Domestic Politics Archive

In Honduras, the Central American country with the highest homicide rate in the world, the two largest and most dangerous street gangs declared a truce Tuesday. The agreement between MS-13 and Barrio 18 is modeled after one that took effect last year between the same gangs in El Salvador. “The success of the truce in El Salvador, which has reduced homicide levels from 14 per day to five per day since it was negotiated in March 2012, was certainly an important impetus for Honduras to test a similar path,” Rachel Schwartz, program associate at the Inter-American Dialogue, told Trend Lines […]

AMSTERDAM—When news of economic troubles in Europe started emerging in 2009, the prevailing narrative in the Netherlands, as in much of the northern part of the continent, held that cultural differences, even the weather, could help explain the problem. The troubles in Greece, one often heard the Dutch say, stemmed from a certain lack of discipline, perhaps understandable considering the temptations of leisure along the sunny Mediterranean coast. Almost five years later, Europe’s economic woes have reached the North Sea shores, sending a chill through one of the most disciplined economies of the European Union. The Netherlands is now in […]

On June 26, Mongolians will go to the polls to elect their next president, with incumbent Tsakhia Elbegdorj predicted to return to office with a renewed mandate. His principal challenge comes from B. Bat-Erdene, who maintains a strong base of populist support in Mongolia’s rural areas. The third candidate, Natsag Udval, is a staunch supporter of former President Nambar Enkybayar, currently serving a two-and-a-half year jail term on corruption charges. According to Julian Dierkes, a Mongolia expert at the University of British Colombia, Udval is unlikely to gain more than 5 percent of the vote, but her candidacy is noteworthy […]

Nigeria could be a dominant political force and engine for economic development in Africa and beyond. It has a large population with a highly educated professional class. Its proven petroleum reserves are the world’s 10th largest. And its military is one of the largest in sub-Saharan Africa, with extensive experience in multinational peacekeeping. Unfortunately, though, Nigeria’s problems run as deep as its potential. It has suffered some of the most rapacious and persistent government corruption in the world. Nigerian leaders, both military and civilian, have stolen untold billions while the nation sinks deeper into poverty. Many Nigerians use their impressive […]

Prior to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s mid-May visit to Washington, the expectation among many observers was that the Turkish leader would be coming to the White House to press a reluctant President Barack Obama to commit to supporting more forceful—that is, military—action against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, Erdogan’s trip played out quite differently. Rather than Erdogan convincing Obama to change positions, it was the U.S. president who got the normally strong-willed Turkish prime minister to soften his tone and publicly support the Geneva II process, Washington’s effort to convene an international conference next month on […]

This month, Iceland’s new conservative coalition government announced it would suspend talks to accede to the European Union, pending a referendum on whether the talks should continue. In an email interview, Maximilian Conrad, an assistant professor of European politics at the University of Iceland, discussed this decision and the recent history of Iceland’s relations with the EU. WPR: What were the reasons behind Iceland’s EU accession application, and what is driving the coalition government’s decision to suspend accession talks? Maximilian Conrad: The Icelandic decision to apply for EU membership can only be understood against the backdrop of the “kreppa,” Iceland’s […]

The Arab Uprisings were principally sparked by the brutality of the security sector in almost every single country where they occurred. In Tunisia, Mohammed Bouazizi’s self-immolation following an insult by the police in December 2010 triggered the revolution. In Egypt, the June 2010 murder by two policemen of Internet activist Khaled Said, followed by the brutality of police during the fraudulent parliamentary elections of November-December 2010, set the revolution’s context. In Libya, the arrest in February 2011 of Fathy Terbil—a human rights lawyer who had represented the families of the victims of the June 1996 Abu Selim Prison massacre, in […]

Bolivian President Evo Morales’ successful push to clear the way for a potential third term in office has reinforced the fears of many observers who, ever since he was first elected president in December 2005, have lumped Morales in with the wave of populist, anti-democratic leaders in Venezuela, Ecuador and Nicaragua. Morales joined ALBA, the alliance of leftist countries assembled and underwritten by former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez; he engaged in the time-honored tradition of leftist “yanqui” bashing; and he has whittled away institutional checks and balances on executive power. But in important economic and political ways, Bolivia was and […]

