Domestic Politics Archive

The protests that began in Istanbul last month and soon spread throughout Turkey have become a globally watched demonstration against Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his recent policies. By their nature and, most importantly, because this crisis was so badly managed by the prime minister, the protests will undoubtedly represent a turning point in the country’s political life, affecting Turkish society and democracy. However, the past month’s events, while alarming, do not necessarily represent the worst-case scenario for Turkish democracy that many have made them out to be. In fact, the protests in Turkey are reinvigorating public debate in […]

As the people of Zimbabwe steel themselves for another election cycle and their leaders argue over the timing of the poll, international investors are watching political developments with interest. Excitement about the economic opportunities in Zimbabwe, combined with frustration at the lack of good policy options to hasten the departure of President Robert Mugabe, has fueled a growing desire to explore alternatives to the political stalemate. The European Union has already shown its willingness to open a new chapter in its relations with Zimbabwe. In March, Brussels suspended sanctions against 81 officials and eight companies linked to Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party. […]

One year ago this Sunday, on June 30, 2012, Mohammed Morsi became president of Egypt, 18 months after revolutionary euphoria had flooded Cairo’s sweltering streets. The Muslim Brotherhood stalwart had come to power in the wake of the Tahrir Square pro-democracy uprising that toppled the three-decades-old dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak. It would count as a massive understatement to call Morsi’s first year in office a disappointment. To see just how thoroughly Egyptians feel Morsi has let them down, follow events in Cairo and elsewhere in the country this Sunday, as the country marks the anniversary with expected massive protests calling […]

If there was ever a threat to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s leadership in recent months, it was annihilated last weekend. Not a single candidate from Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost in the latest Tokyo municipal government elections, while the biggest national opposition party even fell behind the Communists. Though Abe’s political dominance could bring an end to Japan’s stretch of political instability, the country’s economic future remains shaky at best, and the lack of any meaningful opposition to the LDP can only bode ill for the country’s longer-term prospects. Voters in Tokyo, who are generally regarded as […]

In Kuwait, where the Constitutional Court has ordered the dissolution of parliament for the second time in a year, the Cabinet decided in an emergency meeting to call parliamentary elections for next month. Now the timing of those elections is in question after the Cabinet moved Monday to delay the vote. Initially scheduled for July 25, when held the elections will be the sixth in seven years for the Persian Gulf state, where, as Al Jazeera reported, “political upheaval has stalled infrastructure development and delayed economic reforms.” “Kuwait is passing through a period of extended political turbulence and uncertainty, as […]

When Pakistan’s newly elected prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, appointed his Cabinet, he decided to keep two major portfolios for himself: foreign affairs and defense. The move was widely interpreted as emanating from the civil-military imbalance that defines decision-making on foreign and security policy in Pakistan. Senior members of Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) explained that Sharif wanted to prevent the kind of “misunderstandings” between the prime minister and the military on matters of foreign affairs that had occurred in the past, and added, “We’ve been dominated by the military for decades. And they still think they are superior to the […]

The European Union is widely considered by students of international relations to be the most successful experiment in international cooperation in human history. According to this view, the EU has demonstrably fostered unprecedented peace, prosperity and power on the European continent. The award of the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize to the Union, on the grounds that it had “for over six decades contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe” vindicates this view. Yet, the Union is also the subject of increasingly vitriolic criticism by populist parties across Europe, who have made political gains—sometimes […]

When South Sudan formally declared its independence from the Republic of Sudan in July 2011, jubilant celebrations in the world’s newest country were almost equally matched by gloomy predictions about a failed state in the making. The past two years have done little to dispel the dire predictions that institutions in the South would not be able to cope with the enormous challenges of building a viable state. While not formally ranked in the 2012 Fund for Peace Failed States Index, the available data suggest that only three countries in the world score worse on indicators of state failure. This […]

In Brazil, protests that began in opposition to a hike in bus fares are continuing even after Sao Paulo and Rio De Janiero agreed to reverse the fare increase. Demonstrators yesterday targeted government corruption and excessive spending on preparations to host the 2014 World Cup. “There is not one clear, unified set of demands,” Mary Paula Arends-Kuenning, director of the Lemann Institute for Brazilian Studies at University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, said in an email interview. “The immediate one would be to lower public transportation fares. But the aims have expanded to increased public investment in schools, health and public transportation, […]

