Whether Russia in Ukraine or Iran in the Middle East, authoritarian regimes flexing their military muscles can generate a sense of irresistible momentum that fuels anxiety among more open societies. Yet if one looks at how both these regimes are coping with social change, what initially seems unstoppable begins to look less ominous.
The ICJ’s middle-ground provisional ruling on whether Israel may be committing genocide in Gaza was not surprising given the specific difficulties of proving genocide. Still, to point out that the ruling falls short of what either party might have wanted would be to miss its wider implications that go far beyond the Gaza conflict.
East Africa has long been a region of great geopolitical importance and, as a result, the object of fierce competition. Now, recent developments, including Sudan’s brutal civil war and Ethiopia’s port access deal with Somaliland, have shone a spotlight on the United Arab Emirates’ influential role in regional affairs.
The war in Gaza and the Houthis’ de facto blockade of the Suez Canal have both imperiled the Mediterranean’s recently regained status as a nodal point of global trade. But at the same time, the European movement toward de-risking trade with China and adopting shorter supply chains provides an opportunity for Mediterranean nations.
At a time when the global order is in flux, it is notable that the drivers of many of the core security challenges in the world today are not, in fact, states. From Hamas to the Houthis movement, to Taiwan and Kosovo, the world is dotted by “quasi-” or “de facto” states. What does that mean for the role of the nation-state?
Under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Cairo has been unable to do anything more than react to crises around Egypt’s borders. With concerns growing over Egypt’s own stability, that has created a vicious cycle, increasing the likelihood that the chaos around it further exacerbates Egypt’s own internal problems.
On Dec. 28, South Africa filed a claim with the International Court of Justice alleging that Israel’s actions in Gaza since Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7 amount to genocide against the Palestinian population. Both Israel and the U.S. have called the case a distraction. They’re right, but not for the reasons they claim.
For those concerned with the bottom-line humanitarian outcomes in Gaza, is a cease-fire ultimately the best way forward? The reality is that cease-fires often fail and for the most part have limited and at times even adverse impacts. There are, however, certain circumstances when cease-fires can make a difference.
Since the start of the war in Gaza, China has adopted a position that is surprisingly critical of Israel. What’s driving the shift? One overlooked factor is the relative collapse of the major pillar underpinning Sino-Israeli ties since even before they formally established diplomatic relations: trade in technology.
All too often, calls for nonviolent action in Palestine ignore how even a fully rejuvenated Palestinian nonviolent movement is unlikely to succeed on its own. Instead, the best hope for progress is the emergence of parallel nonviolent mobilization among Israelis, providing a necessary ally for change that would embody sustainable peace.
As 2024 begins, two of the world’s most important shipping routes—the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal—both face threats that require a global response. The two challenges aren’t alike. But given their effects on global trade, it’s worth asking, What if we treated them with a similar sense of urgency, strategy, attention and resources?
At the height of enthusiasm for globalization, many policymakers convinced themselves that the benefits of a more connected world would encourage potential spoilers to accept a stable international order. The same complacency was visible in the recent shock over attacks by Yemen’s Houthi movement on merchant shipping in the Red Sea.
The events of the past three months serve as a painful reminder that the truths of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict do not go away simply because they are ignored. Acknowledgment of the conflict’s realities is necessary to avoid further repetition of violence and to take steps toward a resolution that minimizes future killing.
Over the past decade, the struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia for dominance in the Middle East has insinuated itself into nearly every regional issue, fracturing international alliances and sustaining wars across the region. Meanwhile, Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and the ongoing war in Gaza serve as reminders that the conflict between Israel and Palestine cannot be simply wished away by regional powers and the United States.