Briefing Archive

Kim Jong Il’s death and apparent replacement by his 20-something son, Kim Jong Un, has introduced a potentially potent new variable into South Korean politics at a time when the South’s traditional political parties are dissolving. This vulnerability may tempt the North to engage in aggressive provocation, while making it difficult for the South to respond cohesively. For the time being, both capitals are likely to maintain the status quo. South Korea’s policy toward the North is set by its executive, composed of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and Prime Minister Kim Hwang-sik. Though the South Korean media often refers […]

BEIJING — With multiple indicators pointing to a tangible slowdown in the Chinese economy, continuing signals from senior leaders that the country is entering a new period of more-controlled economic growth, and significant reforms afoot, there is growing evidence that China is entering a new phase in its economic development. But deterioration in the global macroeconomic environment has created a new and less benign backdrop for this change, significantly limiting policy options for reform and reducing the margin for error. With domestic systemic financial stress and social tension also both ticking upward, China may be finally forced to confront the […]

Europe’s unresolved debt crisis has been the major problem facing the global economy of late. Beyond taking center stage for economic policymakers, Europe’s problems led investors to seek refuge in the safe haven of U.S. debt, dubiously anointed the “least dirty shirt” of the global economic landscape. As investors pulled out of faster-growing economies, the capital flight drove down the value of those countries’ currencies, many of which had been bid up at the beginning of 2011. While the problem of overvalued currencies may have receded over the summer, the underlying issue of currency manipulation still threatens the global economy. […]

The Iraq War began with “shock and awe.” It ended with quiet dignity, with battle flags coming down from their standards, with a free but fragile Iraq walking into the unknown and a bloodied but unbowed U.S. military saluting its commander-in-chief and marching home. Much about America’s war in Iraq was remarkable: the rapid collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime, the surprising absence of WMDs, the unexpectedly high economic and human costs, the patience of the American people — eight years is a long war for this nation’s short attention span — the ferocity of the postwar occupation, the sacrifice and […]

The death of around a dozen people over the weekend in Zhanaozen, Kazakhstan, follows months of reported strikes, bombings and other violence in the western part of the country. The exact reasons for the disturbances are unclear. Labor disputes, clan rivalries and resurgent Islamist militancy all seem to be at work. Whatever the causes, Kazakh authorities should heed the warning represented by the violence and ensure that the country’s upcoming legislative elections are free and fair. On Nov. 16, President Nursultan Nazarbayev dissolved Kazakhstan’s national legislature and established Jan. 15, 2012, as the date for the next parliamentary elections. Since […]

With Russia embroiled in mass demonstrations following surprisingly tough and contested Duma elections, the breakaway republic of South Ossetia gripped by ongoing political confusion following its own controversial presidential poll, and separatist Abkhazia coming off recent fiercely contested elections, it may be time to re-evaluate more than a few political tropes in Eurasia. The developments are all the more noteworthy in that they come as Georgia, long portrayed by Western supporters as the region’s consummate reformer, faces an unexpected political showdown that is casting the ostensibly democratic republic’s autocratic contours into sharp relief. In a stunning rebuke to Russian Prime […]

This week in the small Western Saharan town of Tifariti, delegations are arriving for the 13th Conference of the Polisario Front, the United Nations-recognized group that has fought since the 1970s for Western Sahara’s independence from Morocco. The gathering, to be held Dec. 15-20, is expected to draw some 1,500 people from the region, as well as from Asia, Europe and Latin America. It will broach a topic that has otherwise gone largely overlooked in the aftermath of the Arab Spring uprisings that have swept the Middle East and North Africa in the name of greater representation and government accountability: […]

Editor’s note: This is the second in a two-part series on India’s strategic engagement in Central Asia. Part one examined ties with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Part two examines ties with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Two decades of Indian engagement with Central Asia have produced relationships that are now poised to move beyond the energy and transit sectors toward more-diversified commercial investments. However, this evolution takes place against the backdrop of NATO’s imminent withdrawal from the region, at a time when India still sees national armies as the most sustainable institutions in Central Asia. In this context, Indian Army chief Gen. V.K. […]

