According to the United Nations, today marks the birth of the world’s 7 billionth person, an event sure to cause great angst among the many surviving Malthusians who still believe that humanity’s ingenuity and the planet’s resources are both finite. But thanks to globalization’s continued advance and the modernization it enables, roughly four-fifths of humans live in societies with falling birth rates and half live in societies featuring lower than replacement-rate fertility. So we now know that the trajectory of global population growth will proceed somewhat more slowly toward our eighth and ninth billions, and that we may never reach […]

WPR on Radio France International: EU Debt Agreement

On the merits of this article, Radio France International contacted me last Thursday to do a telephone interview on the EU debt agreement, for a piece that aired on Friday. So far the deal hasn’t been entirely outrun by events, but it looks like that might soon be the case. I’m tempted to say that without a solid European growth horizon, no virtual package is going to do the trick. On the other hand, eventually the numbers will be large enough to cover the basic math of the crisis, because it feels like the political tipping point regarding a European […]

WPR on France 24: The World Last Week

I had the pleasure of participating in France 24’s panel discussion program, The World This Week, last Friday. The other panelists were the IHT’s Anne Bagamery, AFP’s Dave Clark and RTL 4’s Stefan de Vries. Topics included the EU debt crisis agreement, Tunisia’s elections and the emergence of democratic Islamism in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, and the end of NATO’s mission in Libya. Part one can be found here. Part two can be found here. It was a fun and informative discussion. I was especially surprised to learn from Stefan, who was in Brussels covering the EU summit, […]

The EU’s ‘Shock and Awe’ Debt Crisis Package

European Union leaders have yet again come up with a detail-free plan to address the European debt crisis, with the hope being that this one with be massive enough to have the needed “shock and awe” effect to calm markets. Whether or not it will be enough to have more than an immediate impact remains to be seen. How will European banks recapitalize without consolidating their holdings, at a time when bank shares have been falling? Who will actually pony up the money to reinforce the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)? How realistic is the Greek austerity budget? And how […]

Editor’s note: This is the first in a two-part series examining the European Union’s approach toward the integration of the Balkans into the union. Part I examines the record of EU integration to date. Part II will examine the road ahead. The European Commission’s (EC) recent progress reports on the Western Balkan countries, released in October, mark the latest stage in a long process designed to bring a region devastated by post-Communist conflict into the European fold. The European Union’s influence on the Balkans over the past decade has certainly been positive, drawing the countries away from armed conflict and […]

Argentina’s Kirchner Wins Big, but How Long Can It Last?

A recent wave of economic prosperity in Argentina may have swept incumbent President Cristina Kirchner to a second term last weekend. But with the election now past, some observers are questioning how long Kirchner can maintain subsidy-heavy policies supporting her nation’s growth and, more importantly, how long she can hold onto the positive public opinion that has accompanied that growth. Argentina’s economic success of recent years, says Karen Hooper, a Latin America analyst with the private intelligence company STRATFOR, “has been strong because of strong stimulus policies from the government.” Such policies center largely on subsidies for energy and food, […]

Global Insider: South Africa’s Arms Industry

Last month, South Africa unveiled the first-ever military plane to be designed and produced by an African country. In an email interview, John Dunne a specialist in defense economics at the Bristol Business School, discussed South Africa’s arms industry. WPR: What is the recent trajectory and current state of South Africa’s domestic arms industry? John Dunne: South Africa’s arms industry has been through considerable change since the end of apartheid rule. After serving as a comprehensive system supporting the apartheid state, it was allowed to decline under the post-apartheid government, with the state procurement and production entity Armscor being split […]

Recently, authorities in Myanmar have made a series of moves that some observers have interpreted as signaling a new course under the government of President Thein Sein, elected in March. Prominent among these shifts are the suspension of the Chinese-sponsored Myitsone dam project on the Irrawaddy River and an amnesty that has freed more than 6,000 prisoners, including at least 200 political prisoners. Yet, with these moves, the government seems to be searching more for ways to ease China’s political and economic influence in the country than for avenues of democratic reform. On Sept. 30, Thein Sein announced in parliament […]

The Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act, approved in the U.S. Senate last week by a majority of 63 to 35, risks damaging U.S.-China relations and further eroding Washington’s economic standing in the international community, and all for very little reward. The bill calls for retaliatory trade measures against countries that maintain an undervalued currency, and while it does not mention China by name, the United States’ largest trading partner is clearly its main target. The Chinese yuan is without doubt undervalued, but this is only one of a number of factors contributing to the U.S. trade deficit. Moreover, at […]

Asia’s U.S.-China Dilemma

Amitav Acharya is one of the sharpest and best-informed analysts on Southeast and East Asia out there. We had the pleasure of including an article by him in our Regional Integration in Asia feature issue last year. He’s written a typically thoughtful op-ed on Southeast Asia’s U.S.-China dilemma that I recommend as a companion piece to Hillary Clinton’s article in Foreign Policy last week. Anyone following the region will be familiar with the broad strokes of what Acharya’s dealing with: Southeast and East Asia need to hitch their economic wagons to China’s rise, but they can’t feel comfortable doing so […]

Occupy Europe: Thousands March in Germany & Spain

Thousands staged demonstrations against the power of banks and for greater democracy in German cities on Saturday, while several thousand Spanish teachers and parents marched in the capital Madrid to protest against austerity measures. This report by the Russian government-owned Russia Today examines the protests.

Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivered an important policy address on what she called “economic statecraft.” In it, she announced that the United States will update its foreign policy priorities to include economic considerations, arguing that doing so will strengthen both our standing abroad and our economy at home. Among other measures, Clinton said that the State Department will do more to help U.S. companies compete for opportunities in emerging markets, including advocating for them and working to level the playing field between private companies operating on market principles and state-owned companies pursuing strategic goals. Clinton is […]

Global Insider: India-Indonesia Relations

Indonesia and India launched negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement at the first Indonesia-India Biennial Trade Ministers’ Forum held earlier this month. In an email interview, David Brewster, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defense Studies Center, discussed India-Indonesia relations. WPR: What is the recent history of India-Indonesia relations? David Brewster: Political and economic ties between India and Indonesia have been quite thin for most of their modern history. Although their leaders shared many ideals at independence, the two countries later became rivals in the Non-Aligned Movement and developed quite different strategic orientations. However, for […]

U.S.-Philippine Military Drills Signal Strategic Shift in Manila

Some 3,000 U.S. and Filipino marines have begun two weeks of joint training drills, including a hostile beach-assault exercise near the Spratly Islands — a patchwork of islets and atolls at the center of maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea. While U.S. military officials assert the drills are not aimed at China or any other country as a specific target, Marvin Ott, an Asia expert at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, says they represent an obvious strategic move by Washington to counter growing Chinese efforts to claim sovereignty and exert dominance over the South China Sea. […]

Global Insider: Turkey-Russia Energy Relations

Turkey’s energy minister announced earlier this month that the state-owned gas company BOTAS would not renew a gas deal with Gazprom when it expires in December due to a pricing dispute. In an email interview, Hasan Selim Ozertem, a researcher at Turkey’s International Strategic Research Organization, discussed Turkey-Russia energy relations. WPR: What is the nature of Turkey and Russia’s energy relationship, including gas and nuclear energy? Hasan Selim Ozertem: Russia is Turkey’s main energy supplier, with their energy relationship dating back to the Cold War period. In the post-Soviet era, relations have been positive, particularly in the area of natural […]

Global Insider: China-Mexico Trade Relations

Mexico’s economy minister sent China a formal letter last month expressing concern over unfair trade practices used by certain Chinese firms to avoid customs duties. In an email interview, Rhys Jenkins, a specialist in China’s trade relations with Latin America at the University of East Anglia, discussed the trade relationship between China and Mexico. WPR: What is the history of China-Mexico trade ties? Rhys Jenkins: Trade between Mexico and China has grown spectacularly over the past decade from a little more than $3 billion in 2000 to almost $50 billion in 2010. The trade balance, however, has been massively in […]

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