A recent reshuffle of Uganda’s military command by longtime President Yoweri Museveni installed into the leadership a new generation of younger, more loyal officers effectively headed by Museveni’s son, Brig. Muhoozi Kainerugaba. The move is seen as aimed to strengthen Museveni’s grip on an army that has recently appeared to lack discipline due to growing displeasure within its senior ranks. But it also left the president as the sole remaining high-ranking member of the group that captured power a quarter-century ago. Museveni now rules, without any obvious challenger, a very tense country. The mainstream opposition, including the Forum for Democratic […]

One can picture Argentinian President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner watching the recent protests in Brazil with more than a little satisfaction. After all, Argentina and Brazil, perennial rivals in countless fields, are both facing challenging times. And Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, has had strained relations with her neighbor across the border. But don’t confuse the troubles in Brazil with those in Argentina. Fernandez’s woes are to a large extent of her own making, and that’s a view that Rousseff has expressed to her Argentinian counterpart. Both countries may have experienced slowing growth and mass protests, but while Argentinians protested against […]

Turkish Cypriot President Dervis Eroglu appointed Sibel Siber to head a caretaker government last week after the government of the territory, which is recognized only by Turkey following its 1974 invasion, collapsed on June 5. In an email interview, Michális Michael, research fellow and deputy director of the center for dialogue at La Trobe University, explained the background of the political crisis and its ramifications for the island’s peace process. WPR: What led to the vote of no confidence against former Prime Minister Irsen Kucuk? Michális S. Michael: Eight disaffected deputies from the ruling Ulusal Birlik Partisi (National Ruling Party, […]

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki recently concluded his first trip in years to Irbil, capital of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, without having made any tangible progress toward resolving the feud between the central Iraqi government and the Iraqi Kurds, who are developing their own energy industry and exporting oil to Turkey. Discussing the position of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) amid regional turmoil, the experts who spoke with Trend Lines emphasized the Kurds’ interest in normalizing relations with Iraq’s central government in Baghdad. “By seeking a future with Turkey instead of Iraq, some Kurdish leaders may think they do […]

The unexpected victory of centrist candidate Hasan Rowhani in Iran’s presidential election last week signals a significant shift in Iranian politics. Rowhani began his campaign as a moderate who was unlikely to cause trouble for Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, or the conservative ruling elite. After the disqualification of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and the decision by reformist candidate Mohammad Reza Aref to drop out of the race, however, the reformists and supporters of Rafsanjani rallied around Rowhani. As a result, large segments of the electorate came to see him as an alternative to the conservative candidates favored […]

Reports are spreading and speculation is rising that Qatar is nearing a major leadership transition, with the crown prince expected to become prime minister in the next few weeks before replacing his father as emir. Both Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani and Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa are expected to step down and cede power to Crown Prince Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani. Michael Stephens, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, said the question is not whether the transition will happen but when and how […]

BOLOGNA, Italy—It is easy to be deceived by Italy. The country that gave us the term “la dolce vita” knows how to live well. In this northern city, an intersection of Italy’s most remarkable achievements in industry, education, architecture and gastronomy, one could miss the undercurrents of crisis flowing across the nation’s landscape. Like other countries in Europe, particularly those in the south, along the Mediterranean coast, Italy is living through a major economic contraction. On the surface, the drama is less visible than in places like Spain and Greece. Upon closer examination, however, one discovers that the Italian recession […]

There was heavy fighting last week between the Malian army and separatists belonging to the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), a Tuareg separatist group fighting for autonomy in northern Mali from a stronghold in the city of Kidal. This week, a Malian government delegation reached an agreement with the Tuareg rebels. The cease-fire deal “in principle” would allow the elections scheduled for July 28 to take place in the disputed region. But the experts who spoke with Trend Lines do not expect that any lasting solutions to the demands of the Tuaregs, rebels who have refused to […]