Domestic Politics Archive

Editor’s note: Catherine Cheney is reporting on German policymaking this week as part of the German-American Fulbright Commission’s Berlin Capital Program, which is funded by the German Foreign Office. BERLIN — Following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, Germany announced an expensive and accelerated departure away from nuclear technology and toward renewable sources such as wind and solar. The latest step in that transition came yesterday, when the German parliament passed legislation to help prevent blackouts as the country’s reliance on renewables grows. Experts told Trend Lines that Fukushima confirmed Germans’ worries about nuclear energy, forcing the government to rapidly […]

BEIJING — After much fanfare and stagecraft, China’s leadership transition, the most prolonged and pored-over in more than 30 years, ultimately ended with a distinct sense of anticlimax. The seven men who will rule China are, as reported by the South China Morning Post two weeks before the event, largely older, conservative cadres. Their identical suits and coiffures, as well as their stiff demeanor amid the stifling Stalinist décor, underscored the apparent dislocation between them and the society they have been anointed to lead. This is a group unlikely to implement the kind of accelerated reforms to China’s politics, economy […]

The past two weeks have brought major political and strategic changes to the Middle East, particularly in Israel, which saw a military confrontation with Hamas-ruled Gaza as well as a feverish pace of political activity in advance of upcoming parliamentary elections. Developments in Israel on both the military and political front have implications for the prospects of a much-discussed war with Iran. The question is whether the changes on the ground make a war with Iran more or less likely. The war with Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza pitted Israel against groups linked and partly armed by the […]

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is battling an angry middle class, disgruntled unions and the country’s biggest media group. But despite growing social unrest and her own falling popularity ratings, the defiant Kirchner has vowed not to diverge from her left-wing model. Hundreds of thousands of Argentines protested across the country on Nov. 8 against what they view as Kirchner’s creeping authoritarianism. The mass demonstration, dubbed 8N, was followed by the nation’s first general strike in more than a decade on Nov. 20. Media conglomerate Clarín, meanwhile, is refusing to adhere to an anti-monopoly law […]

After a successful appeal at a United Nations tribunal, Croatian national hero Gen. Ante Gotovina, who led a 1995 offensive to retake a region of Croatia from Serbian militant control, was acquitted of war crimes last week. The International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia reversed the convictions of war crimes and crimes against humanity against Gotovina and Mladen Markac, a more junior general. Gotovina’s conviction in 2011 had dealt a blow to the image of Croatians as victims, rather than perpetrators, of the atrocities committed during the breakup of Yugoslavia. The successful appeal now provides Serbs with another example […]

Czech Prime Minister Czech Petr Necas announced plans earlier this month to significantly increase Czech nuclear power production by building new reactors at existing nuclear plants. In an email interview, Andrej Nosko, a doctoral student at Central European University, discussed the Czech energy sector. WPR: What is the breakdown of Czech energy consumption, in terms of fuel types and sources? Andrej Nosko: The majority of Czech final energy consumption is comprised of domestic solid fuels (12 percent), imported petroleum and products (26 percent), gases (26 percent) and electricity (19 percent). Electricity is generated mostly by coal-powered plants, which rely heavily […]

In the early 1970s, demographers began to spot a new pattern of human behavior that they had never seen before. In 1970, when Sweden, Finland and Denmark conducted their annual tallies of births and deaths for the previous year, the numbers suggested that young adults were having so few children that they would not succeed in replacing their generation. This finding contradicted all reigning theories of human population. Until then, demographers, as well as thinking people in general, had always believed that human beings would inevitably produce more than enough children to sustain the population — at least until plague, […]

Commentary on generational conflict and the radicalism of youth goes back at least as far as the ancient Greeks — from the tragedies of Oedipus to the comedies of Aristophanes, we find the younger generation contesting the power and morals of their elders. Such conflict is probably always present to some degree in every family and every generation. Yet the coalescence of individual youthful impatience with the ways of the older generation into social movements of rebellion or revolution is something that happens more rarely and only when certain economic, political and social conditions prevail. It is far too simple, […]

