When news of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner Group’s march to Moscow broke, there was palpable shock among EU and U.S. officials. The extent to which Western governments were blindsided by a crisis that had been building for months was a reminder of how institutions in the U.K., EU and U.S. struggle to manage geopolitical risk.
United States
The true danger for NATO is not the emergence of European defense capacity, but the lack of it. A rebalanced alliance will require a new paradigm based on closer NATO-EU cooperation with a stronger European pillar within NATO. That will only happen if Europe adopts, and the U.S. supports, a more ambitious European defense agenda.
The U.S.-China rivalry will shape the course of international politics in the 21st century. Hence, any insights that can be gleaned on the state of bilateral relations from the meeting two weeks ago between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President Xi Jinping are worth evaluating. And the insights to be gleaned are encouraging.