Insurgencies Archive

Whether by burning a Jordanian fighter pilot alive, massacring Shiites or beheading American hostages, the self-declared Islamic State (IS) has an unprecedented knack for making enemies. IS has also inadvertently achieved what the United States never accomplished during more than a decade in Iraq: the mobilization of a willing coalition of Arab countries to fight jihadi extremists. Still, in the first year of its so-called caliphate, IS’ aggressive expansion appears to have passed its zenith. Both on the internet and on the ground, there are many indicators that the group’s decline has already begun. But IS will likely endure for […]

From the popular uprising that toppled former President Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2011 and the subsequent power vacuum to the swift advance of the Houthi rebel movement from northern Yemen into the capital, Sanaa, last summer, Yemen has been described as perpetually “on the brink” in recent years. The presence of a local al-Qaida franchise in Yemen’s southern provinces and an ongoing, separate southern secessionist movement, known as Hirak, have only added to the country’s turmoil and confusion over where it was all headed. Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia, leading a coalition of other Arab states and supported by the […]

In the wake of recent violence in the Central African Republic, the United Nations announced today that it is sending an additional 1,000 peacekeepers to the war-torn country. In an email interview, Amadou Sy, director of the African Growth Initiative at the Brookings Institution, discussed the political and security situation in CAR. WPR: How successful has the French-led multinational intervention been at improving the security situation in Bangui and other major cities in CAR, and what are the next priorities for the mission? Amadou Sy: The French-led Operation Sangaris came at a critical juncture in the civil war, and put […]

When Juan Manuel Santos became president of Colombia in August 2010, it was clear he had one overriding aim: to end his country’s longstanding internal armed conflict, chiefly with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Re-elected to a second term last June, Santos now appears to be in the final stretch toward reaching a peace agreement with the FARC. Talks in Havana between government negotiators and FARC leadership have advanced enough for some victims of the conflict and an array of military officials to have joined the negotiations. In addition, Santos managed to get the United States to name […]

Reports over the past three months suggest that Pakistani military leaders and Afghan officials are renewing efforts to open direct talks between the Taliban and Kabul. Though these steps show signs of promise and should be supported by U.S. policymakers, expectations about the talks’ prospects for a swift resolution to the Afghanistan War should be measured, given the history of breakdowns of past efforts and the potential for spoilers on all sides to derail them. The last bid for peace talks, supported by the U.S. State Department and facilitated by Qatar, was abandoned in 2013 after Afghanistan’s then-President Hamid Karzai […]

In the modern security environment, insurgency is the strategy of choice for violent extremists. Even so, the United States insists on clinging to an outdated concept of insurgency steeped more in the anti-colonial struggles of the Cold War than the fluid battlefields where movements like the self-declared Islamic State (IS), Boko Haram and the al-Qaida affiliates in the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa lurk. During the Cold War, the most dangerous insurgencies blended a leftist ideology with nationalism. This combination gave revolutionary insurgency its reach, appealing to more supporters and recruits than either leftism or nationalism alone could have done. […]

More than ever, Iraq’s Sunnis remain ground zero in the struggle that is being waged against the so-called Islamic State (IS). Recent military successes by the international coalition formed by the United States last summer to counter the jihadis through the intercession of local fighters—particularly Iraqi and Syrian Kurdish militias—make it clear that the war’s outcome will in large part be determined on the battlefield. But any defeat of IS, which arose and has been fed principally by the failure of political powers to grasp the scale of the problem in time, must include a political component addressing Sunni grievances […]

Since taking office in 2011 after decades of iron-fisted military rule, Myanmar’s quasi-civilian government has faced the challenge of opening up a country long closed to the outside world and delivering on the promise of domestic reform. But it faces major security obstacles, too, in the long-running ethnic rebellions on its borders with India and China, one of which escalated last month in clashes that killed more than 50 Myanmarese troops and 70 Kokang rebels in northern Myanmar. The Kokang and other ethnic rebels have fought for greater autonomy, federalism or control over natural resources in their corners of Myanmar […]

Southeast Asia confronts a diverse range of challenges, from the need for reform in Indonesia to the erosion of democracy in Thailand. Some countries in the region are battling insurgencies at home, while others attempt to counter China’s rising influence abroad. This report draws on articles covering the region over the past year. Governance, Reform and Democracy Ruling Party the Only Significant Loser in Indonesia’s Parliamentary ElectionsBy Andrew ThornleyApr. 25, 2014 For Jokowi, Maintaining Indonesia’s Role Abroad Depends on Domestic ReformBy Prashanth ParameswaranAug. 4, 2014 Jokowi’s Test: Managing Indonesia’s Old Guard—and Civil Society’s HopesBy Sue Gunawardena-VaughnAug. 19, 2014 Corruption Concerns […]

Last weekend, the Iraqi government reopened the country’s national museum in Baghdad 12 years after it was looted during the U.S.-led invasion. The unexpectedly early reopening was a small act of defiance after militants of the self-declared Islamic State (IS), also known as ISIS, released a propaganda video showing a rampage through the Mosul Museum. Some of the objects destroyed by the extremists in Mosul were plaster reproductions, and when toppled over smashed quickly in a cloud of dust. But others were ancient limestone originals, millennia-old, struck with sledgehammers and jackhammers. The museum houses a vast collection of antiquities from […]

In recent months, Kenya has increased its crackdown on Islamic extremism, including mosque raids and alleged extrajudicial killings. In an email interview, Jeremy Prestholdt, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, discussed Kenya’s counterterrorism policies. WPR: What is Kenya’s current approach to counterterrorism, and how effective has it been at tackling terrorism threats? Jeremy Prestholdt: In recent years Kenya has experienced a dramatic increase in terrorist attacks. This escalation is closely linked to Kenyan military actions against al-Shabab insurgents in Somalia. In the wake of Kenya’s 2011 offensive, al-Shabab and its sympathizers in Kenya initiated a terror campaign […]

Is Russia a rogue power bent on ripping up the international rulebook? Or is it a master of diplomatic brinksmanship with an uncanny knack for turning multilateral negotiations to its advantage? Commentators in the United States and Europe increasingly fear that Moscow is set on a destructive course. Yet Western diplomats at the United Nations are frequently impressed by their Russian counterparts’ maneuvers. Last month, the Russians pulled off two small diplomatic coups in the Security Council. Shrugging off tensions over Ukraine and Syria, they initiated a resolution in early February aimed at cutting off funding to the so-called Islamic […]