The Libyan city of Benghazi saw a string of bombings early this month, highlighting Libya’s remaining internal security challenges two years after the fall of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi. In an email interview, William Lawrence, director of International Crisis Group’s North Africa project, explained the landscape of Libya’s armed groups and the international role in security sector reform. WPR: What are the main armed groups currently operating in Libya, and what are their goals? William Lawrence: As reported by Small Arms Survey in June 2012 and in Crisis Group’s “Holding Libya Together” and “Divided We Stand,” there are four types […]

In his speech yesterday at the National Defense University, President Barack Obama offered a detailed and comprehensive vision of how he plans to wind down the global war on terrorism. Perhaps inspired by the continued and growing criticism from his political base that his maintenance—and expansion—of executive powers inherited from the George W. Bush administration was setting troubling precedents for future chief executives, Obama announced his interest in limiting the legal basis for any future president’s ability to wield vast national security powers. He also outlined a “second go” at closing the facility at Guantanamo Bay; his first effort, heralded […]

There have been conflicting reports regarding the health of Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika since he was airlifted to a military hospital in Paris, France, for treatment following a mini-stroke in late-April. Algerian Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal has denied rumors that the president, who remains in France, is seriously ill. But speculation over who might replace Bouteflika, and what might come next for the North African country he has presided over since 1999, continues. While Bouteflika may yet return to Algeria, his health makes it unlikely that he will be able to stand for re-election in the presidential balloting set for […]

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is well-known for being firm toward Pyongyang and demonstrating solidarity with Washington. More than any other politician, he has made retrieving Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea his political mission. Moreover, during his summit with President Barack Obama in January he declared, “The trust and the bond in our alliance is back.” But something happened last week that seems unlike Abe. Isao Iijima, a special adviser to the prime minister, made a secret trip to Pyongyang for reasons unknown, although many are speculating he is trying to advance dialogue on resolving the abduction issue and […]

Since late-March, when the rebel coalition Seleka took power in the Central African Republic (CAR), security has broken down in the country. United Nations Representative Margaret Vogt recently stated that CAR has entered “a state of anarchy”; in April, rebel-appointed Prime Minister Nicolas Tiangaye called for French and African help in restoring order. With Seleka struggling to turn military triumph into durable rule, CAR’s neighbors will likely see an increase in the circulation of refugees, fighters and weapons. Through March, international actors sought to keep deposed President Francois Bozize in power and peacefully resolve the conflict, which had reignited in […]

As President Barack Obama learned during his whirlwind trip to Mexico in early May 2013, President Enrique Pena Nieto, like his predecessors, is eager to lessen his nation’s security, economic and trade dependence on the United States. During the visit, the U.S. chief executive discussed economic cooperation, education, border infrastructure, migration and the drug war. “We’ve done a lot of work with the previous Mexican administration on security issues and on economic issues. But sometimes the relationship gets characterized just as being about borders or just about drug cartels,” Obama told the Spanish-language network Telemundo. Proximity, joint assembly ventures, and […]

Security has crumbled on Tunisia’s western border with Algeria in recent months. A small but destructive group of jihadi militants with links to al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has infiltrated the region, with weighty security implications for both Tunisia and Algeria. To successfully rout the jihadists in the short term, the Tunisian military needs better equipment, which the government has promised to deliver. But it is not yet clear whether Tunis is ready to pursue the deeper military and economic reforms needed to quell the terrorist threat in the long term. Tunisian government forces have so far failed to […]

KABUL, Afghanistan—In a surprise move in mid-April, Germany announced it is ready to provide between 600 and 800 troops to the as yet undefined NATO training contingent that will replace the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan after it comes to an end in 2014. It was the first such announcement by any country, including the United States. Washington is in the process of negotiating with Kabul the bilateral strategic agreement that should lay out the framework for a reduced but continued presence of American troops starting in 2015. Germany’s attempt to pull ahead of the pack is […]

This month, the Cote d’Ivoire government announced a plan to repatriate 200 former rebel fighters who had been exiled to Togo in the wake of Cote d’Ivoire’s post-election violence in 2010. In an email interview, Arthur Boutellis, a research fellow and adviser to the Peace Operations and Africa programs at the International Peace Institute, described the state of Cote d’Ivoire’s security sector reform and the obstacles to further progress. WPR: What has been the recent trajectory of Cote d’Ivoire’s security sector since the violence surrounding November 2010 elections? Arthur Boutellis: The security sector could have been a key driver of […]