Editor’s note: This is the first in a two-part series on India’s strategic engagement in Central Asia. Part one examines ties with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Part two will examine ties with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.India’s engagement with Central Asia on strategic military concerns is gathering pace, with visits by high-ranking Indian defense officials and security cooperation deals underscoring the immense value New Delhi attaches to its growing military relationship with the region. The strengthened Indian presence in the area is driven by New Delhi’s desire not only to protect its emerging investments in Central Asia, but also its interests in Afghanistan […]

Last Tuesday’s deadly attacks on Shiite processions in Kabul and Mazar-e Sharif in Afghanistan are further evidence of dangerous instability in neighboring Pakistan and of the Pakistani state’s failure to act coherently to counteract it. A clear understanding of the group responsible is important to understanding the crossborder ramifications of the attacks. Contrary to reports in prominent news outlets, the Pakistani Sunni sectarian terrorist group Lashkar-e Jhangvi (LeJ) was not responsible for the attacks. Rather, an LeJ splinter group known as Lashkar-e Jhangvi al-Alami (LeJ-A) — not the original LeJ organization — has claimed responsibility for them. A person claiming […]

In the Nov. 22 Republican presidential debate, several candidates argued that the U.S. can no longer afford its foreign aid budget. In previous debates, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney went even one step further, explaining that the United States should not borrow money from China just to give it to other countries as aid. Instead, he argued, we should let the Chinese give aid directly to foreign countries if that is what they want to do. Romney is right to mention China, but he draws the wrong conclusion. China already provides large amounts of aid to countries throughout the developing […]

Recent moves by Russia, Norway and even China have put a spotlight on the High North, where warming temperatures have led to greater seasonal ice melt and access. With increased future activity in the Arctic inevitable, the United States must begin to address some of the potential security challenges that could result. As part of this effort, the European Command (EUCOM) — the U.S. military command responsible for the Arctic — must leverage the progress made by the Arctic Council in nonsecurity matters to facilitate expanded security cooperation efforts in the region. The Arctic Council has successfully raised awareness of […]

Last week’s historic visit to Myanmar by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton represents the culmination of the Obama administration’s policy shift toward the pariah state. Launched in September 2009 to establish a new starting point in the relationship between the two countries, the engagement with Myanmar is part of the broader U.S. effort to play a primary role in the fast-evolving Asia-Pacific region. By contrast, the European Union seems unable to keep up with the economic and political changes taking place in Asia, and instead appears simply to follow Washington’s lead without needed policy debates within the union. EU […]

There is no question that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will easily return to the Kremlin as president next year and that he will be fully in charge of Russia when he does. But the steady erosion of his regime’s grip over the Russian public was on full display Sunday, when Russian voters elected a new Duma. In the previous legislative elections in 2007, Putin’s United Russia party polled almost two-thirds of the vote and gained enough seats to change the constitution as well. This time around, even with the help of widespread electoral fraud, the party failed to reach […]

Recent reports from Syria of military defectors attacking an Air Force intelligence building in Hasrata highlight the growing likelihood that Syrian military sites will become a target in the country’s ongoing conflict. While no other similar attacks have been reported since then, the Hasrata incident illustrates the possibility of escalating instability within Syria’s military command, which could in turn lead to difficulties in controlling and securing Syrian military assets. In such a climate, Syria’s alleged chemical weapons program is cause for particular concern. The international community suspects Syria of having a comprehensive chemical weapons program that includes production and delivery […]

A look at Vietnam’s recent diplomatic moves shows Hanoi increasingly diversifying and intensifying its relations with major powers, a pattern that should be seen as an effort by Hanoi to deal with a more forceful China. Like many countries in the region, Vietnam is increasingly dependent on either direct or indirect economic links with fast-growing China. Furthermore, Vietnam’s political and economic system is similar to — if not modeled after — China’s. Maintaining a friendly relationship with their big neighbor is therefore the top priority of Vietnam’s leaders. Both sides have officially pledged to build a comprehensive partnership, guided by […]

A recently filed legal petition claiming that the United Nations acted negligently and recklessly in Haiti is raising difficult questions about U.N. accountability — and its legal immunity. The petition (.pdf), submitted Nov. 3, is already raising the possibility that a legally mandated, but rarely implemented, judicial procedure for civilians living in countries with U.N. peacekeeping missions will be enforced. As a result, the petition’s implications go far beyond the particulars of the Haiti case, in which more than 5,000 Haitians argue that the U.N. has so far failed to provide them with a means of remedy after cholera was […]