Insurgencies Archive

Afghan officials were expected to enter into a second round of Pakistani-brokered talks with Taliban representatives this week, a highly contentious initiative upon which President Ashraf Ghani has staked his presidency. But that peace process became more uncertain with the announcement Wednesday by the Afghan government of the death of Mullah Omar, the militant movement’s reclusive leader, which prompted a Taliban spokesman to disavow talks and Pakistan to declare their postponement. Dealing with the Taliban insurgency, however, is far from the only domestic challenge facing the Ghani administration. Unresolved domestic rivalries and newly institutionalized tensions created by last year’s power-sharing […]

The rise of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) has further destabilized a region already in upheaval and dominated U.S. security policy in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Turkey and the U.S. came to a landmark agreement to establish an “Islamic State-free zone” on the Turkish-Syrian border, marking a potential turning point in the multinational effort to fight IS. This report covers the group’s ideology and strategy, its impact on and implications for the Middle East, and the U.S. strategy to combat its spread. All of the articles linked below are free for non-subscribers until Aug. 13. The Islamic State’s Ideology […]

The world has done a dreadful job of managing the civil war in Syria. Could it do any better at rebuilding peace there, if and when hostilities eventually slow down? This prospect still seems sadly remote. The Syrian government indicated last week that it is still not ready for new peace talks led by the United Nations. Yet there are signs that the regime is getting nervous. President Bashar al-Assad admitted this weekend that his army is depleted and has deliberately withdrawn from some battlefronts. In the event of a series of further defeats, the regime could yet conclude that […]

For decades U.S. policy in the Middle East focused on two things: Israel and oil. Helping to keep Israel secure was not hard since the Israelis themselves had it well under control. Making sure that oil flowed was more challenging since most of it was owned by brittle monarchies or dictators, but the United States and its allies found a way. This emphasis on Israel and oil led to an American strategy that was remarkably consistent even when the White House changed hands. Its goal was stability built on partnerships with local states when possible and direct action if necessary. […]

Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula is an insurgent’s dream. The corridor between Asia and Africa encompasses deserts, soaring mountains, plunging canyons and an expansive coastline. Most of its 23,000 square miles, roughly the same area as West Virginia, exist outside the control of the Egyptian state. Decades of neglect by successive Egyptian governments and limited economic development have resulted in a Sinai population that is largely disenfranchised and impoverished. Dark networks and crime syndicates proliferate, smuggling everything from drugs and weapons to people, to and from mainland Egypt, Gaza, Israel and further afield. In an area where development is limited and where […]

Now that negotiators have walked to the brink and returned with signed documents on two major international crises—Iran’s nuclear program and Greece’s debt—it’s time to look at another historic diplomatic effort that appears to be hanging by a thread: peace talks aimed at ending the world’s longest-running conflict, the war between the Colombian government and the FARC insurgency. The war has already lasted half a century, outliving countless revolutionary movements in poor countries and outlasting the Soviet-led push for a global workers’ revolution by decades. In the past three years, much of the contest has shifted from battlefields in the […]

On Tuesday, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari fired all of Nigeria’s military chiefs in preparation for a fresh multinational offensive against the Islamic extremist group Boko Haram. Despite an international coalition having driven insurgents out of numerous towns and villages in northeastern Nigeria, Boko Haram has ramped up attacks and suicide bombings recently, killing over 250 people this month. Buhari was elected in March, upsetting incumbent Goodluck Jonathan in a historic victory. “For the first time in Nigeria’s history as an independent nation, an incumbent leader was ousted not in a coup, but at the ballot box,” Sarah Chayes wrote in […]

After almost three years of talks, Colombia’s peace negotiations with the FARC guerrilla group will end soon—with or without an agreement. Amid an uptick in violence in recent months, Humberto de la Calle, the government’s chief negotiator, said in a July 5 interview with the Colombian media, “It’s clear to me that the process is coming to its end, for good or ill. It could be because we’ve reached an accord, as we’re in the homestretch of the fundamental issues [on the negotiation agenda]. Or for ill, if—as is happening—Colombians’ patience runs out.” Two days after de la Calle’s interview, […]

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which held its leaders summit in the Russian city of Ufa last week, remains a puzzle. Despite its potential, the organization has yet to have a major impact on world affairs. The decision at the summit to admit India and Pakistan as new members, which could occur as soon as 2016, should breathe new life into the organization. But the group’s future relevance will be determined by its ability to effectively address the continuing economic and security problems of neighboring Afghanistan. Afghanistan has been an area of collective interest for the SCO—which comprises China, Russia, […]

With water scarcity increasing political tension and threatening economic instability in countries across the world, transboundary water disputes often become highly charged and bitterly divisive. A prominent example has been the Nile basin in northeast Africa, where the nations sharing the Nile’s waters have for years sparred over their usage allotments amid concerns that upstream countries may interfere with water flow into downstream countries. Most recently, the region’s flashpoint for transboundary water conflict has been Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam, which within several years will stretch across the Blue Nile at the Ethiopian-Sudanese border. The controversial project has […]