Q & A Archive

This month, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk faced protests in the capital followed by the defection of a member of his governing party in parliament. In an email interview, Aleks Szczerbiak, professor of politics and contemporary European studies at the University of Sussex, explained the sources of Polish discontent and the implications for the stability of Tusk’s government. WPR: What is driving the dissatisfaction with Tusk’s government? Aleks Szczerbiak: The slump in support for Tusk’s government is due to a number of factors. Continued economic sluggishness has accompanied a growing perception that the government is drifting and has failed to […]

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is meeting U.S. President Barack Obama today at the White House, where the two leaders are expected to reach deals on defense cooperation and trade in nuclear technology. That reflects the interest on both sides to move past the “differences and divisions have taken center stage in recent months,” as Richard Fontaine explained in World Politics Review last month: Despite drift in some key areas of the relationship, the underlying strategic rationale for it remains. Washington is rebalancing its foreign policy to Asia, attempting to allot that region greater diplomatic attention, military resources and commercial […]

A group of Tuareg rebels in northern Mali, whose rebellion against the central government sparked a coup and eventually a French intervention, announced yesterday that they were backing out of a June 2013 peace agreement with the Malian government. The move is a step backward for the efforts to stitch Mali back together again. But as Kamissa Camara wrote in WPR earlier this month, the agreement put on hold yesterday was problematic to begin with: Mali’s central government has signed a series of peace agreements with Tuareg rebels over the years, but they have only served short-term purposes. The latest […]

Al-Shabab, the Islamic extremist group behind the recent siege on an upscale mall in Nairobi, Kenya, has since carried out attacks on Kenyan towns near the Somalia border. The group has threatened to continue the violence until Kenyan troops withdraw from Somalia, and even as forensic experts work to put the pieces together and determine the death toll after the devastating terrorist attack on Nairobi’s Westgate mall, analysts are beginning to ask what is next for al-Shabab. “The concern is that because al-Shabab is not really a conventional threat anymore, and yet they clearly want to retain their credibility and […]

Addressing the U.N. General Assembly yesterday, Madagascar’s unelected transitional president, Andry Rajoelina, told world leaders that he had decided not to run in his country’s upcoming presidential election, slated for Oct. 25. The decision, Rajoelina said, would “unblock the political crisis.” Rajoelina came to office on the back of a military coup in 2009 that ousted elected President Marc Ravalomanana, who is currently living in exile in South Africa. As Simon Massey wrote in a WPR briefing last month, Madagascar has suffered from the ensuing protracted crisis: The intervening period has seen deterioration in the rule of law, declining standards […]

This month, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy offered to hold talks with Catalonia but did not offer a vote on independence for the Spanish region whose citizens have long sought greater autonomy. In an email interview, Elisenda Paluzie, a professor of economic theory at the University of Barcelona, explained the state of the Catalan independence movement. WPR: What is the state of the Catalan independence movement in terms of its degree of organization and level of popular support? Elisenda Paluzie: On one hand, there is an important grassroots movement for independence, which has strong popular support and is very diverse […]

BERLIN—In national elections on Sunday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), performed even better than their own polls suggested they would. The CDU and its Bavaria-based sister party, the Christian Social Union, won 311 seats in parliament. The Social Democratic Party won 192 seats, the Left Party 64 and theGreen Party 63. But Merkel’s victory comes at the price of losing her Free Democratic Party (FDP) coalition partner as the third-term chancellor works to form her new government, most likely in a coalition with the Social Democrats. The FDP failed to win the 5 […]

Finland and Sweden are considering joining NATO, at the same time that the Nordic countries, among them NATO members Norway and Denmark, are seeking greater defense cooperation among themselves. In an email interview, Magnus Nordenman, deputy director of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, explained what’s driving the calls for deeper Nordic defense cooperation. WPR: What is driving the calls for deeper defense cooperation among the Nordic countries? Magnus Nordenman: There are several reasons. One is that modern military forces with expeditionary capabilities are very expensive to field and maintain. While the Nordic countries are some of the wealthiest […]

