BEIJING — At its recent plenary session in Beijing on Oct. 14-18, the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee rubber-stamped the country’s latest five-year economic plan, oversaw the further emergence of a new generation of political leaders and issued a number of significant policy announcements. Taken together, these events signal a changing political tide in Beijing and the ascendancy of the CCP’s Maoist-influenced “Princeling” faction in the run-up to the 2012 leadership transition. The Princeling faction is so named because many of its key figures are the sons of revolutionary heroes. The Princelings effectively represent the CCP’s traditionalist wing, littering their […]

Rail Links as Leading Indicator

A number of rail link items have caught my attention recently, and I thought it worthwhile to pass them along. The first is this massive China-Turkey joint development of a Turkish high-speed rail project, with China financing the project to the tune of an estimated $30 billion. The second is this Burma project linking its deep-water port of Kyaukphyu to Kunming, the capital of China’s southwestern province of Yunnan. Then there’s this one, in Africa, linking South Sudan to Uganda. And finally, there’s this rundown of the current rail projects in Southeast Asia. We often talk about ties between two […]

The Nobel Committee’s decision to award jailed Chinese democracy activist Liu Xiaobo the 2010 Peace Prize came just days before China’s Communist Party elite anointed political princeling Xi Jinping as President Hu Jintao’s clear successor, highlighting the two Chinas that now seem to be passing one another like ships in the night. One China is propelled from below by a coastal workforce that is increasingly self-confident in its skills and accomplishments and growing income. The other, larger China is managed from above by political leaders who increasingly worry over the nation’s social stability as they grow more self-defensive in their […]

The news that Turkey and China had organized a joint military exercise at the huge Konya airbase in Turkey’s central Anatolian region last month came as a surprise to many. After all, just a year ago, when clashes between Uighur and Han Chinese broke out in China’s Xinjiang province in July 2009, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Chinese authorities of mishandling a situation that he compared to “genocide.” What explains such a dramatic improvement in relations between Turkey and China? And how should this military exercise be understood in the context of the current shifts taking place in […]

When the Nobel committee selected Liu Xiaobo as the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, the distinction brought unwanted attention to China. For obvious reasons, Beijing did not want the world honoring a man who has dedicated decades to challenging the country’s political system. But Beijing, in fact, seems uncomfortable with any kind of attention. Earlier this year, when the Chinese economy overtook Japan’s to become the second-largest in the world, Chinese officials seemed determined to downplay what is by any measure an impressive achievement, declaring that the rising Chinese powerhouse remains “a developing country.” To be sure, China […]

With nations scouring the globe in pursuit of dwindling mineral supplies, the world’s attention has shifted to Mongolia, a country some are heralding as the next resource success story. Among the last places on earth with rich, untapped mineral deposits, this landlocked, underdeveloped country is expected to become one of the world’s fastest-growing economies over the next decade — if, that is, it can address a set of daunting challenges and bring these resources to the market. According to some estimates, there is about $1.3 trillion worth of untapped coal, gold, silver, copper, uranium and zinc deposits in what is […]

Since the financial crisis broke in 2008, the United Nations Security Council has looked like a poor relation to the newly empowered Group of Twenty (G-20). While world leaders tackled the crisis at biannual G-20 summits, ambassadors in New York got on with the daily grind of reviewing peace operations and routinely condemning far-flung atrocities. The council has occasionally been in the limelight, not least during this summer’s tortuous negotiations over new sanctions on Iran. But a top-level meeting on the council’s role convened by Turkey this September was an illustrative bore, producing a statement calling for a “continuous process […]

Asian Currency Cooperation: China’s Missed Opportunity

One of the pitfalls of the kind of quick analysis that goes into blog posts is that it’s possible, and sometimes even necessary, to click that “publish” button before an argument is fully formed or developed. In my case, when that happens, what’s often missing are the intermediate thought processes that lead from whatever triggers a post to its takeaway. In reading back over it, I think this post on Asian currency cooperation from yesterday is a good example of what I’m talking about. The Ulrich Volz article that triggered the post essentially argued that singling out the yuan exchange […]

Asian Currency Coordination

Writing at the East Asia Forum, Ulrich Volz argues that instead of pressuring China to allow the yuan to appreciate, we should be encouraging a regional approach to East Asian currency exchange rates. The problem with leaning on any one currency with regard to the dollar, but in isolation to the others, is that it threatens the exchange-rate stability upon which the increasingly specialized intra-regional chain of production depends. A coordinated regional approach, by contrast, would stabilize intra-regional networks independently of the dollar, thereby allowing for greater flexibility of the whole vis Ă  vis external markets. In other words, the […]

