Economics & Business Archive

It’s too soon to know how the events of this fast-fading year will ultimately reshape our world, but the upheaval we witnessed in 2011 will most assuredly keep future historians ponderously occupied. Indeed, it was a year of uprooting, breaking up and tilling the geopolitical soil — a year that will have mattered in many ways, many of which we don’t yet fully understand, but that clearly represent a turning point. Ten events in particular reshaped the global landscape in 2011. The Arab Uprisings. The spark lit by Tunisian food vendor Mohammed Bouazizi at the end of 2010 set much […]

BEIJING — With multiple indicators pointing to a tangible slowdown in the Chinese economy, continuing signals from senior leaders that the country is entering a new period of more-controlled economic growth, and significant reforms afoot, there is growing evidence that China is entering a new phase in its economic development. But deterioration in the global macroeconomic environment has created a new and less benign backdrop for this change, significantly limiting policy options for reform and reducing the margin for error. With domestic systemic financial stress and social tension also both ticking upward, China may be finally forced to confront the […]

Over the past year, maritime territorial disputes between China and Japan as well as between China and various Southeast Asian states have triggered several incidents at sea, raising tensions in the region and beyond. So last week’s stabbing death of a South Korean Coast Guard officer at the hands of a Chinese fishing boat captain intercepted in South Korean waters understandably raised concerns that a similar crisis might be at hand. Instead, South Korea responded by calling attention to another maritime security challenge facing the region, that of illegal fishing, and invited Japan and China to jumpstart a dialogue mechanism […]

Argentines take to the streets to remember ten years since their nation’s disastrous economic meltdown, setting the national Christmas tree ablaze outside the presidential palace. World News Videos by NewsLook

Europe’s unresolved debt crisis has been the major problem facing the global economy of late. Beyond taking center stage for economic policymakers, Europe’s problems led investors to seek refuge in the safe haven of U.S. debt, dubiously anointed the “least dirty shirt” of the global economic landscape. As investors pulled out of faster-growing economies, the capital flight drove down the value of those countries’ currencies, many of which had been bid up at the beginning of 2011. While the problem of overvalued currencies may have receded over the summer, the underlying issue of currency manipulation still threatens the global economy. […]

Last month, satellite images taken by the private company DigitalGlobe suggested that an explosion at an Iranian military base was much larger than acknowledged by Iranian authorities. In an email interview, Tim Brown, a specialist in commercial satellite imagery at GlobalSecurity.org, discussed the commercial spy-satellite business. WPR: How has the commercial satellite sector evolved over the past decade? Tim Brown: At the start of 2001, there was only one high-resolution satellite in orbit — IKONOS, operated by Space Imaging (now GeoEye). Now there are five companies, operating 15 satellites. About 70 percent of GeoEye’s and DigitalGlobe’s sales have come from […]

After a groundswell of anti-government protests enveloped many corners of North Africa a year ago, observers around the world began to wonder how far this democratic contagion would spread. In particular, many wondered whether northern Africa would inspire its neighbors in sub-Saharan Africa, which share many of the same demographic characteristics found in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), including a large percentage of unemployed young people, high food prices and years of oppression and unrealized opportunity at the hand of often-brutal dictators. At the time, political commentators in several corners of Africa seemed optimistic that the Arab Spring […]

The “Arab Spring” that started early in 2011 has shaken the entire Middle East. Rulers who had reigned for decades have been toppled; power has changed hands; and the few regimes that are resisting changes are still undergoing tumultuous unrest. Beijing has been forced to face the rapidly changing developments and make adjustments both to monitor the potential repercussions at home and to protect its growing commercial interests in the region. Beijing has responded to the events in the Middle East with tentative policy adjustments aimed at securing domestic stability and minimizing economic losses resulting from the unforseen and sudden […]

