Mexico’s presidential election is still a year away. But the likely winner of the 2024 contest is being chosen now, as leading members of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Morena party compete for his favor and the support of his loyal followers.
The party was originally built by AMLO, as Lopez Obrador is known, as a vehicle for his political aspirations and agenda. But it has now become such a juggernaut that there’s only a vanishing chance its rivals will succeed in defeating Morena’s standard-bearer next year. It is a similar dynamic to the one that dominated Mexican politics for nearly a century, when the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, was always assured of victory, so the real contest for the presidency was in choosing its candidate.
Likewise, the Morena primaries, which will be held in a series of five polls over the summer, will effectively select the president of one of Latin America’s most influential countries, as well as its second-largest by population and economy, and third-largest by territory. The five polls will be conducted by the party and four private firms. One firm will be chosen by each of the four candidates.