Will the collapse of Moammar Gadhafi’s regime be the salvation of Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela? Even without a forcible overthrow of the “Brother Leader” and the uncertainty of a subsequent interregnum, a protracted Libyan civil war that damages the country’s energy infrastructure could drive energy prices back to 2008 levels. Joshua Schenyer, surveying the landscape, concluded grimly, “Regardless of what comes next in Libya’s lethal political standoff, the OPEC country’s oil sector is nearly certain to suffer, bringing long-lasting supply disruptions or even permanent damage. None of several potential outcomes is benign for Libya’s oil industry — the lifeblood […]

Global Insider: Russia-Pakistan Relations

Russia and Pakistan recently held high-level talks on militancy and nuclear proliferation, a sign of warming relations following lingering Cold War antagonism. In an e-mail interview, Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, discussed Russia-Pakistan relations. WPR: What has been the nature of Russia-Pakistan bilateral relations historically? Dmitri Trenin: For decades, Moscow’s relations with Pakistan have been mostly a function of Russia’s relations with two major powers, the United States and India. During the Cold War, Pakistan aligned itself firmly with Washington, while New Delhi leaned toward Moscow. As an illustration of this dynamic, Soviet-era maps represented the whole […]

Naval power is characterized by fungibility and flexibility. Because of the relatively open nature of the seas, ships and fleets can be transferred between ports and crisis zones in order to conduct operations or exert influence. Indeed, one of the key appeals of naval power is the ability of warships to respond to crises in a variety of locations without requiring a longstanding political and infrastructural commitment. However, of all the major naval powers, Russia remains most tightly constrained by its unfortunate maritime geography. Russian warships based in the Arctic, Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific cannot easily support one another. […]

A new report released on Feb. 11 by the World Health Organization (WHO) on the dangers of alcoholism and its impact on overall health highlights the urgency of Russia’s alcoholism crisis, itself just one part of the country’s broader demographic challenges. Official WHO (.pdf) and Russian statistics paint a horrifying picture on this subject for Russia’s population of 140 million: – Russians 16 and older drink the equivalent of roughly four gallons of pure alcohol per capita each year, almost twice the amount of their American counterparts.– Russia currently has 2 million alcoholics. – The number of Russian children aged […]

Global Insider: Russia-Turkey Relations

Russia and Turkey recently held the first meeting of the Russia-Turkey Joint Strategic Planning Group. The high-level coordination follows the signing of border-cooperation agreements in January. In an e-mail interview, Jenia Ustinova, associate for Russia and Eurasia at Eurasia Group, discussed Russia-Turkey relations. WPR: Historically, what has been the nature of Russia-Turkey relations? Jenia Ustinova: Russia and Turkey are not what one would call traditional allies — in centuries past the Russian and Ottoman empires have often been at odds with each other, competing — at time through armed conflict — for territory, power and influence in the region. During […]

Many observers of the Korean Peninsula have traced the apparent relaxation of tensions there to the supporting contributions made by China and the United States, with attention now focusing on the upcoming inter-Korean dialogue. But Russia’s role in this process also deserves mention, since Moscow can be a positive force regarding the Koreas. Throughout the past decade, under Presidents Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, Russian government policy toward the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) has remained remarkably consistent, adhering to several key goals, strategies, and tactics. In the security realm, Russia’s objectives include […]