Q & A Archive

The Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), commonly known as the Pakistani Taliban, has claimed responsibility for an attack over the weekend that killed nine foreign mountain climbers and their local guide, calling it retribution for a U.S. drone strike last month that killed Waliur Rehman, the deputy head of the terrorist organization. Trend Lines spoke with three leading experts on Pakistani security about what the attack indicates about Pakistan’s fight against the Pakistani Taliban. “The militants killed the nine foreign tourists because they knew that this would make headlines in Pakistan and abroad, which would embarrass the government greatly,” Mansur Khan […]

This week, followers of a radical Sunni cleric fought for two days with Lebanese security forces in the southern city of Sidon, in clashes that reportedly killed 18 soldiers and up to 40 of the cleric’s followers. In an email interview, Oren Barak, associate professor of political science and international relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, explained the Lebanese armed forces’ position within Lebanese society and its efforts to maintain stability amid spillover from Syria’s civil war. WPR: What is the Lebanese army’s position within Lebanon’s factional society, and who does it answer to? Oren Barak: The Lebanese armed […]

This month, there were reports that Ukraine was considering seeking arms deals with both Mexico and Turkey. In an email interview, Taras Kuzio, a fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and an expert in Ukrainian security and politics, explained the recent history and current state of Ukraine’s arms industry. WPR: Who are the main buyers of Ukrainian arms, and in which categories of arms? Taras Kuzio: Developing countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, countries in the Middle East and former Soviet client states are the main buyers of Ukrainian arms. The main products are light […]

In Kuwait, where the Constitutional Court has ordered the dissolution of parliament for the second time in a year, the Cabinet decided in an emergency meeting to call parliamentary elections for next month. Now the timing of those elections is in question after the Cabinet moved Monday to delay the vote. Initially scheduled for July 25, when held the elections will be the sixth in seven years for the Persian Gulf state, where, as Al Jazeera reported, “political upheaval has stalled infrastructure development and delayed economic reforms.” “Kuwait is passing through a period of extended political turbulence and uncertainty, as […]

Last week, Syria’s currency lost nearly a third of its value, the latest blow to an economy damaged by years of sanctions and war. In an email interview, Samer Abboud, an assistant professor at Arcadia University who has researched Syria’s political economy, explained the sanctions against Syria and the sectors most deeply affected by them. WPR: What is the state of the sanctions regime on Syria, in terms of measures existing before the war began and those enacted since? Samer Abboud: The U.S. sanctions prior to the conflict were mostly symbolic and had limited material impact on the economy. After […]

In Brazil, protests that began in opposition to a hike in bus fares are continuing even after Sao Paulo and Rio De Janiero agreed to reverse the fare increase. Demonstrators yesterday targeted government corruption and excessive spending on preparations to host the 2014 World Cup. “There is not one clear, unified set of demands,” Mary Paula Arends-Kuenning, director of the Lemann Institute for Brazilian Studies at University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, said in an email interview. “The immediate one would be to lower public transportation fares. But the aims have expanded to increased public investment in schools, health and public transportation, […]

Turkish Cypriot President Dervis Eroglu appointed Sibel Siber to head a caretaker government last week after the government of the territory, which is recognized only by Turkey following its 1974 invasion, collapsed on June 5. In an email interview, Michális Michael, research fellow and deputy director of the center for dialogue at La Trobe University, explained the background of the political crisis and its ramifications for the island’s peace process. WPR: What led to the vote of no confidence against former Prime Minister Irsen Kucuk? Michális S. Michael: Eight disaffected deputies from the ruling Ulusal Birlik Partisi (National Ruling Party, […]

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki recently concluded his first trip in years to Irbil, capital of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, without having made any tangible progress toward resolving the feud between the central Iraqi government and the Iraqi Kurds, who are developing their own energy industry and exporting oil to Turkey. Discussing the position of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) amid regional turmoil, the experts who spoke with Trend Lines emphasized the Kurds’ interest in normalizing relations with Iraq’s central government in Baghdad. “By seeking a future with Turkey instead of Iraq, some Kurdish leaders may think they do […]

