Economics & Business Archive

While the world watches the ongoing debt negotiations between Greece and its international creditors mainly for their impact on the Greek and eurozone economies, the talks have already put Beijing’s plans for a strategic transport system meant to further integrate Europe and the Mediterranean with the Chinese market back on track. The new leftist government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in Athens had initially announced plans to halt the privatization of Greece’s largest seaport, Piraeus, alarming investors from the Chinese shipping giant Cosco, which is keen to take a majority share in the Greek facility. But as part of the […]

This past week, I had the opportunity to attend a roundtable in New York sponsored by the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development on the question of whether the West and Russia have entered into a new Cold War. My sense of pessimism that it now seems impossible to get relations between Russia and the West back on track was reinforced by listening to the exchanges. Even if the present cease-fire holds in Ukraine and succeeds in halting open warfare, the effect will only be temporary. Any sort of long-term settlement seems to be beyond reach. Neither Russia nor […]

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro stepped up his crackdown on his political opponents with the arrest last week of the mayor of Caracas, Antonio Ledezma, who stands accused of trumped-up charges of plotting a coup with support from the United States. Ledezma’s is the most recent in a string of arrests of opposition politicians and comes as Maduro faces a severe economic crisis at home. Since assuming power in 2013, Maduro has struggled escape the shadow of his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, and unify his base of support, known as the Chavistas. Last July, with oil prices only just falling, Frida Ghitis […]

For almost a decade now, since the publication of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s brilliant, discursive rumination “The Black Swan,” conventional wisdom has held that the biggest threats to strategy—in national security as well as areas like finance—come from sudden and unexpected events. A black swan, as Taleb named such an event, is at its core both a shock and a surprise. It is an “outlier,” Taleb writes, “as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.” He goes on to claim that such events are the engines of history. “A […]

On Friday, European finance ministers meeting in Brussels reached a deal to extend Greece’s bailout by four months. As part of the deal, Greece was given 48 hours to present a list of reforms to creditors, including measures such as cracking down on tax evasion and relaxing labor laws. This list is due to be submitted by midnight on Monday, and if creditors do not feel the reforms go far enough, the entire deal could collapse. The tentative agreement eases some of the uncertainty that came with the victory of the radical left Syriza party in Greece’s snap election in […]

Xanana Gusmao stepped down as East Timor’s prime minister earlier this month, leaving the post to opposition leader Rui Araujo. In an email interview, Gordon Peake, a research fellow in the State, Society and Governance in Melanesia Program at Australia National University’s College of Asia and the Pacific and author of “Beloved Land: Stories, Struggles & Secrets from Timor-Leste,” discussed East Timor’s political transition and democracy. WPR: What were the political and other factors that led to the resignation of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao and the appointment of Rui Araujo from the opposition Fretilin party? Gordon Peake: No one really […]

The Vikings conquered the high seas to plunder and pillage. The British established their empire by dominating the oceans. And in the past 40 years, the United States Navy helped usher in a new era of unprecedented trade and global connectivity by safeguarding major sea routes. The world’s oceans have always represented an important strategic theater. But the threats today go beyond the headline-grabbing developments, like China’s advanced naval capabilities and Russia’s growing submarine activities in the Baltic Sea. A quieter maritime challenge is building up out of sight: control over the world’s fisheries. With over 90 percent of global […]

Last week, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper shook up his Cabinet, rearranging key members of his foreign policy team ahead of federal elections scheduled for Oct. 19. The move was triggered by Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird’s decision to quit politics, possibly with the aim of collecting a larger pension than he might have if he had waited until 2016. Baird is one of several ministers to depart in recent months, forcing Harper to recalibrate his strategy in what is shaping up to be a difficult election year. Baird’s replacement is Rob Nicholson, who until last week had served as […]

The launch of five short-range missiles from North Korea’s east coast earlier this month threw icy water on some recent and uncharacteristically positive media coverage of Kim Jong Un’s regime. Reports of tentative discussions with U.S. officials about the possibility of jumpstarting nuclear talks, combined with the supposed mid-2015 rollout of additional Chinese-style economic reforms contained in the so-called May 30th Measures announced last year, suggested that significant shifts could be in the cards in Pyongyang. But the missile launch highlights the ways in which North Korea’s room for maneuver, especially on the economic front, will continue to be constrained […]

