It wasn’t very long ago when American interest in the Middle East focused with piercing intensity on the minutest of developments in Iraq. Over time, however, the gradual drawdown of U.S. forces, the uprisings in the Middle East and public exhaustion with the draining American misadventure in Mesopotamia conspired to take Baghdad out of the headlines. That is about to change. The coming months will bring Iraq back to the foreground. A number of crucial events and opposing forces are now converging, and they will determine whether Iraq, the country Americans spent so much blood and treasure to turn into […]

Guatemala’s Election Dominated by Security Concerns

Former Guatemalan Army Gen. Otto Perez Molina has emerged as the victor in the first round of the country’s presidential election. He will now go into a November runoff election against business leader and populist Manuel Baldizon, who won 23 percent of the vote Sunday. But the fact that Perez carried 36 percent in the initial round may be a better indicator than any of how eager Guatemalan voters are to begin using the military to combat rampant drug crime in the country. “The No. 1 concern in public opinion going into this election is the security situation,” says Cynthia […]

Syrian Activists Not Interested in Arab Deal

Syrian activists say at least 11 people have have been killed in various cities on Tuesday. The government’s continued crackdown on protestors has been on the agenda at the Arab League summit in Cairo.

Necessary but not Sufficient: Institution-Building and a Palestinian State

In August 2009, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad pledged to “complete the process of building institutions of the independent State of Palestine in order to establish a de facto state apparatus within the next two years.” The Palestinian Authority (PA), he said, would do this “despite the hostile occupation regime.” Indeed, Fayyad argued that by focusing on building institutions, Palestinians would “expedite the end of the occupation,” because their state would “emerge as a fact that cannot be ignored.” Fayyad’s two-year deadline expired in August 2011. Is Palestine ready, in institutional terms, for statehood? The question may appear hypothetical because […]

Fresh Colombia Violence Puts Santos in Tight Spot

A recent uptick in attacks on Colombia’s energy infrastructure, along with a 25 percent increase in kidnappings, has prompted speculation about whether major security gains made in the country over the past decade may be deteriorating. While the current spate of violence pales in comparison to the bloodshed that burdened Colombia through the 1990s and early 2000s, according to Michael Shifter, who heads the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, the recent attacks could create serious political challenges for Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos. Shifter reminded Trend Lines on Thursday that upon succeeding Álvaro Uribe as president of Colombia last year, Santos […]

In two recently leaked voice recordings, former Turkish Chief of General Staff Gen. Isik Kosaner is heard commenting about the ongoing “Sledgehammer” case, in which several Turkish military officers have been accused of plotting a coup. On the tapes, Kosaner also bluntly questions the effectiveness of the Turkish armed forces in their fight against the separatist Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK), labeled as a terrorist group by Turkey, the European Union and the U.S. Critics of the military’s traditionally strong role in Turkish politics immediately highlighted the news, speculating on Kosaner’s integrity and mental health, the military’s alleged hidden political agenda […]

Riots, like those that wracked the U.K. last month, tend to be portrayed as either righteous rebellions of the oppressed or mere criminality. The truth is that riots are propelled by a complex mixture of political motivations and the enjoyment by everyday people of the power to loot and otherwise transgress without punishment. The spectacle of British police losing the tactical advantage to swarms of electronically networked rioters amid general government paralysis does not bode well for a future in which economic austerity collides with raw public anger. Politics is about power, and containment of the crowd is a core […]

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