Much of what drives America’s current phobias regarding China stems from the dual — and fantastically linear — assumptions of America’s terminal decline and China’s perpetual ascension. We are thus led to believe that China no longer needs the United States and that America, in turn, can do nothing — short of increasing military pressure — to constrain the Middle Kingdom’s rise to global hegemony. On all scores, nothing could be further from the truth. China and the United States suffer a level of strategic interdependency that is vast and shows no signs of reduction. Simply put, America cannot stay […]

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev traveled to Prague earlier this month to sign a deal with Czech President Vaclav Klaus establishing a joint venture on the exchange of civilian nuclear technology. In an email interview, Petr Kratochvíl, deputy director of the Institute of International Relations in Prague, discussed Russia-Czech Republic relations. WPR: What is the nature of Russia-Czech Republic relations since the end of the Cold War? Petr Kratochvíl: Roughly speaking, we can distinguish three fundamental phases. The first covers the period from the Velvet Revolution in 1989 to around 1994 and included the dissolution of both the Warsaw Treaty and […]

The most striking image from last weekend’s demonstrations in Moscow against the regime of former president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is that of protesters holding up iPads and iPhones over their heads, broadcasting the momentous events live over the Internet. The sight of young Russians, bundled up against the Moscow cold, speaking out for democracy via social media brings to mind the wave of political protests that have defined 2011 — from the Arab uprisings in the Middle East, to the Occupy movement in developed economies, and now in Russia. And it raises the question of just how […]

Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov paid a four-day visit to China last month. In an email interview, Kathleen J. Hancock, an associate professor of political science at the Colorado School of Mines, discussed China-Turkmenistan relations. WPR: How have political and economic relations between China and Turkmenistan evolved over the past decade? Kathleen J. Hancock: Since Turkmenistan’s independence in December 1991, its relationship with China has revolved around the supply and demand of natural gas.* While estimates have shifted over time, Turkmenistan is currently estimated to have 265 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves, making it the 12th-most-endowed country, according to the […]

OPEC oil producers have agreed to a new production limit that will keep output at roughly its current level. Iran had wanted to cut production, which would boost prices. But Saudi Arabia’s argument — that levels should be maintained — won out.

Editor’s note: This is the second in a two-part series on India’s strategic engagement in Central Asia. Part one examined ties with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Part two examines ties with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Two decades of Indian engagement with Central Asia have produced relationships that are now poised to move beyond the energy and transit sectors toward more-diversified commercial investments. However, this evolution takes place against the backdrop of NATO’s imminent withdrawal from the region, at a time when India still sees national armies as the most sustainable institutions in Central Asia. In this context, Indian Army chief Gen. V.K. […]

Reacting to violent protests opposing the $4.8 billion Conga mining project in the state of Cajamarca, Peruvian President Ollanta Humala declared a state of emergency last week before replacing more than half of his cabinet and swearing in a new prime minister over the weekend. Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, told Trend Lines that these developments reflect a shift in Humala’s sympathies and strategies. The president is looking to reassure foreign investors, Shifter said, even if that means isolating leftist supporters. “It is hard to interpret this any way other than as a break from the left,” he […]

Indonesia and Malaysia recently began talks about their shared border near Indonesia’s West Kalimantan province, according to an Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesman. In an email interview, Dave McRae, a research fellow in the East Asia Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, discussed Indonesia-Malaysia relations. WPR: What is the recent history of Indonesia-Malaysia relations? Dave McRae: Recent Indonesia-Malaysia relations have featured regular public and diplomatic controversies, but the relationship is nevertheless underpinned by solid economic ties and the routine business of bilateral cooperation. A broad range of issues have spurred tensions between Indonesia and Malaysia. The countries’ navies have […]

Last week’s Duma elections have identified several weaknesses in Russia’s political system that cannot easily be solved. The current political order will probably survive the protests over the blatant electoral fraud, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is likely to return to the presidency next year. But the Putin system that has defined Russian politics for the past decade is unlikely to last beyond the next decade, since its vulnerabilities cannot be addressed by the modest reforms that the leading members of the regime are willing to tolerate. To truly modernize, Russia must overcome Putinism, develop stronger political parties, achieve greater […]