The triple catastrophe represented by Japan’s March 11 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear emergency has thus far had two main effects on Japan’s national security policies. First, the crisis has focused the attention of Japanese security managers inward toward domestic humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations. Second, it has reinforced the Japanese-U.S. alliance, which had already been strengthened by the Japanese government’s decision to abandon its earlier quest for a more independent security policy in light of increased external threats from the East Asian mainland. Given this increased salience of external threats, Japan’s earthquake-induced domestic preoccupation may prove to be of […]

Medvedev and Putin: Perception vs. Reality in Russia

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s announcement Monday that he desires a second term as president but won’t run against Prime Minister Vladimir Putin should Putin declare his candidacy has inspired heightened speculation over Russia’s unusual power-sharing duo ahead of elections next March. When attempting to understand the Putin-Medvedev dynamic, Ben Judah, a London-based policy fellow and Russia specialist with the European Council on Foreign Relations, says one must take care not to view the two as being in competition with each other. “It shouldn’t be confused as a battle between two rivals,” Judah reminded Trend Lines earlier this week. “The tandem […]

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) celebrated its 10th anniversary last week, with the leaders of its six member states gathering in Astana, Kazakhstan, for the occasion. In addition to assessing the achievements of the organization’s first decade, SCO leaders also considered the applications of Pakistan, India, Mongolia and Iran for full membership. There are now increasing indications that India and Pakistan might be admitted, although not before next year. Nevertheless, admission of these two nations could alter the mission and global relevance of the SCO as a regional multilateral organization. The SCO was initially created as a security pact to […]

Global Insider: Russia-Iraq Relations

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Iraq in May to discuss investments in Iraqi energy projects, among other issues. In an email interview, Marat Terterov, director and principal founder of the European Geopolitical Forum in Brussels, discussed Russia-Iraq relations. WPR: What is the recent history of Iraq-Russia relations? Marat Terterov: Russia, along with France, was one of Iraq’s closer allies during the 1990s, when Baghdad was heavily isolated and subject to U.N. sanctions. Moscow frequently lent diplomatic support to Baghdad during this period, pushing for the lifting of the oil embargo against Iraq and condemning occasional U.S. and U.K. airstrikes […]

Russia Builds First Floating Nuclear Plant

Russia is building the world’s first floating nuclear power plant for mass production. The plant is designed to create enough electricity for 45,000 people and will have the added ability to purify sea water into fresh water.

Things are not looking good for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The man who built arguably the most stable, authoritarian and centralized administration in the former Soviet Union is now struggling to maintain control. A forced currency devaluation last month wiped out the savings of ordinary citizens, who subsequently took to the streets, plunging Minsk into chaos. Throughout May, Belarus teetered on the brink of economic collapse, and Lukashenko was rumored to be plotting to flee the country. An emergency $3 billion loan package from Russia, technically administered through the Eurasian Economic Community, has stabilized the situation for now, but the […]

During the Cold War, the U.S. installed 7,000 nuclear weapons in Europe because of the perceived military imbalance in favor of the Soviet Union. European governments, unlike their publics, accepted them with the understanding that free riding in a military alliance had its limits. But these tactical nuclear weapons, some of them much more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, led to regular friction within NATO. Since the implosion of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact, more than 90 percent of these weapons have been withdrawn, silently and unilaterally or in a reciprocal way. Today, a total of 200 weapons remain […]

Coverage of last month’s Group of Eight summit in Deauville, France, centered on the leadership crisis at the International Monetary Fund and measures to support new regimes in the Arab world. However, the summit’s most significant achievement may be the dramatic change in Russia’s stance on the conflict in Libya. After months of Russian ambivalence toward the military intervention against Col. Moammar Gadhafi, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev not only joined the other G-8 leaders in a statement declaring that Gadhafi has lost all legitimacy and must step down, but also announced that Russia would help mediate an exit for the […]

Global Insider: Russia-Vietnam Relations

During a recent visit to Vietnam by Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung called for the enhancement of trade and political ties between the two countries. In an email interview, Carlyle A. Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defense Force Academy, discussed Russia-Vietnam relations. WPR: What is the recent history of Russia-Vietnam relations? Carlyle A. Thayer: When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Moscow pressed Vietnam for repayment of debts totaling $1.7 billion, and the two sides took nearly a decade to negotiate a settlement. In 1994, they […]

It is time for President Barack Obama to initiate an informal, tripartite dialogue with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev about stabilizing the global price of oil. Leaving the decision in the hands of speculators has not served the interests of any of these three countries. At midweek, the price, while coming down, still stood higher than $100 a barrel, with Brent crude currently trading at roughly $112 a barrel. Counterintuitively, oil producers are hoping the price descends further, because if oil gets too expensive, customers begin looking for other sources of energy. Last week, speaking […]

What’s Behind Russia’s Libya Shift?

One of the less-reported developments at last week’s G-8 summit was Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s about-face on the Libyan crisis. Medvedev called on Moammar Gadhafi to step down and added that Russia will not offer a safe haven to the beleaguered Libyan leader. Russia has previously been critical of NATO’s bombing campaign in Libya, and with reports now indicating that Moscow seeks to play a mediation role toward negotiating Gadhafi’s exit, close observers are questioning what prompted the policy shift. In an email interview with Trend Lines this week, Richard Weitz, who heads the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the […]