Q & A Archive

The Chinese government’s decision, reportedly made at the highest levels, to arrest not only world-renowned artist Ai Weiwei, but also several of Ai’s lesser-known associates, raises the question of what criteria, if any, Chinese authorities use to determine who to target with such crackdowns. Understanding the political calculus behind the crackdowns is no easy task, according to Iain Mills, a Beijing-based World Politics Review contributor. “It’s ambiguous and totally arbitrary, really. There is no apparent logic as to when they decide to arrest someone,” Mills told Trend Lines earlier this week, noting that “probably 90 percent of those arrested or […]

The Turkish government has responded to Syria’s ongoing crackdown against protesters by engaging with Bashir al-Assad’s government and urging it to commit to reforms. In an email interview, Malik Mufti, a professor of international relations at Tufts University, discussed Turkish-Syrian relations. WPR: What is the recent history of Turkish-Syrian relations? Malik Mufti: Bilateral relations were poor during the 1990s because of Turkey’s diversion of Euphrates waters and Syria’s sponsorship of the Kurdish PKK rebellion. A Turkish ultimatum in 1998 induced Syria to cut off the PKK, however, and the enhancement of Iraqi Kurdistan’s autonomy following the 2003 U.S. invasion led […]

In March, the Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement garnered enough national signatures to allow it to be presented to national parliaments for ratification. In an email interview, Aaron Wolf, a professor at Oregon State University specializing in water resources policy and conflict resolution, discussed the political maneuvering over water rights in the Nile Basin. WPR: What is the significance of the finalization of the Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement? Aaron Wolf: I’m not sure “finalization” is the right word. It seems clear that discussions over management of the Nile will continue for some time before anything is really […]

Full-blown civil war may have been averted in Côte d’Ivoire, but it remains to be seen how the post-election turmoil might influence the behavior of power players in other African elections. “The most important thing in an election is not the voting process but the aftermath,” asserted a recent BBC commentary, which went on to ask, “Will losers accept the verdict? Will the winner humble the vanquished?” Richard Downie, deputy director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic International Studies in Washington, believes Côte d’Ivoire’s election is “a case of precedent,” particularly within the context of U.S. policy […]

The recent takeover by Indian firm Essar Africa Holdings of Zimbabwe’s state-owned iron and steel company, Ziscosteel, is a prime example of India’s efforts to ramp up its economic involvement in Africa. In an email interview, Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, national director of the South African Institute for International Affairs, discussed India’s economic relations with Africa. WPR: What is the current state of Indian investment and development aid in Africa? Elizabeth Sidiropoulos: Indian companies have been operating in Africa for many years, although more recently there has been a substantial increase in investment — from $556 million in 1997 to some $18 […]

Amid high tensions in the Middle East, Omani Foreign Minister Yousef bin Alawi recently met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran and committed to strengthening bilateral ties. The two countries also held joint military exercises in February. In an email interview, David Dunford, a U.S. ambassador to Oman from 1992-1995 who currently teaches political science at the University of Arizona, discussed Iran-Oman relations. WPR: What is the current state of Iran-Oman trade and diplomatic relations? David Dunford: Oman and Iran have long had diplomatic relations, and there was no break in those relations after the Iranian Revolution in 1979. […]

The first round of balloting went smoothly in Peru’s presidential election Sunday, setting the stage for a June 5 run-off between left-leaning former military officer Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori, a pro-market congresswoman and daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori. Humala won 31.6 percent and Fujimora 23 percent in the initial round of voting, according to the Wall Street Journal, which noted Humala’s strategy of employing “Brazilian political advisers who tried to cast him in a more moderate light, in the style of that country’s former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.” If true, it apparently worked, says Christopher […]

The potential long-term impact of the Libya intervention has more to do with changing people’s thinking than with changing the reality on the ground in Libya. The past 40 years have already demonstrated that the West can manage the discrete problem represented by Moammar Gadhafi. What it cannot handle is the aggregate problem represented by a continuation of the status quo, both in the broader region but also in the shifting geopolitical landscape beyond it. By highlighting a number of major shortcomings in that status quo, the Libyan intervention just might be the wake-up call needed to generate a more […]

Turkey’s evolving response to the Libyan crisis is just the “latest indication of its goal to be a power broker on the world stage,” the Associated Press reported earlier this week. Henri Barkey, a visiting scholar in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says the Turkish government has “always thought that in the past, the Turks have punched well below their weight.” “Now, with the Turkish economy doing very well, as the 16th-largest economy in the world . . . Turkey is much more able to play an international role, especially in the Caucusus and […]

According to documents made public by WikiLeaks, improving ties between Russia and Norway have caused strain within NATO. In an email interview, Pavel K. Baev, a research professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, discussed Russia-Norway relations. WPR: What is the recent history of Russia-Norway relations? Pavel K. Baev: The post-Soviet history of Russian-Norwegian relations is by no means problem-free. The long list of incidents and grievances includes spy scandals, arrests — and subsequent dramatic escapes — of trawlers for overfishing, the radar at Vardø administered by the Norwegian Intelligence Service, and Russia’s failed test of a Bulava missile that […]

The last-minute postponement on April 2 of Nigeria’s parliamentary elections raises the stakes in an already tense election cycle that will also decide whether President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian from the country’s oil-rich Niger Delta region, will stay in power for the next four years. The decision by Nigeria’s election commission to push voting back by a week because key election materials had not been properly distributed was met by support, from both Jonathan’s People’s Democratic Party and the leading opposition party, the Action Congress of Nigeria, according to this Bloomberg News report. However, questions remain about the extent to […]

Canada and Japan announced in February that they were formally studying the possibility of concluding a bilateral free trade agreement. In an email interview, Carin Holroyd, a political science professor at the University of Waterloo, discussed economic relations between Canada and Japan. WPR: What is the current state of trade relations between Japan and Canada? Carin Holroyd: Trade between Canada and Japan looks, in many ways, as it has for decades. Canada sells about $9 billion annually of primarily resource products — coal, canola, lumber, copper, pulp and paper, aluminum, wheat, meat and fish — to Japan. In return, Canada […]

The announcement this week that the United States is effectively pulling its longtime support for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh in favor of political transition in Yemen have spawned a fresh wave of reports about the threat of al-Qaida in the country. The country’s political tumult has prompted many Yemeni military troops to abandon their posts, while others have been summoned to the capital, according to the New York Times, which reports that the resulting power vacuum is being filled by al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. The extent and true nature of the al-Qaida threat in Yemen, however, continue to […]

In March, Raymond Davis, a CIA contractor who shot and killed two men rumored to be agents of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, was released in return for a $2 million payment to the victims’ families. In an email interview, Shaun Gregory, a professor at Bradford University and director of the Pakistan Security Research Unit there, discussed relations between the CIA and ISI. WPR: What are the main areas of cooperation — and mistrust — between the CIA and ISI? Shaun Gregory: The interests of the CIA and ISI most closely converge around the fight against al-Qaida as well as […]

Japan recently arrested a South Korean crab fisherman for operating illegally not far from group of islands claimed by both countries. In an email interview, Min Gyo Koo, an expert in East Asian island disputes at Seoul National University, discussed the territorial dispute between Japan and South Korea. WPR: Briefly, what is the history of the territorial dispute between Japan and South Korea? Min Gyo Koo: The disputed islands known as Dokdo in Korea and as Takeshima in Japan are de facto controlled by South Korea, but Japan does not recognize South Korea’s de jure sovereignty. Japan’s fundamental legal claim […]