It is hard for most Americans to fathom why the U.S. military should be involved in either Afghanistan or northwest Pakistan for anything other than the targeting of terrorist networks. And since drones can do most of that dirty work, few feel it is vital to engage in the long and difficult task of nation-building in that part of the world. These are distant, backward places whose sheer disconnectedness relegates them to the dustbin of globalization, and nothing more. If only that were true. But as globetrotting journalist Robert D. Kaplan makes eminently clear in his new book, “Monsoon: The […]

BEIJING — Urban legend tells of an American businessman who, visiting a factory in China’s Guangdong Province, witnesses working conditions forbidden by Chinese law. When he inquires about them, the factory owner replies sharply, “Laws made in Beijing mean nothing in Guangdong.” Though apocryphal, the story reflects the localism and institutional inconsistency that are core aspects of the modern Chinese economy. Mao Zedong’s attempts to bring centralization and uniformity to an economic system of continental proportions resulted in paralysis. In the reform era, previously suppressed network connections have regenerated quickly, resulting in increasing heterogeneity and even fragmentation within the economic […]

Global Insights: Kyrgyzstan Election Benefits Regional Security

Few would have expected it to be possible a few months ago, but Kyrgyzstan managed to hold a free, fair, and surprisingly non-violent and trouble-free parliamentary election this weekend. In an assessment widely shared by regional experts, David Trilling, writing at EurasiaNet, concluded, “Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary elections couldn’t have gone better.” Turnout exceeded 50 percent of the country’s 2.8 million eligible voters and produced sharply divided results that will force political leaders to compromise to form a coalition government. Five political parties, out of the 29 that participated, overcame the 5 percent threshold required to receive seats in the 120-member parliament. […]

After having cooperated to an unprecedented degree — on stimulus spending and new bank rules, for instance — to avoid a global meltdown these past two years, the world’s major economies now appear ready to turn on one another with truly self-destructive vengeance. Poorly informed Americans are increasingly convinced that free trade pacts — and not our uniquely high corporate tax rates — are responsible for sending jobs overseas, and they want to see China punished with tariffs on its imports for its undervalued currency. With China’s neighbors intervening heavily to keep their own currencies from rising too high in […]

China, Greece and the EU

I think it’s premature to compare China’s assurances that it will buy Greek government-issued bonds when they return to the market to the Marshall Plan, as VĂ©ronique Salz-Lozac’h does. But I agree that the Chinese commitment to Greece is very significant, for two reasons. First, it represents a bridgehead for China to develop closer bilateral ties on a win-win basis with EU member states. Given the tenor of EU-China relations at the moment, as well as the size advantage that China sacrifices when dealing with the bloc as a whole, that works to China’s benefit. Keep in mind, too, that […]

Recent rumors that China had effectively banned rare metal exports to Japan over a thorny territorial dispute have thrust the issue of rare earth elements to the fore. With demand rising and Beijing continuing to tighten its stranglehold over the dwindling supply of rare earths, other countries are now scrambling to secure their own access to the key strategic resource. The 17 varieties of rare earth elements, which are scattered across the Earth’s crust, are essential components in important technology products ranging from televisions and cell phones, to precision-guided missiles and hybrid cars. Approximately 130,000 tons of rare earths are […]

After decades of peace and growing prosperity, the strategic environment in Asia is increasingly marked by tension and rivalry. China’s rise as an economic and military power has forced its neighbors to reassess their relative standing. Some, like India, have pushed back directly against growing Chinese influence where they can. Others, like Vietnam, have set aside historical enmity to seek closer ties with the United States. Meanwhile, a region-wide arms race is gathering steam, especially in naval capabilities. World Politics Review takes this opportunity to review the strategic environment in Asia through recently published articles on the Balance of Power […]

BEIJING — The news that China has overtaken Japan as the world’s second-largest economy was seen by many as further evidence of the Sleeping Dragon’s unstoppable geopolitical re-awakening. Equally significant, however, is the recent standoff between the two countries over the disputed Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands, which serves as a stark reminder of the regional difficulties China faces. The incident demonstrates the volatility that characterizes international relations in Asia as it experiences rapid and fundamental changes to its constellations of power and influence. To achieve global superpower status, China will first have to become not only a dominant, but also a […]

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