Q & A Archive

In Cambodia, the ruling Cambodia People’s Party (CPP) claimed victory in the elections held Sunday, but the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party is rejecting the results and calling for an investigation into alleged election irregularities. The experts who spoke with Trend Lines said that whether or not the opposition is successful in challenging the results, the election was in some ways a victory for the Cambodian opposition and for Cambodian democracy more broadly. “The CPP still has a majority and will still have the dominant voice. But the results will likely mean a more vocal opposition and perhaps lay the […]

In mid-July, Mexican authorities captured Miguel Angel Trevino Morales, leader of the Zetas, a major Mexican drug trafficking organization known for its brutality. In an email interview, Brian Phillips, research professor at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE) in Mexico City whose research focuses on subnational political violence, discussed Mexico’s strategy of capturing or killing the leaders of drug organizations. WPR: What is the rationale behind Mexico’s kingpin strategy? Brian Phillips: Mexico focuses on arresting “kingpins,” high-level members of drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs), because it is trying to reduce the power and violence associated with these groups. The […]

Last week, al-Qaida’s Iraqi branch staged major simultaneous raids on two Iraqi prisons, afterward claiming to have freed more than 500 Iraqi detainees in the operation. In an email interview, Myriam Benraad, senior Middle East research fellow and Iraq specialist at Sciences Po Paris, explained Iraq’s detention system and the U.S. role in it. WPR: What is Iraq’s system for handling fighters captured on the battlefield? Myriam Benraad: Following the enforcement of the U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement in 2009, U.S.-run prison facilities were officially transferred to the Iraqi government. Specific “rehabilitation” and “deradicalization” programs were developed and implemented, intended to thwart […]

On Tuesday, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir dismissed his vice president and suspended the secretary-general of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) along with all 29 Cabinet members and their deputies. The move, which was announced in a decree read on national television, comes as the newly independent country faces a host of challenges, including continuing internal violence and negotiations with Sudan, its neighbor to the north. “What we have been seeing in recent months is a more public and more tangible jockeying within the party as a prelude to the 2015 elections,” said Lesley Anne Warner, Africa analyst […]

This month, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan rebel group now based in the Democratic Republic of Congo, staged attacks that prompted more than 60,000 Congolese refugees to flee to neighboring Uganda. In an email interview, Kristof Titeca, senior research fellow at the University of Antwerp’s Institute of Development Policy and Management and the University of Ghent’s Conflict Research Group, described the ADF’s background and its recent resurgence. WPR: What is the background on the Allied Democratic Forces in terms of their numbers and goals? Kristof Titeca: The movement was started in 1995 in eastern Congo by Ugandan members […]

On Monday, Afghanistan’s lower house of parliament voted no confidence in Interior Minister Ghulam Mujtaba Patang. The lawmakers advocated his ouster on the basis of, among other things, worsening security on several of the highways that link Kabul to the surrounding provinces. The vote was not terribly noteworthy for the predictable standoff it provoked between parliament and Karzai, who said he’d refer the matter to the Supreme Court for “advice.” As Gran Hewad and his coauthors point out at Afghanistan Analysts Network, Karzai and the legislature have had a testy relationship ever since Afghanistan’s first post-Taliban parliament was elected in […]

Last week, Alexei Navalny, a Russian anti-corruption activist and blogger who gained a reputation as unofficial leader of the Russian opposition during protests against President Vladimir Putin, was freed on bail pending appeal of his five-year prison sentence on charges of embezzlement. Navalny now plans to run for mayor of Moscow, despite a prosecution many see as politically motivated. “The question still remains as to whether the movement can grow from ‘anti-Putin’ or ‘pro-Navalny’ to something with a real political program,” Sarah Oates, professor and senior scholar at the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism and author of […]

Meeting in Bremerhaven, Germany, last week, the group of nations charged with regulating Antarctic fishing failed to reach agreement on the establishment of marine protected areas due to Russian objections to the legality of the group’s mandate. In an email interview, Julia Jabour, leader of the Ocean and Antarctic Governance Research Program at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania, explained the process leading up to the talks and what the failure of talks means for Antarctic marine protection. WPR: What was the process that led to the talks last week in Bremerhaven? Julia Jabour: […]

