Editor’s note: This will be the final appearance of Thomas P.M. Barnett’s “The New Rules” column at World Politics Review. We’d like to take this opportunity to thank Tom for the insightful, compelling analysis he has offered WPR readers each week for the past three years, as well as for the support he has shown for WPR over that time. We wish him continued success. Amid all our current fears regarding the global economy’s potential “double dip” back into deep recession, a longer-term question stands out: How can a supposedly declining America protect the golden goose that is globalization while […]

Global Insider: Russia-China Military Ties Growing Despite Friction

Russia and China launched their first joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea on Monday. In an email interview, Simon Saradzhyan, a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, discussed military cooperation between Russia and China. WPR: How has Russia-China military and defense cooperation evolved over the past 10 years?Simon Saradzhyan: Bilateral military cooperation has developed steadily thanks to a general rapprochement between China and postcommunist Russia. On top of strong economic ties, the growth is based on the convergence of the two countries’ interests in opposing U.S. global dominance, the development of U.S. missile defenses, the expansion […]

Although the tense standoff between Chinese and Philippine warships at Scarborough Shoal in the northern South China Sea has been walked back from the brink, it is a harbinger of more confrontations to come. Indeed, more such incidents are inevitable if China and the four Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states — the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei — that also claim the sea’s disputed islands and their adjacent waters and resources cannot agree on and implement a robust code of conduct to govern their activities there. Unfortunately, the April 2012 ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh came and […]

As Beijing prepares for a once-in-a-decade change of leadership, the ouster of Bo Xilai and a series of significant financial reforms have been widely seen as signs that reformist elements within the Chinese government are in the ascendency. This analysis may be correct, but it needs to be tempered with a broader look at the Chinese political and policy landscape, which shows that reforms still lag in multiple key areas and that progressive signals are so far limited to the financial sector. The position of the army, a key political constituent, also remains unclear. The political intrigue surrounding the removal […]

Even in the corridors of the Chinese Communist Party’s headquarters in Zhongnanhai, few would have predicted the remarkable rise in China’s comprehensive national strength since Deng Xiaoping launched the Reform and Open policy in 1978. China’s evolution has been one of the most remarkable feats of governance ever seen. But rather than the definitive manual in strategic planning that it is sometimes portrayed as, the history of China’s post-Mao transformation reads more like a great picaresque novel, in which the protagonist has been forced to beg, steal and kill; navigate untold pitfalls and reversals; and escape from several tight squeezes […]

Global Insider: North Korea the True Target for China-South Korea Pipeline Proposal

Jiang Jiemin, the chairman of the China National Petroleum Corp., has reportedly floated the idea of building an undersea pipeline that would deliver Russian natural gas to South Korea via China, as an alternative to a long-discussed plan to build a pipeline connecting Russia, North Korea and South Korea. In an email interview, Se Hyun Ahn, chair of the department of international relations at the University of Seoul, discussed the prospect of a Russia-China-South Korea pipeline. WPR: What are South Korea’s sources of natural gas, and how is it delivered? Se Hyun Ahn: South Korea imports all of its natural […]

There is a popular tendency to characterize globalization as an elite-based conspiracy or as something imposed by greedy outsiders upon unsuspecting native populations, hence the enduring belief in the possibility of its systemic reversal. In truth, the spread of modern globalization reflects a bottom-up demand function, not a top-down supply imposition. People simply crave connectivity — in all its physical and virtual forms — as well as the freedom of choice that it unleashes. This simple truth is worth remembering when we contemplate America’s global role in the decades ahead. Why? Time is most definitely on our side. Given enough […]

Global Insider: Taiwanese President’s Stopover in India Sign of a Warming Trend

Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou made a surprise refueling stop in Mumbai, India, earlier this month while en route to Africa. In an email interview, Fang Tien-sze, an assistant professor at National Tsing-hua University in Hsinchu, Taiwan, and Jabin T. Jacob, assistant director of the Institute of Chinese Studies in Delhi, India, discussed India-Taiwan relations. WPR: How have India-Taiwan relations evolved over the past 10 years? Fang Tien-sze and Jabin T. Jacob: India-Taiwan relations have improved gradually in many areas over the past few years. Bilateral trade has expanded from $1.1 billion in 2001 to $7.6 billion in 2011. The two […]

