Briefing Archive

Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, Africa’s longest-serving head of state, appears poised to formally extend his rule over oil-rich Equatorial Guinea later this year. The septuagenarian strongman has confirmed his intention to run in November’s presidential election, a contest no one expects him to lose, since the political opposition is marginalized and the state is firmly under the control of Obiang and his family. Though the election results already look certain, volatile energy revenues and Obiang’s ongoing efforts to position his son as the heir apparent threaten to jeopardize the regime’s future stability. The oil slump undermines Obiang’s long-established strategy of […]

Gui Minhai, by most accounts, appeared quite happy with his life as a writer and editor in Pattaya, a seedy seaside resort east of Bangkok. Born in China and holding a Swedish passport, he had been living in a condo and working on books for Mighty Current, a Hong Kong-based publishing house he founded that specialized in steamy—and possibly untrue—tell-alls about the private lives and political in-fighting of leaders of China’s Communist Party. He swam daily and apparently wrote at a desk overlooking the blue-green Gulf of Thailand. Then, last November, Gui suddenly vanished. Closed-circuit television recordings from his condo […]

Editor’s note: This article is one of three briefings on China’s rise and its implications for U.S. regional and global interests, coinciding with an upcoming panel, in collaboration with WPR, at the St. Petersburg Conference on World Affairs on Feb. 17-19 in St. Petersburg, Florida. The first, on China’s global economic ambitions, appeared Monday; the third, on China’s cyber strategy, will appear Friday. The past two years have seen impressive advances in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s capabilities. In 2015, China revealed that it had begun building its second aircraft carrier and that it had begun its first submarine […]

To advocates, they are 90,000 tons of American sovereignty, deployable anywhere on the globe to project power decisively and at will. In crises, presidents ask, Where are the aircraft carriers? But to critics, they are hugely expensive and increasingly vulnerable monuments to a naval age gone by. They represent the past, not the future, of naval power. Recently, this debate flared up again in the United States as prospective adversaries, like Russia and China, build long-range weapons and create anti-access and area-denial environments. Does the U.S. need aircraft carriers, and, if so, how many? The answer, not surprisingly, is complicated. […]

British Prime Minister David Cameron has been on an offensive since the Paris attacks in November to counter any perception that the United Kingdom is shrinking in its international ambitions. Central to his position is an unambiguous commitment to maintain a U.K. defense budget of 2 percent of GDP and direct new spending to counter the threat of the self-proclaimed Islamic State. However, uncertainty over the U.K.’s relations with the European Union, with a British vote on whether or not to stay in the union expected this June, could derail his campaign. Cameron committed an additional 12 billion pounds (about […]

Editor’s note: This article is one of three briefings on China’s rise and its implications for U.S. regional and global interests, coinciding with an upcoming panel, in collaboration with WPR, at the St. Petersburg Conference on World Affairs on Feb. 17-19 in St. Petersburg, Florida. The second, on China’s naval modernization, will appear Wednesday; the third, on China’s cyber strategy, will appear Friday. Over the course of the past decade, China has been steadily laying the foundation of an international financial and monetary system centered on the yuan. While progress was initially slow, it picked up considerable steam in the […]

U.S. President Barack Obama’s commitment to preventing and rolling back the spread of nuclear weapons was clear from the first days of his administration, when he pledged in Prague in April 2009 “to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.” The historic vow shattered precedent, seized international attention and helped him win the Nobel Peace Prize later that year. Yet as he prepares to leave office seven years later, it appears that with the exception of a fledgling nuclear deal with Iran, Obama will leave an arms control legacy that is arguably little better than that […]

On the morning of Jan. 14, a series of explosions and gunfire rocked the Indonesian capital of Jakarta, killing eight people and injuring dozens. The attacks, which were claimed by affiliates of the self-described Islamic State, have led the government of President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, to ramp up counterterrorism efforts across Indonesia. While the Jakarta attacks made headlines all over the world, Indonesian authorities and experts have long noted the rising terrorism threat in the world’s most populous Muslim nation. Several groups have been operating in the country, including one based in central Java with ties to […]

PHNOM PENH—Conservative forces have strengthened their grip in Vietnam after the ruling Communist Party, late last month, elected its incumbent general-secretary to a second five-year term in the country’s top political office. Analysts say the reappointment of Nguyen Phu Trong, 71, will put a brake on political and economic reforms, but it is unlikely to significantly alter the balance of the country’s crucial relationships with China and the United States. The decision also spelled an end to the ambitions of the reformist Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who mounted a short-lived challenge for the Community Party’s top post before its […]

Thanks to Iran’s speedy compliance with the requirements of its nuclear agreement with the group of world powers known as the P5+1, international economic sanctions on Iran were formally lifted on Jan. 16. Iran’s political leadership upheld its part of the deal so far in order to prevent any delay in lifting sanctions that have crippled its economy. The two most devastating sanctions that were lifted had restricted Iran’s finances and oil exports. These measures reduced Iran’s oil revenues, blocked its foreign assets and nearly paralyzed its foreign trade. Free from those restrictions, Iran has wasted no time in trying […]

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is treating his country’s election later this month as a coronation, not a contest, happy to cultivate the impression that the five-year extension to his already 30-year rule is all but a done deal. But the arrest this past weekend of a prominent general turned regime critic is the latest sign that Museveni’s camp is more worried about the vote—and its aftermath—than they are letting on. Ahead of the Feb. 18 ballot, Museveni has been running a goodwill tour of a campaign. Traveling from town to town under a banner of “Steady Progress,” he is pledging […]

After the collapse of multilateral trade talks at the World Trade Organization in Geneva in 2008, governments around the world went back to the drawing board to devise new trade strategies. As a second-best solution, trade officials increasingly looked to bilateral and plurilateral trade negotiations to generate commercial opportunities for domestic businesses and strengthen their economic and geopolitical positions in regions of strategic importance. In anticipation of the failure of the WTO’s Doha Round, European Union leaders had already ended, in 2006, the EU moratorium on bilateral trade talks and made concluding comprehensive trade and investment agreements with emerging and […]

The results of Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections, which were held on Jan. 16, were important, and not only for its domestic politics and relations with China. For the third time in Taiwan’s history, there was a peaceful transfer of power through the ballot box, with Tsai Ying-wen of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) beating Eric Chu of the ruling Kuomintang party (KMT) for the presidency. Tsai garnered more than 56 percent of votes cast, significantly more than what she managed in her last presidential bid in 2012, when she finished with just over 45 percent. For the first […]

On Jan. 25, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika dissolved the Department of Intelligence and Security, the country’s powerful military spy agency known as the DRS, replacing it with a new entity under executive control. The move was one of several recent shake-ups in Algeria’s shadowy government. In September, Bouteflika announced the retirement of Gen. Mohamed “Toufik” Mediene, the longstanding head of the DRS and a powerful political figure, confounding Algerians and observers. The president argued that Toufik’s dismissal was “in line with the constitution.” But as Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck wrote for WPR at the time, “that muted explanation belied the stunning decision […]

The global weather event known as El Niño has been blamed for droughts in Central America and northern South America and record-breaking floods in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. But some scientists warn that the worst could be yet to come. El Niño poses major challenges for Latin America’s governments, some of which are in the midst of economic and political crises. The weather phenomenon is also testing their ability to face the growing threat of climate change, now and in the future. Scientists believe that El Niño, a warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean about once every decade […]