With its parent organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, ousted from power in Egypt, Hamas is once again facing a new reality in the Middle East. “Hamas considers itself to be an extension of the Muslim Brotherhood, so any attack or weakening of the Muslim Brotherhood is bound to impact Hamas itself,” said Hisham Ahmed, a professor of politics at St. Mary’s College of California. Hamas, the Palestinian organization that governs the Gaza Strip, saw the election of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi to Egypt’s presidency as a signal of political and ideological support from the largest Arab country in the region. […]

Last month, the European Union renewed the mandate of the European Network and Information Security Agency, its principal cybersecurity agency, giving it expanded responsibilities. In an email interview, Alexander Klimburg, a fellow at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs specializing in cybersecurity as well as EU foreign and security policy, explained the state of EU cyberdefense and its role in EU-U.S. relations. WPR: How is responsibility for cybersecurity divided among EU member states and the institutions of the EU? Alexander Klimburg: In the EU Cyber Security Strategy, published earlier this year, the EU committed itself to all five of the […]

In Mali, a West African country once seen as a model of democracy but now in the midst of an internal conflict, presidential hopefuls are campaigning for July 28 elections that some fear are coming too soon. John Campbell, Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the elections should be postponed, “both because of the inadequacy of the technical preparations for the elections but also the concern that the occasion of the elections raises the possibility of terrorist attacks and very low turnout,” he said. Low turnout might detract from the legitimacy […]

The first major development in Mexico’s fight against drug organizations under the Enrique Pena Nieto administration came early yesterday morning when Mexican marines arrested Miguel Angel Trevino Morales, known as Z-40, the head of the ultraviolent Zetas organization. While lauding the arrest, analysts are largely united in the assessment that Z-40’s arrest will result in more violence in the near term, as the struggle to fill the power vacuum left by the arrest unfolds. The arrest also throws into relief the issue of the so-called kingpin strategy of targeting top leaders of Mexico’s drug organizations, which the Pena Nieto administration […]

The Egyptian military’s ouster of President Mohammed Morsi has placed Egypt’s ultraconservative Islamists Salafis in a position of distinct power. The Times of Israel described the reaction among Salafis to the coup in Egypt as one of jumping on the “revolutionary bandwagon,” with the Salafi al-Watan party, fearing political marginalization, calling for national unity following the coup. And even as Egyptian security forces rounded up Muslim Brotherhood leaders, the new interim president called for Islamists to participate in building the new Egypt, in a statement that could serve as an invitation to the Salafis to play a more prominent role. […]

Portugal appeared to be on the brink of government collapse last week after a string of unexpected ministerial resignations. But so far, the coalition government under Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho has survived. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that Portugal, which has faced three years of recession and has imposed unpopular austerity measures under the terms of a European Union bailout, is more notable for its stability than its turmoil. “This recent political crisis is fundamentally driven by political positioning, not driven by people on the street saying enough is enough, and […]

Last week, the British government announced that it would ban khat, an herbal stimulant popular in the Middle East and Africa. In an email interview, Axel Klein, a lecturer in the anthropology of conflict, criminal justice and policy at the University of Kent’s Center for Health Services Studies, explained the rationale for the ban and its likely effect on khat-consuming communities within the U.K. WPR: What was the British government’s rationale for banning khat? Axel Klein: Interestingly, the arguments for the ban were not laid out clearly. All the home secretary said in her statement was that khat had been […]

Last week, Amnesty International reported that Russia, Ukraine and several former Soviet states were cooperating in illegal rendition programs, while Russian President Vladimir Putin declined to extradite Edward Snowden, the former U.S. government contractor who confessed to having leaked classified information on U.S. surveillance programs and who remains in a Moscow airport. In an email interview, Jacques Hartmann, a lecturer at the University of Dundee Law School who specializes in international law and extradition, explained Russia’s extradition and rendition practices, their political drivers and their legal implications. WPR: What are the main deciding factors when Russia considers an extradition or […]

In Mozambique, the Renamo opposition party has put increasing pressure on the Frelimo ruling party, raising concerns of a return to the violence that characterized the country’s 16-year civil war after the former rebel group was blamed for attacks that killed two people last week. “Renamo is increasingly marginalized, and I think Afonso Dhlakama concluded that only through targeted violence can he strengthen his negotiating hand,” Alex Vines, head of the Africa Program at Chatham House, told Trend Lines in an email interview. “This is a high risk strategy, open to miscalculation.” Dhlakama, who leads Renamo, has operated from the […]