Domestic Politics Archive

The Party of Regions, the governing party of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, is on track to retain control over parliament after claiming victory in elections held over the weekend. The results of the widely criticized polling reflected the persistent fault lines that divide the country’s moderate center, its European-leaning western region and the pro-Russian east. “The good news is that Ukrainians voted in large numbers and that the parliament will now be more diverse,” Alexander Motyl, a professor of political science and deputy director of the Division of Global Affairs at the Rutgers Newark College of Arts and Sciences, told […]

Editor’s note: Ulrike Guérot’s the Continentalist column will return next Monday. With the U.S. presidential campaign entering the home stretch, it is already evident that foreign policy will not play a major role in the election outcome. As the third and final presidential debate highlighted, the foreign policy discussion has ignored wide swathes of critical issues, including how to respond to China’s rise and the resulting shifts in Asia’s regional balance of power; how to re-establish America’s relevance in an increasingly self-reliant Latin America; how to penetrate Africa’s promising but increasingly competitive economic landscape; and how to balance America’s lingering […]

Critical assessments of Mexico’s oil industry in general and of its state-owned oil company, Pemex, in particular are commonplace, often with good reason: Both face many challenges in overcoming the historical legacies that have long undermined their performance. Nevertheless, when President Felipe Calderon’s term in office ends on Dec. 1, he will be leaving both in better shape than when his presidency began six years ago. True, there have been strategic misfires under his administration. Pemex’s opaque expenditure of almost $2 billion for an increased stake in Spanish oil company Repsol stands out, both for the lack of strategic oversight […]

As China’s once-in-a-decade political transition nears, the announcement this week of the promotions of five generals has brought the parallel transition in China’s military leadership into focus. The appointees are widely expected to become members of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the ultimate source of military authority in the country, according to the New York Times. Two experts who spoke with Trend Lines said these individuals are a piece of the larger puzzle of China’s military modernization. “These individuals are going to bring a worldview, a set of experiences, that will shape how China becomes a regional and global military,” […]

Following considerable speculation that it would be postponed or even cancelled, the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene in Beijing on Nov. 8. The meeting marks the beginning of the final leg of China’s extended leadership transition process and should give greater clarity on China’s direction in the coming decade. Over the past two years, China’s intricate and opaque leadership structure has been shaken to the core by a series of high-profile political scandals amid elevated economic uncertainty. Major disagreements on how to respond to these challenges have riven elite groups, and the factional coalition […]

When Mitt Romney vowed during the last presidential debate that, if elected president, he would push for an indictment by the International Criminal Court of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, some of the most powerful people in Tehran surely flashed a smile. Romney argued that Ahmadinejad’s long history of provocative statements regarding Israel and the Jews “amount to genocide incitation,” an indictable offense under international conventions. Of course, the Republican presidential nominee was really trying to convince American voters that he would be tougher on Iran than President Barack Obama. The tactic of targeting Ahmadinejad, however, would only please much of […]

Having already overseen a spectacular warming of ties with mainland China, with 18 signed cross-strait agreements to show for it, Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou took the latest step in his National Day speech on Oct. 10, approving a plan to allow both sides to set up representative offices on each other’s soil. But permitting Chinese officials to have a permanent presence on the de facto independent island is a controversial step, drawing inevitable comparisons to Beijing’s liaison office in Hong Kong, which is widely seen as meddling in politics there. On Sunday, Lin Join-sane, the new chairman of the Straits […]

A car bomb killed at least eight people Friday in Beirut, Lebanon, including Wissam al-Hassan, the country’s head of police intelligence and one of the more powerful opponents of Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs. Hassan’s assassination threatens to further polarize a country where tensions were already running high due to the civil war next door. Julien Barnes-Dacey, a senior policy fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Trend Lines that while the Syrian conflict is clearly exacerbating divisions within Lebanon, until now, the country has shown a greater degree of […]

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series on the implications of the African National Congress’ decline for South Africa’s political landscape. Part I examined the factors contributing to the ANC’s decline. Part II examines the prospects for the opposition Democratic Alliance to become an alternative governing party. The African National Congress (ANC) is trapped in a systemic crisis from which it cannot extricate itself. Consequently, the wellbeing of South African democracy requires a shift from the current one-party dominant system to a more competitive multiparty system. One route to this outcome is through the fragmentation of the […]

