Column Archive

Last week, the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce, where I am an assistant professor, conducted its annual crisis simulation, which has traditionally attempted to put students in critical decision-making situations under conditions of stress, asymmetric information and lack of sleep. This year’s scenario saw Mexican cartel gunmen attacking the Bellagio Casino in Las Vegas, where Brad Pitt, George Clooney and the rest of the cast of “Ocean’s Eleven” had gathered for a reunion. Unfortunately for Pitt and Clooney, there was no Hollywood ending in the Patterson School’s script — suffice it to say at least Andy Garcia managed […]

This month marks the 20th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the United States and the post-Soviet republic of Azerbaijan, a country that is currently playing a vital role in sustaining NATO forces in Afghanistan, supporting Georgia and other U.S. friends in Eurasia, and helping to moderate Iranian and Russian ambitions in the energy-rich Caspian Basin region. But Washington needs to prioritize its ties with Baku to strengthen the partnership and to make sure that Azerbaijan and its fragile neighbors in the geopolitically vital South Caucasus region remain strong and stable. Following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Azerbaijan was among the […]

Where is the positive vision for U.S. foreign policy in this election? President Barack Obama and on-again, off-again “presumptive” GOP nominee Mitt Romney now duel over who is more anti-declinist when it comes to America’s power trajectory, with both slyly attaching their candidacies to the notion that “the worst” is now behind us. On that score, Obama implicitly tags predecessor George W. Bush, while Romney promises a swift end to all things Obama. Halftime in America? Indeed. But what’s the animating vision, besides rebounding? What course are we setting, besides up? So far, all the candidates’ visions seem negative — […]

Iran’s decision this week to bar International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors from visiting the Parchin military base, which Tehran allegedly used to test components needed to create a nuclear weapon, may prove to be a turning point in the diplomatic standoff over the country’s nuclear program. Up to this point, the “rising democracies” — especially Turkey, India and Brazil — have been unwilling to support efforts by the United States and Europe to further isolate Iran, in part because they have a much narrower definition of what constitutes a “nuclear weapons capability,” which the U.S. says is an unacceptable […]

The moment Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez called Henrique Capriles “a low-life pig” last week, he dispelled any hopes that the ailing, firebrand president would behave graciously or even with something resembling dignity toward his opponent in the country’s upcoming presidential election. The crass language, and what followed, also made it clear that Chávez will pull out all the stops in pursuing Venezuela’s top job for the fourth time, doing everything within his considerable power to remain in office for life. Had the opposition shown its traditional signs of weakness in advance of the October elections, Chávez might have had the […]

Sometime in the next few months, Israel may very well go to war against Iran, and it could draw the United States into the conflict. The global strategy firm Wikistrat, at which I am a senior analyst, recently laid out 10 scenarios for such a war breaking out, each plausible in its own way. Thomas P.M. Barnett wrote in a recent WPR column that he believes that war is inevitable, and even war opponents such as Peter Beinart and Bernard Finel believe that the “Iran hawks” have taken control of the debate. The case for attacking Iran relies overwhelmingly on […]

Russia has disappointingly blocked for now a U.S. State Department initiative to build a network of U.S.-supported counternarcotics centers in Central Asia. In public, Russian officials denigrate the effectiveness of programs to interdict drug transportation through Eurasia and instead have favored concentrating international resources on fighting opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan itself. But some Russian officials’ opposition to the initiative is driven by their desire to minimize the U.S. presence in Central Asia. Formally launched in June 2011 as a $4.1 million State Department program, the Central Asian Counternarcotics Initiative (CACI) aims to establish counternarcotics task forces in all five […]

While America has begun an economic recovery of uncertain strength and staying power, we Americans nonetheless face a far longer-term and more substantial national rebuilding project. This daunting task has placed us in a contemplative space, in which we nervously toggle between bouts of renewed self-confidence and crippling self-doubt. But the same thread runs through both cycles of this national bipolar disorder: the assumption that we must bear this burden alone. That assumption is our greatest weakness right now, for it blinds us to the economic opportunities at hand, while encouraging us to adopt an unwise defensiveness in our national […]

