Middle East & North Africa Archive

After a hiatus following the 2008 financial crisis and the upheavals of the Arab Spring, multibillion-dollar “mega-projects” are once again being built at breakneck speed in the oil- and gas-rich kingdoms of the Persian Gulf. At first glance, their resumption signifies that the Gulf states have successfully weathered the Middle East’s political and economic storms in recent years. Moreover, successful bids for global events such as the 2020 World Expo in Dubai and the 2022 World Cup in Qatar will ensure a continuing focus on major infrastructural developments through at least the end of the decade. But there’s another story […]

Across Africa and the Middle East, governments and international organizations are paying the price for responding to crises too late. Last week, the continuing spread of Ebola in West Africa vied for global attention with new advances and atrocities in Syria and Iraq by the so-called Islamic State (IS). These were arguably both avoidable disasters. A more determined international medical effort to contain Ebola when it appeared in Liberia and Sierra Leone at the start of this year would almost certainly have stemmed the epidemic. Earlier Western and Arab military action against IS, perhaps paired with a nasty but necessary […]

In September, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with his Saudi counterpart, Saud al-Faisal, in New York in the latest attempt under Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to reduce the prevailing hostilities between Tehran and Riyadh. So far it appears the Saudi leadership has responded positively, creating a strong possibility of Iranian-Saudi relations entering a new phase, with a significant reduction of hostilities. There are even some indications that the improved relations could lead to a grand bargain between the two longtime regional rivals, with significant implications for the entire Middle East. Decades of rocky relations followed by heightened tensions […]

Over the next decade, the United States may play a smaller role in the management of global security, hold steady on its current course or even try returning to the halcyon days of unipolarity. But as Sun Tzu, the great philosopher of war, wrote, a military commander who tries to be strong everywhere ends up being strong nowhere. That also applies to grand strategy. So whatever course American strategy takes, the U.S. must have regional partners. While everyone recognizes that the U.S. must lean heavily on others, it can be easy to forget that strategic partnerships come in several varieties. […]

Iran has a habit of surprising the West, and there is reason to expect important new surprises are on the way. In the not too distant future, a major change will take place at the top of Iran’s power hierarchy, and it will unfold mostly outside the view of Western analysts. Since there is no way of knowing exactly who will become the Islamic Republic’s third supreme leader, the West would do well to avoid excessively self-assured pronouncements on the matter. The most startling and embarrassing of all surprises for Washington came more than three decades ago. In 1977, the […]

Earlier today, fighters from the so-called Islamic State (IS) shot down an Iraqi military helicopter. In an email interview, Rick Brennan, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and former senior adviser to the U.S. military in Iraq from 2006-2011 who led a RAND study entitled “Ending the U.S. War in Iraq: The Final Transition, Operational Maneuver and Disestablishment of United Sates Forces —Iraq,” discussed the current air capabilities of the Iraqi military and its significance for both internal security and external defense. WPR: What air assets does the Iraqi army currently have, and what purchases—on order and planned—are […]

Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the United Nations General Assembly, met with business leaders in New York and held talks with U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington. Though no concrete deals were made, there was progress on improving the strained relationship between India and the U.S. The visit was also significant since Modi was denied a visa to the U.S. in 2004, owing to his failure as chief minister of Gujarat to prevent a 2002 outbreak of religious violence that left over 1,000 people dead. Unsurprisingly, strengthening economic ties was high on Modi’s agenda. During a breakfast […]

Throughout the Ukrainian crisis, Russia has demonstrated a keen appetite for both territory and power. It has shown less concern for international agreements and institutions. While Moscow has largely kept the United Nations out of the conflict, it has permitted the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to monitor the situation on the ground. Even this looks like a mere ploy to deflect Western criticism: Russia has used OSCE peacemaking efforts backed by Germany as a cover for its efforts to destabilize Ukraine, and its proxies in the east of the country have menaced and kidnapped the organization’s observers. […]

In the U.S.-led coalition against the so-called Islamic State (IS), one country has remained relatively aloof: Israel, which has only provided some intelligence when asked. Israel has a good reason for this stance. Unlike Syria and Iraq, where IS controls swaths of territory, or Iraq, where its takeover of Mosul and other northern towns has weakened an already fragile state, it is not a direct threat to Israel. As a result, Israel does not want to get involved in what is amounting to a regional war. But IS does pose an indirect threat to Israel. And while Syrian militants from […]

On the edge of Damascus, Syrian rebels have united in an effort to break the crushing siege of the suburbs known as the Ghouta. And to do so, they have rallied behind the controversial but charismatic Zahran Alloush, the Salafist head of Jeish al-Islam (the Army of Islam) and one of the most prominent rebels in Syria. Syria’s rebels have announced alliances, mergers and charters in the past, but they have nonetheless remained largely atomized countrywide. While infighting among rebels unaffiliated with the so-called Islamic State (IS) has been exaggerated, cooperation has remained mostly ad hoc. Coordination has been hamstrung […]

Yesterday, the Egyptian judge who sentenced more than 1,200 alleged members of the Muslim Brotherhood to death earlier this year was unexpectedly removed from his bench. Judge Said Youssef was transferred from the criminal judiciary to the civilian judiciary, according to reports. His court, which investigated and tried terrorism cases—mostly against the Brotherhood—has been “dismantled,” he told The Associated Press. Could the judge’s demotion have wider significance in the yearlong crackdown against the Brotherhood under President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi? Given the scale of repression, any sign of an easing, like dismissing the internationally criticized judge responsible for so many convictions, bears […]

In 1998, the United Nations held a General Assembly Special Session on the World Drug Problem, with the now-infamous aim to achieve “a drug-free world” by 2008. With preparations underway for a similar session in 2016, there is growing international momentum toward more humane and realistic policies. But one key player in counternarcotics, Turkey, is heading in the opposite direction. On Sept. 23, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Health Minister Mehmet Muezzinoglu issued a joint statement declaring a new war on drugs, with the objective of eradicating drug use in Turkey by 2023. Davutoglu stressed the similarities between the […]

President Barack Obama has set his course for the U.S. conflict with the so-called Islamic State (IS). The deep roots of the extremist organization, the chaotic conditions in Iraq and Syria, and Obama’s determination to limit American involvement will make this a long slog. Months, even years will pass with few demonstrable gains. Whoever moves into the White House after Obama will inherit the crisis. Over time, though, the situation will undergo major shifts, each forcing the United States to re-examine its strategy. To be ready to exploit opportunities and avoid risks, American leaders must anticipate what the big “game […]

After nearly six years in office, the Obama administration has still not found the appropriate balance in its foreign policy rhetoric between making the case for continued U.S. leadership of the international system and encouraging other countries to help lighten America’s load by taking up more of the burden. This is often reflected in the frustration that comes through in the speeches and statements of senior leaders, including those of the president himself, that other states seem to fail to appreciate how endorsing and then providing concrete support to realize a U.S. position in international affairs is in their interest. […]