Yesterday’s regional elections in Spain’s Basque region have demonstrated again the strength of blood ties and the resurgence of localism in a time of globalization. People are increasingly seeking protection close to home, an urge that seems light years away from the European Union’s postmodern supranational ambitions. The good news is that, these days, the push for local autonomy comes without violence. But if the Basque country has moved beyond the separatist terrorism of the ETA, the strong showing by the pro-independence party Bildu means that assertive regionalism now means taking over real political responsibility. It is no longer a […]

A media court in Iran found the Tehran bureau chief of Reuters guilty of propaganda-related crimes late last month. In an email interview, Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at St. Andrews University, discussed the climate of dissent in Iran. WPR: What is the current climate for dissent in Iran, in terms of press freedoms and political discourse, and how has this evolved over the past few years? Ali Ansari: The high-water mark of press freedom and activism in Iran occurred during the first Khatami administration, which began in 1997. These freedoms were gradually rolled back starting […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series on the implications of the African National Congress’ decline for South Africa’s political landscape. Part I examines the factors contributing to the ANC’s decline. Part II will examine the prospects for the opposition Democratic Alliance to become an alternative governing party. Despite President Jacob Zuma’s claim that the African National Congress (ANC) will rule South Africa “until Jesus comes again,” the party, which celebrates its 100th anniversary this year, is on an irreversible downward electoral trajectory. Its support fell for the first time in a general election in 2009 and […]

On Tuesday, the Cuban government announced that it would ease the highly restrictive travel laws it has kept in place for more than 50 years. Beginning next year, Cubans will no longer need an exit visa to leave the island, requiring instead only a passport and a visa for their destination country. Two experts spoke with Trend Lines about the impact the reforms will have. “The big question is how many Cubans will now rush to leave the island,” Ted Piccone, senior fellow and deputy director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, wrote Trend Lines in an email, adding […]

In George Lucas’ dystopian 1971 film, “THX-1138,” the protagonist is pursued by police after attempting to escape from a futuristic totalitarian city-state. However, the city has only budgeted a certain amount to cover the costs of the pursuit. In the penultimate scene, as the officers are about to recapture the renegade, the comptroller’s office informs them that because of cost overruns, the chase is to be terminated. “Economics make it necessary to terminate any operation which exceeds five percent of its primary budget,” the officers are told. With the specter of sequestration — which on Jan. 1, 2013, is set […]

Benjamin Netanyahu will soon face Israeli voters again. And in a curious coincidence, the Israeli prime minister, who took office just a few weeks after Barack Obama did in the U.S., will see his fate decided at the polls Jan. 22, 2013, exactly two days after the U.S. presidential inauguration in Washington, where Obama may or may not be taking the oath of office again. In contrast with the American election, however, the race in Israel does not look close. The pundits agree that Netanyahu will handily beat his rivals, with his Likud party winning the most seats and his […]

Earlier this month, King Abdullah of Jordan dissolved parliament and called early elections, prompting large-scale protests with demonstrators calling for changes to the country’s newly enacted electoral law. In an email interview, Sean Yom, an assistant professor of political science at Temple University, discussed protests and reform in Jordan. WPR: What is at stake in the dispute over Jordan’s electoral law? Sean Yom: The dispute over the electoral law implicates the very future of democratization in Jordan. Unfairness at the core of the current system rankles almost all members of the opposition, from the Islamist establishment to secular youth movements. […]

ABIDJAN, Côte d’Ivoire — Last week, five suspects appeared at Abidjan’s Palace of Justice for the opening of the first trial related to Côte d’Ivoire’s recent bout of postelection violence. The conflict, which began after former President Laurent Gbagbo refused to step down despite losing the November 2010 election to current President Alassane Ouattara, claimed at least 3,000 lives and displaced hundreds of thousands. Eighteen months after the power struggle ended with Gbagbo’s arrest in April 2011, persistent political divisions have largely thwarted efforts at national reconciliation. The beginning of the justice process is seen as a potential catalyst for […]