A Russian instructor trains Syrian soldiers and militia members at a training camp in Aleppo province, Syria, Jan. 25, 2019 (Sputnik photo by Mikhail Voskresenskiy via AP Images).

Is Russia’s lucky streak in Syria and Libya finally running out? The Kremlin has gambled big on proxy warfare in both countries, deploying thousands of private military contractors with the so-called Wagner Group to back its favorite strongmen. But after a recent run of misfortunes for Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, and Gen. Khalifa Haftar, the head of the breakaway Libyan National Army, it is starting to look like Russia may not be able to cash in real wins in the Middle East and North Africa anytime soon. The most significant sign that Russia’s support for private paramilitaries in Libya may […]

Food delivery workers near a TV screen showing Chinese leader Xi Jinping attending the closing ceremony of the National People’s Congress, in Beijing, China, May 28, 2020 (AP photo by Andy Wong).

In this week’s editors’ discussion on Trend Lines, WPR’s Judah Grunstein and Freddy Deknatel talk about China’s latest encroachment on Hong Kong’s autonomy, and how it might affect U.S.-China relations. They also discuss the Trump administration’s latest move to finish off the multilateral nuclear deal with Iran, and the outdated logic guiding the administration’s Iran policy more generally. Listen: Download: MP3Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS | Spotify Relevant Articles on WPR:Why China’s Xi Opted for the ‘Nuclear Option’ in Hong KongChina’s Aggression Amid the Pandemic Has Little to Do With COVID-19Trump’s Iran Strategy Is Still Just an Anti-Obama VendettaThe Trump […]

Municipality workers disinfect the grounds of the historical Suleymaniye Mosque, Istanbul, Turkey, May 26, 2020 (AP photo by Emrah Gurel).

In a national address earlier this month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the start of a “normalization plan” to gradually ease restrictions on movement that had ground much of Turkey to a halt amid the coronavirus pandemic. After spreading rapidly during March and April, infection and death rates have decreased recently in Turkey, which currently has nearly 160,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including about 4,400 deaths. Erdogan trumpeted his government’s success in tackling the public health crisis, but warned that “much harsher measures” will be required if cases spike again. Pro-government media outlets insist that Turkey’s fight against the […]

President Donald Trump listens during a session at Ford’s Rawsonville Components Plant, which is now manufacturing personal protection and medical equipment, Ypsilanti, Michigan, May 21, 2020 (AP photo by Alex Brandon).

Six months after the emergence of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, and four months after it became a global outbreak, its political and economic fallout continue to take shape. As government policies adapt and evolve in real time to the changing features of the pandemic, so too do the geopolitical implications. So far, three scenarios have been advanced with regard to COVID-19’s potential impact on the international order. They can be broadly characterized as a change at the top, in which a triumphant and capable China replaces the bungling U.S. as the world’s dominant power; a descent into multipolar […]

Muslim worshippers walk outside the Grand Mosque after noon prayers in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, March 7, 2020 (AP photo by Amr Nabil).

Saudi Arabia announced harsh new austerity measures last week, including the suspension of a cost of living allowance for public workers and the tripling of its value added tax, from 5 percent to 15 percent. While the new policies are intended to plug a gaping hole in state finances amid the coronavirus pandemic and after a historic collapse in oil prices, they are risky for an absolute monarchy that has worked to guarantee affluent lifestyles for its citizens in exchange for their obedience. The government’s response appears to place a disproportionately heavy burden on everyday Saudis rather than the political […]

A man fishes near docked oil drilling platforms, in Port Aransas, Texas, May 8, 2020 (AP photo by Eric Gay).

Oil demand has fallen precipitously in recent months due to lockdowns and other measures that governments around the world have undertaken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The International Energy Agency reckons that oil demand will fall by a record 9.3 million barrels per day in 2020, erasing nearly a decade of growth. With the crisis having rattled oil markets that were already struggling to adapt to structural challenges on both the demand and supply side, the world should brace for the geopolitical impacts of historically low demand for oil. It will take years before demand returns to pre-coronavirus levels […]

Workers disinfect the streets to prevent the spread of coronavirus in Qamishli, Syria, March 24, 2020 (AP photo by Baderkhan Ahmad).

In this week’s editors’ discussion on Trend Lines, WPR’s Judah Grunstein, Freddy Deknatel and Prachi Vidwans talk about the problems around the world—from Syria’s civil war to human rights abuses in China—that are being overshadowed by the coronavirus pandemic and risk deteriorating further. They still must be addressed somehow whenever this crisis is over. Listen: Download: MP3Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS | Spotify Relevant Articles on WPR:Is All Hope Lost for a Global Cease-Fire Resolution at the U.N.?As COVID-19 Hits Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi and the Military Seek an Electoral EdgeThe ‘Swedish Model’ Is a Failure, Not a PanaceaThe […]

Afghan security personnel wear protective face masks to help curb the spread of the coronavirus, Kabul, Afghanistan, April 8, 2020 (AP photo by Rahmat Gul).

The COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the entire world—but in vastly different ways. In particular, efforts to “flatten the curve” could create huge but unquantified costs for the most vulnerable. As a result of measures to contain the coronavirus’s spread, the specter of “biblical” hunger now hangs over much of the globe. At the same time, social distancing strategies remain an unattainable mirage for the hundreds of millions of people living in crowded quarters in the developing world. For fragile and conflict-affected countries, the pandemic represents a grim, dual challenge that risks threatening a precious good: peace. Many of these countries […]

Electronic boards show possible ransomware cyberattacks at the Korea Internet and Security Agency in Seoul, South Korea, May 15, 2017 (Photo by Yun Dong-jin for Yonhap via AP Images).

Cybercriminals are notorious opportunists. Much of their trade relies on creating timely “lures” or “bait” to entice their victims to click on fake websites or download files that contain malware. For years, they’ve leveraged crises for financial gain, taking advantage of disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes. For these hackers, the COVID-19 pandemic has delivered potent new material, as coronavirus-related attacks are intensifying. Proofpoint, a California-based cybersecurity firm, told WPR in an email that it tracked 75 million coronavirus-themed malicious messages during one week in April. Amid global panic and frustration, people are more likely to click without thinking about […]

Thousands of Afghan migrants enter Afghanistan at the Islam Qala border crossing with Iran, March 18, 2020 (AP photo by Hamed Sarfarazi).

Hundreds of thousands of Afghan migrants have returned home from neighboring Iran in recent months, fleeing one of the world’s worst coronavirus outbreaks. Iran has more than 94,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with a death toll of 6,000, although the real figures are likely higher. The exodus has raised concerns of an impending spike in coronavirus cases in Afghanistan. In an email interview with WPR, Annalisa Perteghella, a research fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Center at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, discusses the high risk of coronavirus transmission in Afghanistan and the impact the pandemic […]