Economics & Business Archive

Things are not looking good for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The man who built arguably the most stable, authoritarian and centralized administration in the former Soviet Union is now struggling to maintain control. A forced currency devaluation last month wiped out the savings of ordinary citizens, who subsequently took to the streets, plunging Minsk into chaos. Throughout May, Belarus teetered on the brink of economic collapse, and Lukashenko was rumored to be plotting to flee the country. An emergency $3 billion loan package from Russia, technically administered through the Eurasian Economic Community, has stabilized the situation for now, but the […]

Ukraine is moving to liberalize its land market, but, according to recent statements by the country’s agriculture minister, foreigners will be prohibited from purchasing agricultural land. In an email interview, Leo A. Krasnozhon, a visiting assistant professor of economics at the University of Texas at Arlington, discussed Ukraine’s agricultural land policies. WPR: What is the extent of Ukraine’s agricultural trade, and who are its major trading partners? Leo A. Krasnozhon: Agricultural trade plays a very important role in Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine is one of the top world exporters of grain, which generates 15 percent of the country’s exports, or $7.5 […]

The Western press is rife with stories about China’s growing conservatism, reflected by an ongoing crackdown on free speech by Chinese authorities as well as a Maoist revival in the interior provinces. In our alarm, we imagine the worst of all possible outcomes: an all-powerful Chinese economy lorded over by a political system that somehow reverts to its communist-era politics of open antagonism with the West. While there are powerful structural dynamics that work against this combination, we should nonetheless not fear it. To the extent that China’s economic trajectory is threatening to stall out, as it inevitably must at […]

Chinese foreign investment is often considered nonideological: Dictatorship or democracy, model state or pariah — if a country has natural resources, China is an eager investor. In Latin America the characterization rings true, as China has curried favor with left-leaning governments — in Venezuela and Ecuador — and right-leaning governments — in Chile and Colombia — alike. China’s relations with Cuba are a case in point, if a counterintuitive one. On a three-day visit to the island this week, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping and Cuban President Raúl Castro signed 10 accords and began talks on a five-year plan for […]

The Naval War College just completed its annual Current Strategy Forum, with this year’s topic being “Energy and U.S. National Security: Vulnerability and Opportunity.” Listening to the presentations, one could not help but be struck by the “chicken and egg” relationship between access to energy and U.S. grand strategy. Which should drive the other — and what are the various options? Rising energy costs, combined with economic austerity, means that “business as usual” is no longer an option for the U.S. military. A recent study by Deloitte noted (.pdf), “Warfare and combat operations are not the only variables driving [Defense […]

Last week’s announcement by Pentagon officials that cyberattacks could be classified as acts of war caused concern among those who worry that the United States might act outside international law if it retaliates to such attacks with military force. Others assert the move amounts to little more than a money grab by budget-savvy advocates looking to foment fear and exploit public ignorance. But many cybersecurity experts say the policy statement is merely the latest step in a strategy that President Barack Obama began developing two years ago. And, they say, it might act as a deterrent to would-be U.S. enemies. […]

With the turmoil in North Africa impacting Turkey’s primary commercial ties with the continent, Turkish exports to sub-Saharan Africa have grown sharply this year. In an email interview, Thomas Wheeler, a longtime South African diplomat and researcher at the South African Institute for International Affairs, discussed Turkey-Africa relations. WPR: What is the history of Turkey’s trade and diplomatic relations with sub-Saharan Africa? Thomas Wheeler: Turkey had few relations with sub-Saharan Africa until the 1990s. Admittedly, the Ottoman sultan appointed honorary consuls in South Africa in the 19th century, but during the Republican era from 1922, Ankara’s emphasis was on consolidating […]

The West Africa Cable System recently landed in Ghana, extending the reach of the new undersea telecommunications cable that will eventually run from South Africa to Western Europe. In an email interview, Patricia K. McCormick, an expert in developing-country telecommunications policy at Wayne State University, discussed Africa’s telecommunications infrastructure. WPR: What is the current state of Africa’s telecommunications infrastructure? Patricia K. McCormick: If the wealth and socio-economic health of a region is defined by its ability to participate in the networked economy, Africa is indeed impoverished. In an era of accelerated technological change, Africa’s technological dependency and underdevelopment impairs its […]

