United States Archive

Rarely a week passes without a grim new article, op-ed or newspaper story warning us that al-Qaida is mounting a comeback. Retired U.S. Army Gen. Jack Keane, for instance, recently declared that al-Qaida is “seeking to take advantage of the opportunities posed by revolutionary change throughout the Middle East” and is “on the rise.” Writing for the Wall Street Journal, the RAND Corporation’s Seth Jones argued that, with the Obama administration turning its attention to the Asia-Pacific region, al-Qaida is pushing into the political vacuum created by the Arab Spring and “riding a resurgent wave as its affiliates engage in […]

In the most recent presidential debate, Republican nominee Mitt Romney attempted to tap into a deep-rooted fear among the American public of instability in the Middle East, and in particular the concern that any resulting oil supply disruption would spike oil prices and trigger a recession. The concern is historically based: Past recessions have been caused or accelerated by such crises, including the 1973 oil embargo, the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 1980 outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war. Contrary to received wisdom, however, the chance of an oil crisis caused by a hard-to-manage oil disruption has decreased substantially since the […]

This past week’s 44th annual U.S.-South Korea Security Consultative meeting chaired by South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin and U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta provides an opportunity to benchmark the health of the alliance at a moment when at least one of the presidential administrations, that of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, is certain to leave office soon. At their meeting, the two countries’ defense establishments agreed to continue transitioning wartime operational command responsibilities to the South Korean military, retain 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea, expand U.S.-South Korea cooperation in new areas such as outer space and the cyber […]

Editor’s note: Ulrike Guérot’s the Continentalist column will return next Monday. With the U.S. presidential campaign entering the home stretch, it is already evident that foreign policy will not play a major role in the election outcome. As the third and final presidential debate highlighted, the foreign policy discussion has ignored wide swathes of critical issues, including how to respond to China’s rise and the resulting shifts in Asia’s regional balance of power; how to re-establish America’s relevance in an increasingly self-reliant Latin America; how to penetrate Africa’s promising but increasingly competitive economic landscape; and how to balance America’s lingering […]

On Monday, during the final presidential debate, President Barack Obama proclaimed that his defense budgets were “driven by strategy. [They’re] not driven by politics.” In theory, Obama is correct. Defense budgeting is supposed to be a rational exercise that assesses threats and needs, and then fills in the gaps. As Sean Sullivan, a leading expert on defense resource allocation issues at the Naval War College, told me in a conversation on the subject, “Defense planning processes are specifically designed to use strategy as guidance for force programming and budget decisions, thereby linking the ends with the means.” In practice, however, […]

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney recently released a list of several hundred retired generals and admirals who have joined the “Romney for President Military Advisory Council.” There is nothing unusual about such a list. Many presidential candidates roll out endorsements from high-profile former officers to demonstrate that as commander-in-chief, they would have the support of the military’s senior leaders. What did raise some eyebrows was the inclusion on Romney’s list of retired Army Gen. Tommy Franks. Writing for Mother Jones, Adam Weinstein said, “If you’re a presidential candidate looking to establish your national security cred with a war-weary American public, […]

In late-September, Sen. Joe Lieberman detailed a significant and sustained Iranian attack on U.S. banks in retaliation for the Stuxnet virus, which the U.S. all but admitted had been used to attack Iran’s nuclear program. In October, Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, spoke circumspectly about a new cyberthreat from an “unusual source.” Then, on Oct. 11, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned of America’s unpreparedness for a major cyberattack, raising the specter of a cyber Pearl Harbor. The message was clear: The United States is engaged in a cyber conflict. Alarmingly, however, the […]

As a general rule, foreign policy issues do not significantly impact U.S. presidential elections. And if public opinion polls are any indication, this year is no exception, with surveys consistently showing little interest among American voters for foreign policy. Nonetheless, there are several reasons why yesterday’s foreign policy debate between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney could matter more, perhaps a lot more, than is traditionally the case. In what is a very close race, the previous two debates appeared to have had an impact on voters’ intentions. Indeed, the first debate proved decisive in allowing Romney to […]