In its more than 50 years of independence since the end of French colonialism, Algeria has seen a failed experiment with socialist economic development, taken stabs at halfhearted economic and political liberalizations and defeated a bloody Islamist rebellion against the state. Yet today, the country still faces important challenges, including social transformations, economic uncertainty despite oil and gas wealth, and a worrisome political sclerosis. All of these challenges might become exacerbated by a pending leadership succession whose smoothness is far from guaranteed. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika may not complete his fourth term due to poor health associated with a stomach ailment […]

There is no question that Haiti’s government has hit the ground hard lately. Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe’s Cabinet resigned in December, following mounting criticism of its record on human rights and the economy, as well as its failure to hold local and parliamentary elections for over three years. The election delays rendered parliament dysfunctional last month, as terms expired for a third of Haiti’s Senate seats and the entire Chamber of Deputies. Meanwhile, on the streets, a steadily growing opposition movement generates at least one large anti-government demonstration each week. For two days last week, cities across Haiti were paralyzed […]

Earlier this month, the foreign ministers of the Philippines and Vietnam met to discuss the possibility of forming a strategic partnership. In an email interview, Carl Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales, discussed ties between Manila and Hanoi. WPR: What is the recent trajectory of Philippines-Vietnam relations, and to what extent are the South China Sea territorial disputes driving closer ties? Carl Thayer: Philippines-Vietnam relations have been on an upward trend since October 2010, following the state visit to Hanoi by Philippine President Benigno Aquino and subsequent visits to the Philippines by Vietnam’s president in 2011 […]

It has been a busy week for Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi. On Monday, he had to apologize to his Gulf Arab patrons for a leaked audio recording, purportedly of him and two of his generals mocking the oil-rich monarchies and scheming how to squeeze them for billions. “Man, they have money like rice,” says a man identified as el-Sissi on the alleged recording, which revealed more than just the scorn Egypt’s junta has for its foreign backers and for everyday Egyptians. As the Egyptian blogger known as Baheyya wrote, in the “frank, relaxed banter,” Egypt’s current ruler and two of […]

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis was in Brussels on Wednesday for an emergency meeting with 18 other eurozone finance ministers about his country’s bailout. It is just the latest sign of how the victory of the radical left, anti-austerity Syriza party in Greece’s election last month has dominated the European Union’s agenda. But with all the attention currently on Greece’s attempt to restructure its debt plan, it is easy to forget the other countries subjected to strict austerity measures by the troika of the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), including Portugal, […]

The victory of Syriza in Greece’s recent parliamentary elections has led some to speculate about the impact the radical leftist party will have on Europe’s political landscape. With the Greek economy suffocating from depression-level contraction, Syriza campaigned on the promise to end the budgetary austerity imposed by the so-called troika—the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB)—as a condition for the bailouts that are still the only thing keeping the country from a sovereign default. Would this leftist insurrection against the fiscal stewardship of the powers that be in Brussels, some asked, serve as […]

Last month, 11 states in Brazil experienced a series of blackouts. In an email interview, Mark Langevin, director of BrazilWorks and adjunct professor of international affairs at the George Washington University, discussed Brazil’s energy infrastructure. WPR: What is the current state of Brazil’s electricity infrastructure? Mark Langevin: Brazil’s recent sporadic power outages highlight the external threats that stem from hydroelectricity dependence and volatile climate conditions. They also confirm the equally important, but less dramatic, progress Brazil has made in increasing power generation and the reliability of electricity service since the devastating blackouts of 2001. The current outages arise much closer […]

On Jan. 8, Chinese President Xi Jinping strode into a meeting room in Beijing for an unprecedented gathering. The audience was filled with Latin American dignitaries, including three presidents, one prime minister and countless Cabinet members from the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). It was the first official high-level gathering of the China-CELAC Forum, and Xi expressed his appreciation. “Your presence,” he told his audience, “has brought warmth to Beijing in the depth of winter.” Xi vowed to double Chinese trade with Latin America to half a trillion dollars and raise direct Chinese investment in the region […]