China’s astounding record of economic growth is shifting the global balance of power and, as a result, creating a new international environment in which Beijing faces enormous pressure from the West to play a constructive role on the world stage. Often, the U.S. and China stand on opposite sides of disputes involving third nations, prompting a curious diplomatic dance — one that will become a more prominent feature of international diplomacy in the years to come. Once an impoverished, inward-facing country, China has become a major trading partner to nations across the globe and a key force in world affairs, […]

South China Sea Sovereignty Disputes Prevent Progress on Preserving Fisheries

In yet another disagreement between China and its neighbors over the disputed South China Sea, the Philippines last week claimed that one of its naval patrols had discovered eight Chinese fishing vessels loaded with illegal catch in an area it considers to be within its own exclusive economic zone. When the Philippine patrol refused to allow the fishing boats to leave the area without discharging their catch, China speeded three maritime survey ships to the area. Since then, the two countries have engaged in a standoff that continues, even though the Philippine warship allowed the fishermen to leave the area […]

International relations experts are pretty much down on everything nowadays. America, we are told, is incapable of global leadership: too discredited overseas, too few resources back home, too little will — period. For a brief moment there, while China held up the global economy during the recent financial crisis, much credence was given to the notion that we were on the verge of a Chinese century. But that popular vision has also waned surprisingly quickly, and now the conventional wisdom centers on China’s great weaknesses, challenges and overall brittleness. Amazingly, where we spoke of a U.S.-China “G-2” arrangement just a […]

The debate over whether or not the United States is in decline is more than just a parlor game among pundits and academics, as the answer to that question informs starkly different policy choices for the country. For significant portions of the anti-interventionist left and right — the latter represented by the small but vocal constituency of GOP presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul — a United States that is in decline ought to cut back on its engagements abroad and avoid playing the role of the world’s policeman, and instead focus on rebuilding America’s domestic institutions, particularly its economy. While […]

Since sovereignty over Hong Kong was returned from Britain to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on July 1, 1997, the island has maintained the rule of law and civil liberties. Nevertheless, politically and economically, Hong Kong has also experienced some degree of “mainland-ization” under the “one country, two systems” system that frames relations between the Special Administrative Region and Beijing. At the same time, economic integration with the island has resulted in a process of “Hong Kong-ization” of the mainland, if less dramatically. The impact of both phenomena has implications not only for relations between the two, but also […]

On April 6, China’s Ministry of Public Security published a list of six Uighurs wanted for “terrorism” and described as “core members of an extremist group” that had recruited and trained members to carry out terror attacks. The move came on the heels of the latest evidence of Uighur unrest in China’s Xinjiang province and of the local authorities’ nervous reactions to it: The accidental explosion last month of a homemade bomb led police to raid a farm near the city of Korla, killing four Uighurs who, the Chinese authorities themselves later admitted, had nothing to do with the explosion. […]

Ever since Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill defined the BRIC group of countries in 2001, policymakers have been closely watching the rise of the presumed leaders of the 21st century. And it was widely expected that as Brazil, Russia, China, India and recently added South Africa exercised growing power in global politics, they would also play a larger role in efforts to promote global development by using their own success as a template for smaller and lesser developed states. At their recent summit in New Delhi, the BRICS heads of state signaled their intention to take up that responsibility. The […]

Workers in the Seagate factory in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China (Photo by Wikimedia user Scoble, under the Creative Commons 2.0 Attribtion).

The economic reforms that began in China in the early 1980s triggered one of the largest population movements in human history. Since they began, in each decade, tens of millions of rural people have left the land to seek higher incomes by working or trading in urban areas. The census in 2000 found that there were more than 120 million migrant workers in Chinese cities. More-recent estimates go as high as 200 million. This massive internal migration has appeared especially dramatic from a Chinese perspective because mobility was severely restricted in Maoist times, making it almost impossible for rural people […]

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