The Chinese Communist Party’s ability to manage public opinion is second only to the strength of economic development in determining the survival of the regime. As China officially unveils its next generation of leaders, the experience of the past decade shows a party-state struggling to adapt to a fast-changing media landscape. Throughout the reform era, the CCP has promoted the media’s role of guiding public opinion in both theory and practice. The speeches of China’s top officials concerning the media emphasized its role in providing “guidance.” Meanwhile, the party-state increased the status and responsibility of the Central Propaganda Department (CPD). […]

CARACAS — With campaigning for Venezuela’s December gubernatorial races now officially under way, the country’s political opposition finds itself in a tough spot. Still licking its wounds from its loss in October’s presidential election, the Democratic Unity Coalition (MUD) must get quickly off the mat to prove its credibility not only to a weary electorate but also to its own fractious members. In the wake of the presidential contest, the MUD leadership is doing everything it can to reassure the more than 6.5 million citizens who cast their ballots for opposition challenger Henrique Capriles Radonski of the coalition’s prospects in […]

The main reason behind Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision last week to remove Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov has become clearer in recent days with the subsequent firing of Chief of Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov and other senior defense officials and military officers in Russia’s Ministry of Defense. Taken together, the dismissals suggest that the shakeup was not due primarily to sex scandals, corrupt practices or alienation of the officer corps, as has been claimed by various observers. Rather, the purge was the result of a power struggle over who should control the distribution of the $700 billion that Putin pledged […]

If the U.S. presidential election had only been about the economy, Barack Obama would not have been re-elected. The U.S. federal government runs a $16 trillion deficit, a historical peak of sovereign debt whose only precedent dates back to World War II. And with 23 million Americans unemployed, the unemployment rate has not decreased dramatically since the outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, with regard to the policy issues raised by the crisis itself, there has been little follow through on the numerous decisions taken by the G-20 to better contain and control financial markets. To the contrary, financial […]

Over the next several weeks, the parameters of President Barack Obama’s second-term national security and foreign policy team will begin to take shape. Both Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta are expected to tender their resignations and retire from the administration. The new occupants of these posts, in turn, will change the composition of both departments through their appointments to senior policy positions. There has also been talk about a shake-up in the White House staff, as the president gears up to meet the challenges that were deferred or ignored due to the exigencies of […]

Sergei Shoigu officially took over as Russia’s new defense minister yesterday, but the reasons for the sudden dismissal of his predecessor, Anatoliy Serdyukov, remain uncertain. Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that he dismissed Serdyukov to allow authorities to investigate allegations of widespread corruption in the Defense Ministry. Serdyukov, who has cracked down on corruption within the armed forces, is accused of allowing his key subordinates and family members to enrich themselves in more sophisticated ways, such as by selling off valuable Defense Ministry properties at below market prices to friendly buyers in return for kickbacks. But Russian and Western media […]

South Sudan has embarked on a program to transform the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), the country’s preindependence guerrilla army, into a professional, conventional force by 2017. However, the success of this transformation strategy, referred to as Objective Force 2017, is contingent on a number of factors, including the absence of major conflict with Sudan, South Sudan’s ability to recover from the impact of this year’s austerity budget and the military’s ability to undertake a significant reduction in force. The precise size of the SPLA is not known, but is estimated to be as high as 210,000 soldiers. As Objective […]

On Monday, Musallam al-Barrak, a prominent opposition leader in Kuwait, was arrested after making comments critical of Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, ruler of the Persian Gulf state. The arrest comes against a backdrop of heightened tensions in Kuwait. The Arab Spring uprisings have worsened relations between Kuwait’s ruling family and the elected parliament, and in recent weeks a set of electoral reforms expected to diminish the power of the opposition has been met with violent protests. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a research fellow and Kuwait expert at the London School of Economics, told Trend Lines that al-Barrak’s arrest threatens to […]

In recent years, democratic legitimacy has become a requirement for wielding power in an increasing number of countries. Populations that endured years of dictatorship now demand the right to elect their leaders. In a growing number of cases, however, politicians with authoritarian tendencies have found a way to game the system, extending their rule, seemingly indefinitely, while technically preserving their claim to democratic and constitutional lawfulness. The most remarkable aspect of this new trend is how well it works, and how much it seems to be spreading. Politicians in places as different and distant as Venezuela and Russia have successfully […]