BEIJING — With multiple indicators pointing to a tangible slowdown in the Chinese economy, continuing signals from senior leaders that the country is entering a new period of more-controlled economic growth, and significant reforms afoot, there is growing evidence that China is entering a new phase in its economic development. But deterioration in the global macroeconomic environment has created a new and less benign backdrop for this change, significantly limiting policy options for reform and reducing the margin for error. With domestic systemic financial stress and social tension also both ticking upward, China may be finally forced to confront the […]

South Korean Coast Guard Stabbing Highlights Problem of Illegal Fishing in East Asia

Over the past year, maritime territorial disputes between China and Japan as well as between China and various Southeast Asian states have triggered several incidents at sea, raising tensions in the region and beyond. So last week’s stabbing death of a South Korean Coast Guard officer at the hands of a Chinese fishing boat captain intercepted in South Korean waters understandably raised concerns that a similar crisis might be at hand. Instead, South Korea responded by calling attention to another maritime security challenge facing the region, that of illegal fishing, and invited Japan and China to jumpstart a dialogue mechanism […]

Europe’s unresolved debt crisis has been the major problem facing the global economy of late. Beyond taking center stage for economic policymakers, Europe’s problems led investors to seek refuge in the safe haven of U.S. debt, dubiously anointed the “least dirty shirt” of the global economic landscape. As investors pulled out of faster-growing economies, the capital flight drove down the value of those countries’ currencies, many of which had been bid up at the beginning of 2011. While the problem of overvalued currencies may have receded over the summer, the underlying issue of currency manipulation still threatens the global economy. […]

The “Arab Spring” that started early in 2011 has shaken the entire Middle East. Rulers who had reigned for decades have been toppled; power has changed hands; and the few regimes that are resisting changes are still undergoing tumultuous unrest. Beijing has been forced to face the rapidly changing developments and make adjustments both to monitor the potential repercussions at home and to protect its growing commercial interests in the region. Beijing has responded to the events in the Middle East with tentative policy adjustments aimed at securing domestic stability and minimizing economic losses resulting from the unforseen and sudden […]

Much of what drives America’s current phobias regarding China stems from the dual — and fantastically linear — assumptions of America’s terminal decline and China’s perpetual ascension. We are thus led to believe that China no longer needs the United States and that America, in turn, can do nothing — short of increasing military pressure — to constrain the Middle Kingdom’s rise to global hegemony. On all scores, nothing could be further from the truth. China and the United States suffer a level of strategic interdependency that is vast and shows no signs of reduction. Simply put, America cannot stay […]

The Obama administration entered office three years ago with high hopes that it could repair America’s relationships with other key powers in the world. While some successes were achieved in 2009 and 2010, Washington closes out 2011 facing the sobering reality of simultaneously deteriorating relationships with China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Russia. At the same time, Washington can expect only limited support from its major Western allies in managing a host of global hotspots, as the ongoing eurozone crisis has, in a matter of months, turned European attention away from a more activist and interventionist approach to the world toward […]

Global Insider: China-Turkmenistan Relations

Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov paid a four-day visit to China last month. In an email interview, Kathleen J. Hancock, an associate professor of political science at the Colorado School of Mines, discussed China-Turkmenistan relations. WPR: How have political and economic relations between China and Turkmenistan evolved over the past decade? Kathleen J. Hancock: Since Turkmenistan’s independence in December 1991, its relationship with China has revolved around the supply and demand of natural gas.* While estimates have shifted over time, Turkmenistan is currently estimated to have 265 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves, making it the 12th-most-endowed country, according to the […]

Global Insider: Turkey-China Relations

Turkey and China signed a deal last month for the construction of an underground natural gas storage facility at Lake Tuz in Turkey. In an email interview, Selcuk Colakoglu, an associate professor at the International Strategic Research Institution (USAK) in Ankara, Turkey, discussed relations between Turkey and China. WPR: What is the nature of trade relations between Turkey and China, including the main sectors of trade and direct investment? Selcuk Colakoglu: One of the main motivations of Ankara’s rapprochement with Beijing in the late-1990s was to gain economic benefits for Turkish businessmen in China. However, the increasing trade volume with […]

The recent elections in Egypt and Russia have important lessons for both Washington and Beijing about the contour of politics in the 21st century — and the limits of both authoritarianism and Western-style liberalism. For the past 12 years, as part of its campaign to modernize Russia, the Kremlin has encouraged the spread of new communications technology. However, over the course of his time first as president and then as prime minister, Vladimir Putin’s concern with mass communications focused primarily on shaping television coverage. Meanwhile, the growth in Russians’ mobile phone usage, in particular, has been quite dramatic. If less […]

In the Nov. 22 Republican presidential debate, several candidates argued that the U.S. can no longer afford its foreign aid budget. In previous debates, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney went even one step further, explaining that the United States should not borrow money from China just to give it to other countries as aid. Instead, he argued, we should let the Chinese give aid directly to foreign countries if that is what they want to do. Romney is right to mention China, but he draws the wrong conclusion. China already provides large amounts of aid to countries throughout the developing […]

The United States is on the verge of an industrial renaissance, according to energy experts enthusiastic about technological advances surrounding the “fracking” of shale gas and the processing of “tight oil.” America is sitting on a century-worth of natural gas, and the Western hemisphere boasts five times the reserves in unconventional oil as the Middle East claims in the conventional category. Suddenly, all our fears of resource wars with China and never-ending quagmires in Southwest Asia seem to melt away, heralding with great certainty another American century based on the promise of energy independence. As “deus ex machina” moments go, […]

A look at Vietnam’s recent diplomatic moves shows Hanoi increasingly diversifying and intensifying its relations with major powers, a pattern that should be seen as an effort by Hanoi to deal with a more forceful China. Like many countries in the region, Vietnam is increasingly dependent on either direct or indirect economic links with fast-growing China. Furthermore, Vietnam’s political and economic system is similar to — if not modeled after — China’s. Maintaining a friendly relationship with their big neighbor is therefore the top priority of Vietnam’s leaders. Both sides have officially pledged to build a comprehensive partnership, guided by […]