While we are still learning the details of last weekend’s mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group, there is understandable hope that the chaos in Russia might hasten the end of the war in Ukraine. But it is just as likely, perhaps more so, that the Wagner mutiny created conditions that could actually prolong the war.
Mexico’s presidential election is still a year away. But the likely winner of the 2024 contest is being chosen now, as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Morena party begins choosing its candidate. Morena has become such a juggernaut that there’s only a vanishing chance its rivals will defeat the party’s standard-bearer next year.
The short-lived Wagner mutiny in Russia last weekend may not demonstrate that President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power has been weakened. But it does demonstrate that the power of the Russian state he is gripping has been weakened and is an indication of how Putin’s regime is stoking dangerous tensions within Russia’s elite.
The Biden administration’s proposal for U.N. Security Council reform looks likely to protect the veto power of the council’s five permanent members, signaling a lack of true commitment to meaningful reform and a balanced international system. But Global South countries are not waiting for Washington to strengthen multilateralism.
Like all public health crises, Peru’s worst-ever dengue fever outbreak has political roots and implications. The ongoing crisis following former President Pedro Castillo’s ouster last year is affecting the government’s and region’s responses to the outbreak. And the outcome could determine the fate of current President Dina Boluarte.
Who rules the world? In discussions of international politics, the focus is often on states. With the rise of Big Tech, though, some observers have argued that the future of global power will be a story of corporations, not countries. But claims that corporations will dominate the world and surpass states in power are overblown.
In the faceoff between liberal democracies and autocracies, the competing camps are enlisting backers across the globe, and Latin America has become an important battleground. Venezuela has emerged as the epicenter of activity for the anti-Western front, as highlighted by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Caracas last week.
For anyone analyzing Austrian politics during the 1990s, there was no escaping the steady rise of Jorg Haider. The speed with which his vicious targeting of minorities drew support from working-class and lower-middle-class voters upended Austrian politics, presaging an electoral realignment that then unfolded across Europe.
Ukraine has called for an ICC investigation into the bursting of the Kakhovka dam as an act of “ecocide.” But if the ICC does frame the intentional breaching of the dam as an attack on the natural environment rather than on civilians, the relevant rules of international law would not make such a prosecution a simple matter.
In Guatemala’s upcoming presidential election, change is not on the ballot. President Alejandro Giammattei cannot run for reelection, and the candidate for his conservative Vamos party won’t win. But while Giammattei’s party might be unable to hold onto power, it has prevented any candidates who threaten the status quo from winning.
What happens in Ukraine will not stay in Ukraine. That is the essence of an argument commonly made for why the U.S. must support Kyiv in resisting Russian aggression: A failure to stop Russia will give other powers the impression that they can pursue their interests with aggressive impunity. But is that really the case?
On Sunday, Montenegrins voted in an election that was remarkable in part for who was not a candidate. For the first time in more than 30 years, Milo Djukanovic—the country’s dominant political figure—was not on the ballot. But despite that notable change, Montenegro’s road to political stability and EU accession looks rocky.
In Italy, reflections on Silvio Berlusconi’s career have tended to view him as a figure whose influence began to wane a decade ago. For observers in countries where populist politics have emerged more recently, he embodies trends that still define Europe’s fractious politics. These clashing narratives each have a grain of truth.
In 2005, the U.N. was still reeling from the rifts caused by the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and diplomats were furiously debating ideas for reforms to the multilateral system. Fast forward to today, and Russia’s war on Ukraine is dominating U.N. diplomacy. Once again, proposals to reform the institution are also topping the agenda.
Reports that Cuba will host a Chinese spy station are likely to fuel hysterical debates in the U.S. over politics, not policy. Such a nearby facility would pose a threat that should be taken seriously. But a better debate over how the U.S. should respond would start with the correct historical analogy for what is happening today.
A gathering crescendo of voices calling for Ukraine to join NATO had raised hopes among some observers that Kyiv might be offered membership at the alliance’s summit next month. Those hopes have been dashed by recent comments from French and German officials. But despite arguments to the contrary, Ukraine should join NATO immediately.
It’s no secret that Colombian President Gustavo Petro has been struggling. His ambitious domestic agenda has stalled, and his approval ratings have plummeted. But no one could have anticipated the wild new series of scandals that emerged in the past week to threaten his presidency in such spectacular fashion.