Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting via video conference at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, June 25, 2020 (pool photo by Mikhail Klimentyev via AP Images).

If all goes as planned next week, Vladimir Putin will be on a glide path to serve as Russia’s perpetual president. On July 1, Russia will hold a national referendum on a proposed package of changes to its constitution that many predict will essentially pave the way for Putin to run for office again after his current six-year presidential term expires in 2024. In theory, the proposed changes—which will, among other things, “reset the clock” on the current constitutional limit of two consecutive presidential terms—mean Putin could win two more elections and remain in power until 2036. If he does, […]

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his speech during the Victory Day military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the Nazi defeat, in Moscow, Russia, June 24, 2020 (pool photo by Sergey Pyatakov via AP).

In this week’s editors’ discussion on Trend Lines, WPR’s Judah Grunstein, Elliot Waldman and Prachi Vidwans talk about the Russian constitutional referendum that could clear the way for President Vladimir Putin to hold on to power until 2036. They also discuss the nature of Putin’s rule as well as the relative strengths and weakness of both the regime he has consolidated and Russia’s political opposition. Listen: Download: MP3Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS | Spotify Relevant Articles on WPR:Why Putin’s Bid to Become President for Life Is No Sure ThingRussia Is Weathering COVID-19, No Thanks to Putin Can the Young Activists […]

A Russian soldier stands guard near a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system before a military parade, in central Moscow, May 9, 2020 (Sputnik photo by Evgeny Odinokov via AP).

For the first time ever, the Russian government has publicly released a document laying out the logic and principles underpinning its approach to nuclear deterrence. Formally titled “Fundamentals of Russian State Nuclear Deterrence Policy,” the report was approved by President Vladimir Putin and posted on the government’s official information web portal on June 2. Previous iterations of Russia’s deterrence policy, such as the one associated with the updated military doctrine it unveiled in 2010, were alluded to in public, but never published. Why did Russia decide to publish its deterrence policy now? In part, it could be to dispel alleged […]

A fighter from a militia funded by the United Arab Emirates, stands on the frontline of conflict in Yemen’s Dhale province, Aug. 5, 2019 (AP photo by Nariman El-Mofty). Internationalized civil conflicts increase the chances of war between states.

It is too soon to tell how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect international security. Whether it will provide opportunities for prolonged peace or create conditions for new rivalries and disputes depends on how long the pandemic lasts, how the world moves forward from bungled initial responses and how quickly countries recover from the virus’s societal and economic fallout. But already, the pandemic is exposing and accelerating trends that have made the world more vulnerable to international conflict. That may be surprising, since before the outbreak, most statistics indicated that, on the whole, the world had never been better. People were […]

President Donald Trump's former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, arrives at federal court in Washington, Dec. 18, 2018 (AP photo by Carolyn Kaster).

It may be overshadowed by everything else roiling the United States right now. But the 82-page legal brief filed Wednesday rebuking the Trump administration for its controversial motion to dismiss federal perjury charges against former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn matters immensely for the future of American democracy. John Gleeson, a retired federal judge appointed to evaluate the government’s highly unusual move, argued that Justice Department prosecutors tried to conceal the real reasons for dropping the charges against Flynn last month and that its attempt to wipe Flynn’s record clean was a “gross abuse of prosecutorial power.” There […]

A woman walks near Red Square with St. Basil’s Cathedral in the background, in Moscow, Russia, May 12, 2020 (AP photo by Alexander Zemlianichenko).

Russia’s COVID-19 story is one of paradoxes. Despite an underfunded public health system, new cases have plateaued since mid-May, and the country has not seen the explosion in deaths from the coronavirus that some experts predicted. Yet President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings have been sinking. Why? Russians seem to realize that they have so far avoided the worst in spite of Putin’s government, not because of it. As of June 8, the official total of infections was just over 450,000—the third-highest count in the world after the United States and Brazil—but Russian officials say that is because of their high […]

A Russian Air Force Tu-214 flies over Offutt Air Force Base, a flight allowed under the Open Skies Treaty, in Omaha, Neb., April 26, 2019 (photo by Chris Machian for the Omaha World-Herald via AP).

President Donald Trump’s recent decision to withdraw from the 1992 Open Skies Treaty, which has helped keep the post-Cold War peace, raises the long-term risk of armed conflict in Europe. While unfortunate, abandoning this 34-nation confidence-building measure is consistent with Trump’s years-long policy of confidence-demolition. First proposed by President Dwight Eisenhower in 1955 and negotiated under the George H.W. Bush administration, Open Skies allows signatories, including the United States and Russia, to fly unarmed observation aircraft over one another’s territory. This helps build a measure of transparency and trust regarding each countries’ military forces and activities, thereby enhancing stability and […]