Economics & Business Archive

In the midst of deep crisis, cooler heads rarely hold sway — at least in the public discourse. Thus it was that just a year ago, we heard from many experts — and joyous activists — that globalization was on its deathbed: The global economy was on the verge of a great and permanent unraveling. It was to be an inexorable and exact reversal of everything that defined the go-go globalization of the 1990s, replete with social and political unrest of the highest order. In effectively re-enacting the Great Depression of the 1930s, we even faced the incredible prospect of […]

Popularly, Madagascar is known as an exotic and verdant island populated by cheeky animated characters voiced by some of Hollywood’s biggest stars. But politically, it remains one of Africa’s most volatile countries, regularly awash in coups, plots and prevarications that keep its tourist-dependent population in grinding poverty. The latest installment in the Indian Ocean island’s saga of political exploitation would seem to combine the two, pitting a yogurt salesman against a radio disc jockey in the battle for supremacy. In March 2009, following weeks of anti-government protests, Andry Rajoelina — the fresh-faced mayor of the capital, Antananarivo — ousted President […]

The “fog of sanctions” has descended on Washington, obscuring what this week’s proposed U.N. Security Council resolution can accomplish in stifling Iran’s drive to nuclear weapons. No less perilous than the “fog of war” that besets generals, the “fog of sanctions” prevents pundits and politicians from having a clear view of the power and potential of this draft document (.pdf), which may be the strongest set of smart sanctions ever developed by the Security Council. The resolution’s first strength is that it undermines real assets and capabilities that Iran might use for weapons production. The document astutely mixes compulsory and […]

The last few weeks have been disappointing ones for European diplomacy and energy politics, to say the least. At the beginning of April, Russia began construction of the Nord Stream pipeline, which will bring up to 55 billion cubic meters a year of additional Russian gas to Germany, bypassing non-EU transit countries as well as the Baltic republics and Poland. Moscow also began floating proposals for a joint-venture between Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz, raising the real possibility of Russian participation in the troublesome Ukrainian pipeline network. Although the EU initially opposed the two Russian initiatives, Brussels ultimately expressed acceptance. Its […]

The curtain rose on yet another act in the Iran drama this week. It began with the “diplomatic breakthrough” achieved by Brazil and Turkey: an Iranian agreement in principle to the fuel swap proposal, by which uranium is sent out of the country, turned into fuel rods, and returned for peaceful, civilian use. The plot thickened with the announcement by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that the other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — and in particular Russia and China — had agreed to bring to the table for discussion a draft resolution imposing a fourth set […]

PRISTINA, Kosovo — As you travel through the new Balkan countries, the national yearning to join the West assaults your senses. From private conversations in the region to signs scrawled on walls and European flags flapping in the wind, the sentiment is clear. In fledgling countries, such as Kosovo and Macedonia, the fervent wish translates into a near-compulsion to do whatever it takes to join the European Union. That deep desire persists in the face of the recent drama of Greece’s — and Europe’s — economic crisis and the shrinking value of the common European currency, the euro. Nearby, however, […]

For the first time since American and Soviet missiles silently faced off across the vast, icy expanse of their northernmost Arctic territories during the Cold War, the Arctic is again becoming a strategic concern. As global climate change forces both permanent and seasonal sea ice to recede, the world is gaining what amounts to a brand new ocean — one that has never been fished, rarely navigated, and has waters that are thought to be rich with natural resources. In 2009, the United States Geological Survey estimated that the Arctic contains over 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic […]

When Timor-Leste’s President José Ramos-Horta survived an assassination attempt two years ago, he forgave the rebel leader behind it. Similarly, he has struck a conciliatory tone with Indonesia, despite its violent 1975-1999 occupation of Timor-Leste, and focused on the growing political and economic ties between the two countries. His leadership has emphasized the value of moving beyond the past. But in this interview, Ramos-Horta, who shared a Nobel Peace Prize in 1996 for his nonviolent work toward independence, reflects on the successes and failures of the U.N.’s 1999-2002 peacekeeping mission and of subsequent international aid in Timor-Leste. The U.N., he […]

Get a .pdf version of this report. In his state of the nation address to parliament on June 3, 2009, although speaking against a bleak recessionary backdrop, South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma was at pains to stress policy continuity, referring to the country’s “functional constitutional democratic system” as the basis for celebrating “our culture of continuity and collective responsibility . . . [which makes] us a unique country in many respects.” Zuma further committed South Africa, among other things, to prioritizing Africa, strengthening regional integration in southern Africa, and supporting peace on the continent. His address was all the more […]

