An F-35 arriving back at the British Royal Air Force's Akrotiri base in Cyprus, after flying in operational missions against the Islamic State, June 24, 2019 (Press Association photo by Jacob King via AP).

In a long-anticipated move, the White House recently notified Congress of its intent to sell advanced F-35 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates. The Trump administration was able to overcome Israel’s initial objections to the move, which followed the normalization agreement that the U.S. brokered between the UAE and Israel. If the deal goes through, it will make the UAE only the second Middle Eastern country after Israel to fly the F-35, though Saudi Arabia and Qatar have also expressed interest. Turkey had been a partner in developing the F-35 but was kicked out of the program by the […]

The aftermath of a suicide car bombing that killed and wounded several Afghan troops, in Kabul, Afghanistan, Nov. 13, 2020 (AP photo by Ahmad Seir Nassiri).

If American policy in Afghanistan was a Hollywood thriller, acting Pentagon chief Christopher Miller’s announcement Tuesday that President Donald Trump plans to reduce the number of American troops in the country from 4,500 to 2,500 by the time he leaves office in January might have made for a riveting plot twist. The trouble for White House script writers is that we’ve all seen this movie before, and it never seems to end with a better outcome for the Afghan people. The one hidden benefit of Trump’s drawdown announcement is that it could free up Joe Biden to write an alternative […]

Polisario Front rebel soldiers in the Western Sahara region of Tifariti, May 20, 2008 (AP photo by Daniel Ochoa de Olza).

Editor’s Note: Every Friday, Andrew Green curates the top news and analysis from and about the African continent. Subscribers can adjust their newsletter settings to receive Africa Watch by email every week. The decades-long dispute between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front in the region of Western Sahara is threatening to erupt into a full-blown war. Frustrated by the lack of international attention to its cause and angered by a recent Moroccan military operation in a United Nations-monitored buffer zone, the Polisario Front broke a three-decade-long cease-fire agreement last weekend. U.N. officials are scrambling to restore the broken deal, as […]

Armenian self-propelled artillery units during the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Nov. 18, 2020 (AP photo by Sergei Grits).

Last week’s Russia-brokered agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended 44 days of bloody clashes over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh—the first interstate war fought by conventional forces in recent years. The deal calls for Armenia to give up large swathes of territory in and around the breakaway region, which lies within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the deal “incredibly painful.” The ostensible Azerbaijani victory, gained at substantial cost in men and materiel, has triggered intensive interest among military analysts about the conflict’s lessons for future warfighting. In particular, the wearing down of Armenian air […]

Ethiopian refugees gather in the al-Qadarif region in eastern Sudan, Nov. 16, 2020 (AP photo by Marwan Ali).

When a Nobel Peace Prize winner goes to war little more than a year after receiving the world’s most prestigious honor, it may come as a shock. But when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the prize in 2019, announced last week that he was launching a military offensive against one of his country’s ethnic regions, the news didn’t surprise close observers. Despite the sudden outbreak of large-scale fighting between federal forces and the heavily armed Tigray regional government, tensions had been building steadily since Abiy became prime minister in 2018 and later dissolved Ethiopia’s ruling coalition, which included […]

Russian peacekeepers patrol an area in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Nov. 14, 2020 (AP photo by Dmitry Lovetsky).

Armenia and Azerbaijan signed an agreement last week to end six weeks of bloody fighting over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. The Russia-brokered deal requires Armenia to give up much of the territory it controlled prior to the recent hostilities, and calls for Moscow to maintain a peacekeeping force of just under 2,000 soldiers. The agreement was widely seen as a win for Russia, which has regained substantial influence in the South Caucasus region, and for Turkey, whose military support for Azerbaijan was critical to the gains it made on the battlefield. Western powers were largely left out in the […]

Russian peacekeepers’ military vehicles at a check point in the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Nov. 17, 2020 (AP photo by Sergei Grits).

In late September, the frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh rapidly heated up. The six weeks of full-scale war that followed left thousands dead and tens of thousands more displaced. Unlike previous rounds of fighting that resulted in little exchange of territory, however, Azerbaijan’s well-armed and well-prepared military was able to make substantial gains on the battlefield, with significant support from neighboring Turkey. Just as Azerbaijani forces looked poised to advance deep into Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia brokered a deal between the two sides to bring the fighting to an end last week, under terms that […]

A Syrian boy rides a bicycle through a devastated part of the old city of Homs, Syria, Feb. 26, 2016 (AP photo by Hassan Ammar).

Editor’s Note: Every Monday, Managing Editor Frederick Deknatel highlights a major unfolding story in the Middle East, while curating some of the best news and analysis from the region. Subscribers can adjust their newsletter settings to receive Middle East Memo by email every week. Nov. 13 marked a grim milestone in Syria: 50 years since Hafez al-Assad, then a young Alawite air force officer from the coastal hills outside Latakia, seized power in a bloodless coup. At the time, it was just the latest in a string of coups and countercoups in Damascus—starting with the Arab world’s first military putsch […]

A man carries a child across a street in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Nov. 13, 2020 (AP photo by Mulugeta Ayene).

Editor’s Note: Every Friday, Andrew Green curates the top news and analysis from and about the African continent. Subscribers can adjust their newsletter settings to receive Africa Watch by email every week. With the conflict between Ethiopian troops and forces from the northern Tigray region rapidly escalating this week, more than 14,500 refugees from the region have flooded into neighboring Sudan. United Nations officials are now warning of a looming humanitarian crisis. But Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is resisting international calls for de-escalation and negotiation until leaders of the region’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, have been captured […]

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Denis Mukwege speaks at a news conference in Oslo, Norway, Dec. 11, 2018 (NTB Scanpix photo by Lise Aserud via AP).

In 2018, the Congolese gynecologist Denis Mukwege was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his work to end rape as a weapon of war. Speaking to a rapt and tearful audience at that year’s Nobel award ceremony in Oslo, he mentioned a report that was “gathering mold in an office drawer in New York.” The 550-page tome he referred to was released by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights in October 2010. It painstakingly documented and mapped the locations of 617 instances of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and perhaps even genocide, allegedly committed by local combatants, militias […]

Ethiopian Orthodox Christians pray for peace during a church service at the Medhane Alem Cathedral in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Nov. 5, 2020 (AP photo by Mulugeta Ayene).

Editor’s Note: Every Friday, Andrew Green curates the top news and analysis from and about the African continent. Subscribers can adjust their newsletter settings to receive Africa Watch by email every week. Ethiopia’s military declared it has “entered into a war” with leaders of the northern Tigray region Thursday, escalating a conflict that could tear apart Africa’s second-most populous country and destabilize the Horn of Africa. Troops from across the country are reportedly massing at the border of Tigray in response to what Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said was a deadly attack this week on a federal military camp, which […]

The site of a truck bomb attack in Ghanikhil district, Nangarhar province, Afghanistan, Oct. 3, 2020 (AP photo by Wali Sabawoon).

After more than a month of negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government, progress toward a peace agreement remains slow. The key unknown variable is whether the United States has an appetite for staying involved in the long grind of overseeing a peace process that must reconcile two divergent views of Afghanistan’s future—which can only be answered by the winner of this week’s presidential election. The Taliban recognize this, too, and made a foray into American politics last month, announcing their desire to see President Donald Trump win a second term, before hastily backtracking. The reason for the Taliban’s […]