Domestic Politics Archive

In early April, former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh left Yemen for medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, an example of Saudi Arabia’s deep involvement in the political transition of its southern neighbor. In an email interview, Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton, explained the mechanics and the limitations of Saudi Arabia’s influence in Yemen. WPR: What are Saudi Arabia’s main levers of influence in Yemen? Bernard Haykel: Saudi Arabia has long-standing relationships with most, if not all, political, tribal and regional actors in Yemen. The principal form this relationship takes is payments offered by the Saudis […]

In an election held Sunday to choose a replacement for former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who died last month, Chavez’s anointed successor, Nicolas Maduro, narrowly beat rival Henrique Capriles for the presidency. Capriles has refused to concede the election, citing some 3,200 voting irregularities, and is demanding a recount. In separate email interviews, two Venezuela experts who spoke with Trend Lines agreed that while Maduro won the election, his narrow margin of victory represented a kind of defeat. “It leaves him seriously weakened,” said David Smilde, a sociology professor at the University of Georgia and senior fellow at the Washington […]

Zimbabwe’s political and economic decline since 2000 has been a major preoccupation for South African policymakers, severely testing Pretoria’s ability to juggle often contradictory narratives in its foreign policy discourse: on one hand, a commitment to democracy and human rights, and on the other, liberation solidarity, the promotion of an African consensus and a residual anti-Western sentiment in the ruling African National Congress (ANC). With Zimbabwe now on the cusp of fresh elections, this issue is set to return to the top of the South African agenda. The elections will take place under a new constitution overwhelmingly endorsed by Zimbabwean […]

Malaysia has chosen May 5 as the date of national elections that will decide whether Prime Minister Najib Razak’s National Front, the multiethnic political coalition that has governed the country since independence, will hold on to power. The main opposition coalition, the People’s Alliance, which made gains in the 2008 elections, continues to close the National Front’s narrow lead in opinion polls. “This is a critical turning point for the country,” Bridget Welsh, associate professor of political science at Singapore Management University, told Trend Lines. “It will have to decide whether to stick with the incumbent government of 55 years, […]

In December, if only for a brief moment, the prospects of a brighter future for Venezuela-U.S. relations appeared on the horizon. With Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s firebrand socialist president, having just returned to Cuba to undergo what would be his final cancer treatment, his vice president and anointed successor, Nicolas Maduro, announced that Caracas would engage in a dialogue with Washington to examine and possibly improve bilateral relations. Five months later, Chavez is dead, and this Sunday Venezuelans will vote in a snap election for a new president. The election will decide whether Chavez’s so-called Bolivarian revolution, a policy of social […]

Colombians under 65 cannot remember living in a country at peace. Internal armed conflict has raged almost continuously in the South American nation since 1948. With talks ongoing between the government and the larger of the country’s two leftist guerrilla groups, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Colombians may soon discover what peace is like. But they may find it only a bit more peaceful or secure than what came before. The talks taking place in Havana, Cuba, which are the fourth peace process attempted with the FARC since 1982, have a better-than-even chance of resulting in an accord. […]

Whoever succeeds Hugo Chavez as Venezuela’s president will inherit a country deeply marked by the late leader’s populist politics. At home, Chavez leaves behind a powerful political movement but many weakened government institutions. Regionally, the durability of the alliances he built on a foundation of cheap energy is uncertain. Meanwhile, the U.S. should seek opportunities to reframe its Venezuela policy for the post-Chavez era. Domestic Legacy After Chávez, Future of Venezuelan Democracy UnclearBy Catherine CheneyMarch 6, 2013 Despite Political Uncertainty, Venezuela Remains Stable — for NowBy David Smilde and Dimitris PantoulasMarch 5, 2013 Latin America’s Leftists Audition to Succeed ChávezBy […]

On Tuesday, Hamas re-elected Khaled Meshaal as its political leader, extending his nearly decade-long leadership of the Palestinian militant Islamist group. Hard-liners in the Gaza Strip, which Hamas controls, have been critical of Meshaal and his efforts to bridge divides with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who leads the rival Palestinian group Fatah. Meshaal had previously said he would step down, and there were also reports that Hamas members in Gaza might try to force him aside. But Hamas’ internal political decision-making committee, the Shura Council, gave him another term, reportedly at least in part because of international pressure, including […]

In mid-March, three suspected militants were killed by Russian forces in the North Caucasus, a region that has long been a site of Islamist and separatist violence, beginning with the Chechen wars in the 1990s. In an email interview, Domitilla Sagramoso, a lecturer in security and development at King’s College London who specializes in conflict, security and development in Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia, explained the roots of the ongoing violence in the region and the evolution of Russia’s response to it. WPR: What is the immediate background and current extent of the insurgency in Russia’s North Caucasus? Domitilla […]

Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan became acting president in February 2010 following the incapacitation of his predecessor Umaru Yar’Adua. Elected in his own right in April 2011, Jonathan now stands near the midpoint of his first full term in office. His People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which has won every election since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, dominates the executive and legislative branches of the federal government and governs 23 of Nigeria’s 36 states. The advantages of incumbency and party dominance will likely assure Jonathan another term when Nigeria votes again in 2015. Yet insecurity, corruption and stalled policy implementation have provoked […]

On March 24, Pakistan’s former president, Pervez Musharraf, who took power in a coup in 1999 and resigned nine years later to avoid impeachment, ended years of self-imposed exile and returned to Pakistan vowing to contest presidential and parliamentary elections set for May. In an email interview, Colin Cookman, a policy analyst at the Center for American Progress specializing in Pakistan and Afghanistan, discussed what’s at stake in the elections. WPR: What are Pakistan’s major political factions and parties as the country heads into the elections? Colin Cookman: Dozens of political parties and hundreds more independent candidates are likely to […]

Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai was in Qatar this weekend to talk with the emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, and other officials about establishing an office of the Afghan Taliban insurgents in Doha. Proposals for such an office, designed to create conditions favorable for peace talks, have been under discussion for more than a year. But Karzai is seeking further safeguards to prevent the Taliban from using the office as a propaganda front or mobilization center. In addition, Karzai has insisted that the insurgents must recognize his government, among other preconditions for entering talks. For their part, members of the […]