At first glance, the ongoing efforts to remove Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria and the unrecognized referendum held in the majority-Serbian areas of northern Kosovo would not appear to have much in common. But both are symptoms of a larger problem that has accelerated in recent years: the delegitimization of the territorially defined state. The classic definition of a state in the international system, as provided by Max Weber and incorporated into international law by the 1933 Montevideo convention, gives the national government the exclusive right to use force to secure its existence and territory. But that norm is […]

When a bomb attached to an Israeli diplomat’s car exploded in New Delhi earlier this week, it not only injured at least four people, it also seriously damaged India’s hopes of staying out of the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program. There is no confirmation that the attack was carried out by Iran or its ally Hezbollah, as Israel maintains. Still, the incident points to the increasingly untenable efforts by Indian officials to simultaneously nurture close ties with the U.S and strengthen relations with Israel, while maintaining valuable ties with Iran in the face of U.S. and international sanctions. At the […]

Over the past two weeks, the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps conducted Bold Alligator, an exercise off the Atlantic seaboard designed to refine expertise in amphibious operations and test new amphibious capabilities. The exercise included the USS Enterprise supercarrier, three amphibious assault vessels — the USS Wasp, the USS Kearsarge and the USS Iwo Jima — as well as a bevy of support vessels. Nine international partners joined Bold Alligator in some fashion, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain and the United Kingdom, with the French LPD Mistral representing the most significant allied commitment. The […]

Despite receiving little attention in the lengthy written testimony (.pdf) presented to the Senate and House intelligence committees’ recent hearings on threats to the United States, the question of the viability of reaching a peace agreement with the Taliban was raised repeatedly in the discusions at the two public sessions. Many in Congress are rightly concerned about the situation in Afghanistan and any nascent peace process. So it is important to understand the specific risks involved in negotiating with the Taliban before Congress’ last annual hearing on worldwide threats to national security takes place Thursday in the Senate Armed Services […]

While the debate over whether Israel will strike Iran ebbs and flows on an almost weekly basis now, a larger collision-course trajectory is undeniably emerging. To put it most succinctly, Iran won’t back down, while Israel won’t back off, and America will back up its two regional allies — Israel and Saudi Arabia — when the shooting finally starts. There are no other credible paths in sight: There will be no diplomatic miracles, and Iran will not be permitted to achieve a genuine nuclear deterrence. But let us also be clear about what this coming war will ultimately target: regime […]

After a period of healthier ties following the much-heralded reset, U.S.-Russia relations appear to be deteriorating. Whether it was the war of words between U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin last December over the flaws in the Russian Duma elections, or the harsh language used by U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice after Russia vetoed a draft Security Council resolution last week calling on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, the optimism engendered by the Obama administration’s reset with Russia has dissipated. Nor does the immediate future bode well for “resetting the reset.” Putin is […]

It has been frequently noted over the past year that the ongoing turmoil in the Arab world has until now largely spared monarchies in the region. But observers of the region, and its rulers, also know that this state of affairs could suddenly change. As a result, Arab kings and emirs are under pressure to find a new governing formula: reforms that introduce elements of democracy without bringing an end to their rule. Over a number of decades, the emirate of Kuwait has managed to maintain a measure of stability under a system that combines a strong monarchy and an […]

The four-decade-and-counting saga of the A-10 Thunderbolt II ground-attack aircraft continued last week, when the U.S. Air Force announced that it would cut five A-10 squadrons as part of its effort to reduce costs. The 246 remaining A-10s will, according to the Air Force, continue to perform the close air support (CAS) mission until they are eventually replaced by the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Defense wonks met the announcement with a storm of criticism, but little real surprise. The long-running fight over the A-10 represents not so much a disagreement over technology, but rather a bureaucratically driven dispute over the […]

Russia has adopted a surprisingly firm stance regarding the ongoing violent crackdown on domestic opposition in Syria. Despite facing a solid bloc of Western and developing nations calling for strong action against the brutal regime of President Bashar al-Assad, Moscow defiantly vetoed a draft U.N. Security Council resolution this weekend that would have supported the Arab League’s efforts to secure a peaceful transfer of power. Russian officials claimed that the resolution represented a masked call for “regime change” that would only help fuel the conflict. Although China also voted against the proposed resolution, Russia would probably have cast the sole […]