The terrorist assault on Nairobi’s Westgate mall comes amid a lengthy military campaign by Kenyan forces to root out the militant group al-Shabab from southeastern Somalia. That intervention has proved more difficult than Kenyan officials initially predicted and sparked fears—now apparently realized—of terrorist blowback within Kenya. This background note reviews WPR’s extensive coverage of the Kenyan intervention and Somalia’s state of governance and security. Al-Shabab’s Looming Threat in Kenya After Somalia Intervention, Kenya Faces War Within, by Charles Wachira, Dec. 12, 2012: In the wake of its intervention into Somalia, Kenya has feared a backlash at home. Kenya Gets Pro-Active […]

HAMBURG, Germany—In the days leading up to Germany’s general elections Sunday, colorful campaign posters seem to be wrapped around every roadside tree trunk and street lamp. The face of Chancellor Angela Merkel, staring straight into the camera with a red blazer and a slight smile, is paired with the words “Kanzlerin für Deutshland,” or our chancellor for Germany. But while international observers are watching Germany during an election that has major implications for Europe and the world, it is not clear whether German voters themselves are sufficiently interested in the stakes to head to the polls at a high rate. […]

An accord on electoral reform reached this week between Cambodia’s long-ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) and the opposition Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) ended three days of protests in the capital but did not convince the CNRP to drop its threat to boycott the opening session of parliament next week. According to the current vote tally from Cambodia’s July elections, which were widely considered flawed, the CNRP won 55 seats in Cambodia’s 123-seat legislature, the bulk of them from Phnom Penh and its nearby provinces. While falling short of a majority, the number represents an unprecedented gain of 22 seats […]

New U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power is living up to her reputation as a staunch defender of human rights, and in the process is testing the limits of U.S. diplomacy within the bounds of international law. Power came out swinging Monday in a statement about Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir’s decision to seek a visa to attend the U.N. General Assembly, which opened yesterday in New York. “Such a trip would be deplorable, cynical and hugely inappropriate,” she said, adding that Bashir, who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court, ought to turn himself over to the ICC […]

In late-August, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda decided to accelerate their integration under the regional body the East African Community (EAC) without involving EAC member state Tanzania, potentially signalling the emergence of a two-speed East African integration process. In an email interview, Stefan Reith, head of the Tanzania office of the German political foundation Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, explained the progress to date of East African integration and the obstacles to its implementation. WPR: What steps has the East African Community taken so far toward greater political integration? Stefan Reith: Unlike other African regional integration mechanisms like the Southern African Development Community, the Common […]

Timor-Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao paid a three-day visit to Vietnam this month to promote bilateral relations. In an email interview, Michael Leach, associate professor of politics and public policy at Australia’s Swinburne University researching Timor-Leste politics, explained Timor-Leste’s foreign policy priorities and its growing role in its region. WPR: Which countries are Timor-Leste’s closest regional partners? Michael Leach: Indonesia and Australia will remain Timor-Leste’s most important regional partners for the foreseeable future. Indonesia is Timor-Leste’s largest trading partner, though bilateral trade is overwhelmingly skewed in favor of Indonesian exports of essential and consumer goods. Despite minor tensions over small […]

Fighting between rebels and security forces erupted in the southern Philippines Monday after heavily armed Muslim rebels landed in coastal districts with plans to declare an independent state. As Reuters reported, security officials say the rebels are part of a rogue faction of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) that was angry over claims the government had not fully implemented an existing peace agreement. In an email interview, Steven Rood, Philippines country representative of the Asia Foundation, said the incident in Zamboanga City is not likely to destabilize the peace deal signed last year with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front […]

This month, the March 23 (M23) rebel movement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) announced it would agree to a cease-fire only if the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), another armed group active in the DRC, were “neutralized.” In an email interview, Christoph Vogel, a Mercator Fellow in International Affairs researching armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, explained the FDLR’s current strength and the regional cooperation necessary to disarm it. WPR: What is the current profile of the FDLR in terms of its rough location, size and ability to pose a military threat? […]

In India, violent clashes between Hindus and Muslims over the weekend reportedly killed at least 30 people. Officials say the riots in the northern Indian province of Uttar Pradesh were a reaction to a video clip allegedly showing the lynching of two young people. “India is one of the most religiously diverse countries in the world, so it’s always had difficulty in keeping the peace between its various religious groups,” Ajay Verghese, assistant professor of politics at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg, wrote Trend Lines in an email interview. “But what happened in Uttar Pradesh really fits the […]