quota for mackerel. In an email interview, Eirikur Bergmann, an associate professor of political science at Bifrost University in Iceland, discussed the mackerel dispute between the EU and Iceland. WPR: What is the background of the current fishing dispute between Iceland and the European Union? Eirikur Bergmann: Backed by France, Portugal, Ireland and Spain, the European Union is considering sanctions against Iceland and the Faroe Islands for overfishing of mackerel, a pelagic fish stock in the North Atlantic. Mackerel has an […]

Nearly two weeks of continuous rain have caused floods to sweep through Manila as well as nearby areas, killing at least 23 people so far and affecting nearly 2 million. The deadly floods in the Philippine capital are the latest in a series of flooding-related disasters to strike the region. Last month, the heaviest rainfall to hit Beijing, China, in six decades forced the evacuation of 650,000 people from their homes, while three months of heavy rains in Bangkok, Thailand, last year claimed at least 500 lives. According to Edward Blakely, honorary professor of urban policy at the University of […]

Last month Slovenia threatened to block Croatia’s accession to the European Union over an unresolved banking dispute. In an email interview, Kristof Bender, the deputy chairman of the European Stability Initiative, discussed relations between Croatia and Slovenia in the context of the European Union. WPR: How have Slovenia-Croatia relations evolved since the breakup of Yugoslavia? Kristof Bender: Most of the time relations between Slovenia and Croatia have been good, particularly if measured by post-Yugoslav standards. Exceptions include a row over the management, ownership and financing of a jointly operated nuclear power plant; a dispute over more than $210 million in […]

Last week, Hillary Clinton began what is likely to be her last extended visit to Africa as U.S. secretary of state. On Tuesday, she met with officials in South Africa, one of nine countries she will visit over 10 days as the U.S. seeks to deepen its ties with the continent. “When I look at U.S. engagement with Africa from one secretary of state to another, I see a very coherent theme,” Mwangi Kimenyi, director of the Africa Growth Initiative at the Brookings Institution, told Trend Lines. “They read from the same playbook.” While the themes of U.S. foreign policy […]

During a visit to New Delhi in July, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signed an agreement to continue training Singapore troops at Indian military facilities. In an email interview, Jayati Bhattacharya, a lecturer in the South Asian studies program at the National University of Singapore, discussed India-Singapore relations. WPR: What is the extent of India-Singapore diplomatic, trade and defense ties, and how have they evolved in recent years? Jayati Bhattacharya: The long-standing relationship between Singapore and India has been accelerated and facilitated by the tectonic shift of economic power in the Asia-Pacific region. […]

On Tuesday, Venezuela was formally admitted as the fifth full member of Mercosur, the South American trading bloc that was founded in 1991 by Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. While the accession of Venezuela, which has one of the largest proven oil reserves in the world, will improve regional economic integration, it is also likely to deepen divisions among the group’s members. Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told Trend Lines that Venezuela’s admission to Mercosur was long overdue, having been held up in recent years by the Paraguayan legislature for reasons that were also […]