The defeat of Portugal’s Socialist Party in parliamentary elections last Sunday was largely reported as an indictment of the welfare state and spending policies embraced by the party and outgoing Prime Minister José Sócrates. However, Robert M. Fishman, a sociologist at the University of Notre Damewhose research focuseson the politics of Portugal and Spain, says the victorious Social Democrat Party (PSD) is unlikely to bring about the sort of significant rightward shift in policies heralded in much of the media coverage of the elections. “Historically the PSD has defended and enacted policies that are not hostile to the welfare state […]

During a recent visit to Vietnam by Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung called for the enhancement of trade and political ties between the two countries. In an email interview, Carlyle A. Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defense Force Academy, discussed Russia-Vietnam relations. WPR: What is the recent history of Russia-Vietnam relations? Carlyle A. Thayer: When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Moscow pressed Vietnam for repayment of debts totaling $1.7 billion, and the two sides took nearly a decade to negotiate a settlement. In 1994, they […]

Despite heavy rain this week, much of central China remains dry. The country’s worst drought in 50 years has reignited debate about the controversial Three Gorges Dam.

Taiwanese exporters are anticipating the arrival of July 1 with some anxiety. On that day, the free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union and South Korea, Taiwan’s archrival in trade, will come into effect. As 70-75 percent of Taiwan’s exports to the EU overlap with those from South Korea, and as Brussels is set to lift import tariffs on 93.9 percent of Korean products within the deal’s first year, it is all but certain that Taiwanese products will suffer in the European market. But the export-dependent island’s plight does not end there. In terms of FTAs, South Korea, which […]

According to a coordinated series of leaks to the media last week, the Pentagon is in the process of finalizing its first formal cybersecurity strategy. Several unnamed Defense Department officials have confirmed that the 30-page classified document will be completed later this month, with the Pentagon expected to release a declassified 12-page version as well. The leaking, which was deliberate, may be a trial balloon to gauge domestic and international response to the strategy’s tenets. That way the text could subsequently be revised, especially when it undergoes further White House review to ensure it harmonizes with the administration’s overall cybersecurity […]

Uganda recently held talks with Southern Sudan about importing oil from the soon-to-be-independent state. Meanwhile, Sudan engaged in broad-ranging talks with two of its western neighbors, the Central African Republic and Chad. In an email interview, Jonathan Temin, director of the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Sudan program, discussed the regional implications of south Sudan’s secession. WPR: How do Sudan’s sub-Saharan neighbors view South Sudan’s upcoming independence? Jonathan Temin: Historically, Sudan’s sub-Saharan neighbors, especially Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia, have been supportive of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and its political wing, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, as well as of […]

The appointment of U.S. Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff inspired some debate this week over why President Barack Obama passed over U.S. Marine Gen. James “Hoss” Cartwright — a previous front-runner for the post. But David Johnson, executive director of the Center for Advanced Defense Studies in Washington, says the decision to go with Dempsey was something of a no-brainer, since Dempsey stands a significantly better chance of reconciling different factions within the Pentagon over the issue of looming budget cuts. “He fits in very well both with the need to harmonize […]

It is time for President Barack Obama to initiate an informal, tripartite dialogue with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev about stabilizing the global price of oil. Leaving the decision in the hands of speculators has not served the interests of any of these three countries. At midweek, the price, while coming down, still stood higher than $100 a barrel, with Brent crude currently trading at roughly $112 a barrel. Counterintuitively, oil producers are hoping the price descends further, because if oil gets too expensive, customers begin looking for other sources of energy. Last week, speaking […]

When Brazil tried to join the ranks of the world’s diplomatic heavyweights, it did so loudly. In an attempt last year to convince the U.N. Security Council not to impose a third round of sanctions on Iran for refusing to freeze its uranium enrichment program, Brazil teamed up with Turkey to negotiate a nuclear fuel swap deal with Tehran. The maneuver failed: The council, under pressure from the U.S., U.K. and France, disregarded the agreement and went ahead with sanctions. It is perhaps no surprise, then, that when Dilma Rousseff took over as president of Brazil in January, she distanced […]