Yesterday’s joint declaration by Brazil, Turkey and Iran does not end the Iranian nuclear crisis. With luck, it may mark the beginning of the end, though it will need to overcome some major hurdles even to achieve that goal. In their trilateral statement, the three governments propose that Iran “deposit” 1,200 kilograms of its low-enriched uranium in Turkey pending receipt within one year of 120 kilograms of more-highly enriched uranium suitable for Tehran’s Research Reactor (TRR). Since early last year, the Iranian government has been seeking to acquire specially enriched uranium fuel for the TRR. The reactor, built by the […]

Greece’s financial crisis, and its accompanying social protests and violence, has sent shockwaves across the world. Although the crisis is generally viewed as an economic and sovereign debt issue, its larger significance may ultimately lie within the geopolitical realm. As leaders in virtually every developed country, including the United States, are beginning to realize, they, too, will sooner or later face the same sort of fiscal challenges now confronting Athens. Eventually, this growing debt awareness will put pressure on defense budgets and, ultimately, on alliance structures. Specifically, what’s at stake is a global security architecture established by the United States […]

The Obama administration is moving ahead with a James Baker-style strategy in attempting to persuade Russia to support stronger and stricter sanctions against Iran. This week, the president submitted the “123 Agreement” on civilian nuclear cooperation to Congress. The agreement had been initialed during the Bush administration, but was withdrawn from congressional consideration after the Russia-Georgia war in 2008. It will now take effect unless both houses of Congress pass legislation to block its implementation within a 90-day period. The agreement matters a great deal to the Russian nuclear industry, which, along with the country’s oil and gas complexes, makes […]

MONROVIA, Liberia — Almost a year ago, President Barack Obama used his long-awaited speech in Ghana to address a question with which the African continent is all too familiar: corruption. “No country is going to create wealth if its leaders exploit the economy to enrich themselves,” Obama lectured his audience in the Ghanaian Parliament. Since then, the question of corruption has taken on added urgency, and not just in Africa. The visit this week to Washington by Afghan President Hamid Karzai highlighted the degree to which U.S. concerns over widespread Afghan corruption have taken a back seat to war-time priorities. […]

Last week, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was informally tapped to mediate negotiations between Iran and the West over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly told his “brother,” Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, that Iran was prepared to accept Brazilian mediation “in principle.” The starting point for talks will be the same as last fall’s nuclear fuel swap deal, whereby Iran was to ship its enriched uranium to France and Russia for reprocessing, after which the reprocessed fuel would be returned to Iran for use in the Tehran medical reactor. But while Lula is […]

Iran’s alleged clandestine pursuit of a nuclear-weapon capability dominated the headlines last week during the ongoing Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference. However, beyond the theatrics of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s verbal exchange, it is important to remember, and ultimately to address, the root cause of the Iranian nuclear problem — namely, the spread of dual-use technologies such as uranium enrichment to countries outside the ring of first-order world powers. The problem with uranium enrichment is its ambiguity: It is a vital component of the civilian nuclear power industry, yet it can also be […]

THIMPU, Bhutan — Nepal’s Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal returned home from the 16th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Bhutan on April 30 to face a political crisis in his landlocked Himalayan nation. On May 1, the country’s former prime minister, the Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal (popularly known as Prachanda), began an indefinite general strike aimed at bringing down Kumar Nepal’s government. The ostensible reason was the latter’s almost-certain inability to meet a looming May 28 deadline for a new constitution, part of the 2006 peace agreement that ended a decade-long Maoist insurgency. But a […]

PRISTINA, Kosovo — Tensions ran high in the Balkans on the day, two years ago, that the people of Kosovo announced their momentous decision: “From today onwards,” Prime Minister Hashim Thaci solemnly declared on Feb. 17, 2008, “Kosovo is proud, independent and free.” The streets of Pristina erupted in celebration at the news that Kosovo’s long-awaited independence from Serbia had finally arrived. At the time, however, many predicted yet another Balkan war. More than two years later, Kosovo has defied the prophecies of the pessimists who believed armed conflict would inevitably break out again if Kosovo dared to declare independence. […]