On Tuesday, the Cuban government announced that it would ease the highly restrictive travel laws it has kept in place for more than 50 years. Beginning next year, Cubans will no longer need an exit visa to leave the island, requiring instead only a passport and a visa for their destination country. Two experts spoke with Trend Lines about the impact the reforms will have. “The big question is how many Cubans will now rush to leave the island,” Ted Piccone, senior fellow and deputy director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, wrote Trend Lines in an email, adding […]

In George Lucas’ dystopian 1971 film, “THX-1138,” the protagonist is pursued by police after attempting to escape from a futuristic totalitarian city-state. However, the city has only budgeted a certain amount to cover the costs of the pursuit. In the penultimate scene, as the officers are about to recapture the renegade, the comptroller’s office informs them that because of cost overruns, the chase is to be terminated. “Economics make it necessary to terminate any operation which exceeds five percent of its primary budget,” the officers are told. With the specter of sequestration — which on Jan. 1, 2013, is set […]

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta’s recent address to the Business Executives for National Security conference in New York revisited an old metaphor of the cybersecurity game: a Pearl Harbor-esque surprise attack on the nation’s computer systems. Though the fears that Panetta invoked of a massive cyber attack on the United States may be overblown, there are valid reasons for concern. As Panetta highlighted, foreign powers are increasingly going on the offensive in cyberspace, with two of the world’s most important industries, energy and banking, recently coming under assault. His speech signals that, for the Department of Defense, cyberattacks have likely […]

On Tuesday, the British government announced that it would not extradite British hacker Gary McKinnon to the United States, marking the first time an extradition has been halted under the 2003 Extradition Act between the U.S. and the United Kingdom. McKinnon, who is accused of serious crimes including hacking American military databases, has fought extradition for the past 10 years. But in light of new evidence about his health, British Home Secretary Theresa May, the government’s top authority on domestic affairs, cited McKinnon’s human rights as her main consideration. Extraditing McKinnon would put him at high risk of suicide, she […]

The U.S. and Peru are renegotiating their long-standing defense cooperation treaty, as announced by the countries’ defense chiefs in a joint press conference in Lima earlier this month. In an email interview, Louis Goodman, the dean emeritus of the American University School of International Service, discussed U.S.-Peru defense cooperation. WPR: What is the extent of present-day defense cooperation between the U.S. and Peru? Louis Goodman: The United States and Peru have strong cooperative relations, which have been enhanced in recent years. Signatories of the 1947 hemisphere-wide Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, which commits parties to mutual defense, the two nations […]

With the endgame near for large-scale U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan, Americans have already begun to debate the broader implications of the conflict. Many have painted it as a failure, even a strategic fiasco. But it is not. Given the dynamics of the conflict and its wider strategic context, Afghanistan should be considered a win, albeit one that came at a much greater cost than was necessary. In the emotional turmoil following the Sept. 11 attacks, there was little consideration of the ultimate strategic goals of a U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan. The focus was instead on destroying al-Qaida and […]

Russia announced last week that it would cease cooperation with the U.S. under the highly successful Nunn-Lugar nuclear security program. In an email interview, Brian Finlay, a senior associate and director of the Managing Across Boundaries program at the Stimson Center, discussed Russia’s decision to withdraw from the program. WPR: Why is Russia withdrawing from the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program? Brian Finlay: In the immediate wake of the Cold War, dire financial need and insecurity across the Russian Federation mandated cooperation with the United States to protect the vast stockpile of weapons of mass destruction in the former Soviet […]

The debate over U.S. drone strikes against militants in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) has risen in intensity over the past few weeks, following a highly critical report on the strikes’ impact on the region’s civilian population as well as last week’s anti-drone “peace march” to the FATA. However, the focus on drones is unhelpful and legitimizes a narrative that mischaracterizes the real problems in Pakistan. The use of drones is a reaction to militancy that is the product of historical and systemic failures in governance in Pakistan. By making drones the focus of attention, Pakistani institutions can evade […]

During a visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to Moscow earlier this week, the two sides announced that Iraq has signed contracts to purchase up to $4.2 billion worth of Russian weaponry. The news was quickly followed by a diplomatic contretemps between Russia and Turkey, when a Syrian Airlines plane that had departed Moscow for Damascus was forced to land in Ankara. The Turkish government subsequently announced that the ostensibly civilian flight had been carrying military equipment. Combined with the news that a visit by President Vladimir Putin to Turkey scheduled for this coming Monday had been postponed, it […]