Over the weekend, members of special mission units under the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command carried out raids in Somalia and Libya, capturing a senior al-Qaida operative in the latter country. While these attacks often come across as lightning strikes in the media, no detail is spared in terms of coordination and preparation. Trend Lines spoke with three experts about the disconnect between how these operations appear versus how they operate. “The events this weekend were both significant and insignificant,” David Maxwell, associate director of the Center for Security Studies and the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, told Trend […]

Global Insider: Somalia Still Unsafe for Large-Scale Refugee Returns

In the aftermath of the late-September attack on Nairobi’s Westgate mall by Islamist militants linked to the Somali terrorist group al-Shabab, Kenyan authorities reportedly stepped up arrests of Somalis living in Kenya. In an email interview, Anna Lindley, a lecturer in migration, mobility and development at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, explained where Somali refugees live and the likelihood of their return. WPR: What are the main concentrations of Somali refugees outside the country, and how long have they been there? Anna Lindley: Nearly 1 million Somalis are registered as refugees in the region of […]

Over the weekend, Tunisia’s Islamist governing party, Ennahda, formally agreed to relinquish power in favor of a caretaker government that will supervise new elections. According to Sherelle Jacobs, Tunisia has managed to avoid the chaos of Egypt’s anti-Islamist collapse in large part because Ennahda has been willing to compromise: Ennahda has avoided alienating secularists and liberals on the same scale as the Muslim Brotherhood during precarious political moments. For example, tensions between Tunisian secularists and Islamists soared overnight following the assassination of Tunisia’s secular opposition leader, Chokri Belaid, in February. The then-prime minister, Hamadi Jebali, immediately responded with political concessions. […]

Sunday was the final day in a three-week registration period for Afghan presidential hopefuls to file their candidacies with Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission. When the commission closed yesterday evening, having stayed open late to accommodate a last-minute flood of registrants, 27 candidates had officially entered the race to succeed President Hamid Karzai in what will be the country’s first democratic transfer of power, with elections scheduled for April 5, 2014. The campaign will take place as most international troops prepare to depart the country by the end of 2014, when the mandate of the International Security Assistance Force officially expires. […]

Last weekend, tens of thousands of protesters rallied in Taiwan against President Ma Ying-jeou, who has become deeply unpopular after a series of scandals. In the latest scandal, Ma, whose approval rating is now below 10 percent, used wiretap data from the Special Investigation Division to demand that Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng step down. Wang, whom Ma has tried to strip of his membership in the ruling Chinese Nationalist party or Kuomintang (KMT), is a political rival of the president’s. But the sources of Ma’s unpopularity run deeper. “Ongoing unrest in Taiwan has both political and economic factors, and will […]

In September, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a Marxist guerilla organization currently attempting to negotiate an end to its nearly five-decade armed conflict with the Colombian government, called for the formation of a truth commission to investigate Colombia’s conflict. In an email interview, Christian Voelkel, an analyst with the Colombia and Andes project at International Crisis Group, explained the role of transitional justice in Colombia’s peace process, which was also the subject of a recent International Crisis Group report. WPR: What is the scope of the transitional justice measures already in place in Colombia? Christian Voelkel: Transitional justice […]

Facing dissent from within his own party over his plans to topple the coalition government of Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, Silvio Berlusconi reversed course today and decided to back down from an attempt to bring down the government. Berlusconi, the former prime minister, prompted the vote of confidence in Italy’s Senate by threatening to withdraw his party’s support from Letta’s government. The resulting backlash, and Berlusconi’s decision to back down, have left the former prime minister weakened. His People of Freedom Party, which has dominated the political scene in Italy for the past two decades, could also suffer consequences. […]

Global Insider: Australia Seeks Assurances From India in Advance of Nuclear Trade Deal

India is seeking to conclude a nuclear trade deal with Australia’s new government by the end of the year. In an email interview, Rory Medcalf, director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute and associate director of the Australia India Institute, explained what’s at stake in their negotiations. WPR: What is at stake in the nuclear trade negotiations between India and Australia? Rory Medcalf: These are safeguards talks aimed at finalizing an agreement to ensure that any Australian uranium exported to India will not be diverted to military uses. Uranium is no longer a make or break issue […]

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