This month, China and the U.S. concluded a deal to “phase down” emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a highly polluting form of greenhouse gas. In an email interview, Adam Moser, assistant director of the U.S.-China Partnership for Environmental Law at Vermont Law School, explained the difficulty the U.S. and China have had on climate change cooperation and the significance of the recent agreement. WPR: What in the past has limited cooperation between the U.S. and China on climate change? Adam Moser: First, both countries have domestic political situations and interest groups that have contributed to their limited cooperation on climate change, […]

Reports are spreading and speculation is rising that Qatar is nearing a major leadership transition, with the crown prince expected to become prime minister in the next few weeks before replacing his father as emir. Both Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani and Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa are expected to step down and cede power to Crown Prince Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani. Michael Stephens, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, said the question is not whether the transition will happen but when and how […]

Last month, Turkish President Abdullah Gul visited Turekmenistan to discuss bilateral ties. In an email interview, Bayram Balci, a visiting scholar focusing on Turkish foreign policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explained Turkey’s broader relationship with the Central Asian republics. WPR: What has been the recent evolution of Turkey’s relationship with Central Asia, and why does Turkey prioritize the region in terms of its foreign aid? Bayram Balci: The last major political event between Turkey and Central Asia was the 10th summit of Turkey and the other Turkic republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan—which took place in Istanbul […]

There was heavy fighting last week between the Malian army and separatists belonging to the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), a Tuareg separatist group fighting for autonomy in northern Mali from a stronghold in the city of Kidal. This week, a Malian government delegation reached an agreement with the Tuareg rebels. The cease-fire deal “in principle” would allow the elections scheduled for July 28 to take place in the disputed region. But the experts who spoke with Trend Lines do not expect that any lasting solutions to the demands of the Tuaregs, rebels who have refused to […]

In a visit this month to Central America by Chinese President Xi Jinping, China extended a $900 million line of credit to Costa Rica, the only Central American country that recognizes Beijing and not Taipei as the government of China. In an email interview, Cynthia Watson, professor of security at the National War College of National Defense University, explained China’s expanding contacts in Central America, and why most Central American countries maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Her comments are personal analysis, not official U.S. government policy. WPR: What have been China’s recent efforts to expand ties with Central America, and […]

Last month, Taiwan imposed sanctions on the Philippines over the shooting death of a Taiwanese fisherman by the Philippine coast guard in disputed waters. In an email interview, Hui-Yi Katherine Tseng, a research associate at the East Asian Institute who has researched trade and conflict management in East Asia, discussed ties between Taiwan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and how the current dispute is likely to affect them. WPR: How extensive are trade and diplomatic ties between Taiwan and ASEAN and its member states? Hui-Yi Katherine Tseng: The logic of redressing its overreliance on economic ties with […]

On Wednesday, President Barack Obama announced that Susan Rice would replace Tom Donilon as national security adviser and nominated Samantha Power to replace Rice as ambassador to the United Nations. The New York Times called the two women “outspoken voices for humanitarian intervention,” noting how they had joined forces with then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to persuade Obama to back the NATO-led Libya intervention. But despite their interventionist reputations, Rice and Power will implement the agenda of the president, explained Mark Jacobson, who is senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and also serves as […]

During a visit to Myanmar late last month, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe extended new aid to the country and canceled Myanmar’s debt with Japan. In an email interview, Sean Turnell, an associate professor in the economics department at Australia’s Macquarie University specializing in Myanmar, explained the recent trajectory of Japan’s ties with the country. WPR: What has Japan’s approach been to Myanmar over the past decade, and how has that changed since the end of military rule in Myanmar? Sean Turnell: For most of the past decade, Japan’s strategy toward Myanmar has been one of “watching and waiting.” Responding […]

A peaceful protest against plans to demolish Gezi Park in Istanbul, Turkey, turned violent last week when riot police responded with tear gas, and the local demonstrations quickly spread to other cities and transformed into a popular movement calling for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to resign. The exponential growth of the demonstrations has been interpreted as resulting from widespread frustration over Erdogan’s failure to respond to public opinion. Henri Barkey, a professor of international relations at Lehigh University, explained in an email interview with Trend Lines that the protests represent a major blow to Erdogan and his standing in […]