When Argentina’s economic and political system imploded in 2001, few imagined that only 10 years later the Southern Cone nation would be one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. After a nimble recovery fueled by a depreciated currency and a spike in world commodity prices, today Argentina is flush with cash. Its economy is booming, and barring a global meltdown, demand from China and other emerging markets for its commodities is unlikely to fade. So it is not surprising that President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner won more than 50 percent of the vote in the country’s open primaries in […]

While much has been written about China’s port development projects in the Indian Ocean region, it is actually Beijing’s undersea activities in the area that may prove to be the greater source of consternation for India and its navy. In July, the China Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development Association announced that it had secured approval from the International Seabed Authority (ISA) to explore the southwestern Indian Ocean ridge for polymetallic sulphide nodules. The move was not received well in Indian policymaking circles, which believe that it not only reflects Beijing’s intentions to extract resources from the Indian Ocean region […]

Belarus’ Lukashenko is Weakened, but Opposition is Weaker

Two recent currency devaluations and a mounting financial crisis have put a significant dent in the armor of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. With his popularity now at its lowest rating since 2003, speculation has arisen over whether the authoritarian leader’s 11-year reign in the former Soviet republic may be nearing its final stages. However, the reality, according to Alex Nice, who coordinates the Russia and Eurasia Program at London’s Chatham House, is that “falling support for Lukashenko does not automatically mean that his government is unstable.” Nice reminded Trend Lines on Tuesday that Lukashenko has systematically intimidated his domestic foes […]

Report: Serious Communications Gaps at Camps for Somali Refugees are Putting Lives at Risk

Serious communication gaps between the humanitarian sector and refugees in Dadaab, Kenya, are increasing refugee suffering and putting lives at risk, according to a new joint assessment report released by Internews, an international media development organization. Internews led the assessment and produced this video.

When Viktor Yanukovych finally ascended to the presidency of Ukraine in 2010, commentators could be forgiven for thinking that the era of caustic bilateral relations with Russia, Ukraine’s largest neighbor and former imperial ruler, would come to an end. That era of tension had begun in 2004, after the Orange Revolution sidelined the largely pro-Russian wing of the Ukrainian oligarchy. For the following six years, Kiev and Moscow clashed on a seemingly endless range of issues, from esoteric debates on the interpretation of Soviet history to major international events like the Georgian War. Natural gas, in particular, became a source […]

On Sept. 23, Zambian authorities announced that longtime opposition leader Michael Sata had won the country’s presidential election, held three days previously. Sata’s victory is notable for two reasons. First, African incumbents like outgoing President Rupiah Banda seldom lose elections. Second, Sata’s anti-China rhetoric has made Beijing nervous — and other observers curious — about whether Zambia will now spearhead an African backlash against Chinese economic activities on the continent. Anatomy of an African Opposition Victory Michael Sata, 74, began his career as a police officer and railway worker, before breaking into Zambian politics in the 1960s. His steady rise […]

Last month I spent a couple of hours on the phone being interviewed for the next iteration of the National Intelligence Council’s global futures project. This one imagines the world in 2030, and the interview was part of the organization’s early polling process of experts around the world. I’ve participated similarly in previous iterations, and I’ve always found the NIC’s questions fascinating for how they reveal the group’s primary fears about the future. That’s not to say I dislike the NIC’s global projections, because I do. They tend to lack the alarmist hype of most future scenarios generated by the […]

Global Insider: Ukraine’s Energy Market

Ukraine and Azerbaijan recently signed a deal on the supply of Azerbaijani liquefied natural gas to Ukraine. In an email interview, Natalia Shapovalova, a researcher at the Madrid-based think tank Fride, discussed Ukraine’s energy market. WPR: What is the current state of Ukraine’s energy relations with Russia? Natalia Shapovalova: Russia-Ukraine energy relations are difficult as both have diverging interests. Ukraine is interested in keeping gas prices low, the volumes and price of gas transit high and control over its gas pipeline independent. Russia wants just the opposite. Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych’s government has tried to revise the 2009 contract with […]

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