Whether Russia in Ukraine or Iran in the Middle East, authoritarian regimes flexing their military muscles can generate a sense of irresistible momentum that fuels anxiety among more open societies. Yet if one looks at how both these regimes are coping with social change, what initially seems unstoppable begins to look less ominous.
The ICJ’s middle-ground provisional ruling on whether Israel may be committing genocide in Gaza was not surprising given the specific difficulties of proving genocide. Still, to point out that the ruling falls short of what either party might have wanted would be to miss its wider implications that go far beyond the Gaza conflict.
Russia’s role in allowing Azerbaijan to conduct its final invasion on Nagorno-Karabakh last year, despite its peacekeeping role there, has sparked a profound sense of betrayal in Armenia. That in turn has created an opportunity for the EU to forge stronger ties with Yerevan and reshape the geopolitical orientation of the South Caucasus.
Though North Korea’s nuclearization efforts have faded from the headlines, the country has continued to improve its capabilities and can now plausibly reach any location in the continental United States with a nuclear weapon. In the absence of a deal to curb its nuclear and missile programs, North Korea’s arsenal will only grow more lethal.
Is the United States’ era of global leadership over? From war to famine, the world is on fire and a lack of political will on the part of Washington is being blamed. But rather than demonstrating a lack of will, U.S. President Joe Biden can be seen as a savvy grand strategist who recognizes the new limits of U.S. power.
As part of his tour through four African countries this week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a point of stopping over in Cote d’Ivoire, a country with which both Washington and Paris are seeking to deepen security ties following the collapse of France’s diplomatic relations in other parts of the region.
France and India have for decades developed a strong partnership grounded in strategic affinities and a shared preference for a multipolar international order. Though the U.S. has tended to be rather suspicious of this relationship, it should reconsider its view, as it actually serves Washington’s broader interests.
Ecuador’s grave security crisis could prove pivotal for the future of the country’s democracy. Similar crises across Latin American have created the temptation to toss out democracy as the cost of regaining security, as has been on most prominent display in El Salvador. For Ecuador, the stakes for could not be higher.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has abandoned the country’s long-standing policy of seeking peaceful unification with the South. This substantial change in Pyongyang’s inter-Korean policy should not be regarded as mere bluster or rhetoric. It marks a significant and dangerous shift in North Korea’s posture toward the South.
Efforts to explain why relations between Russia and the EU collapsed over the past decade have taken a closer look at previously neglected historical factors. But one development that perhaps represented the first step toward the current crisis between Moscow and Europe is overlooked: the Moldova-Transnistria war over 30 years ago.
East Africa has long been a region of great geopolitical importance and, as a result, the object of fierce competition. Now, recent developments, including Sudan’s brutal civil war and Ethiopia’s port access deal with Somaliland, have shone a spotlight on the United Arab Emirates’ influential role in regional affairs.
At a time when the global order is in flux, it is notable that the drivers of many of the core security challenges in the world today are not, in fact, states. From Hamas to the Houthis movement, to Taiwan and Kosovo, the world is dotted by “quasi-” or “de facto” states. What does that mean for the role of the nation-state?
Given Taiwan’s pivotal position as a flashpoint in global security, most of the coverage of its recent presidential and legislative elections viewed them through the lens of its relations with China. The relationship matters to be sure, but the campaign was also driven by domestic concerns that didn’t make the international headlines.
Under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Cairo has been unable to do anything more than react to crises around Egypt’s borders. With concerns growing over Egypt’s own stability, that has created a vicious cycle, increasing the likelihood that the chaos around it further exacerbates Egypt’s own internal problems.
On Dec. 28, South Africa filed a claim with the International Court of Justice alleging that Israel’s actions in Gaza since Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7 amount to genocide against the Palestinian population. Both Israel and the U.S. have called the case a distraction. They’re right, but not for the reasons they claim.
Last week, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa formally declared that the country is in a state of “internal armed conflict” against criminal gangs. But Ecuador’s security crisis is not internal at all. Regional and global trends have directly contributed to causing it, and its impact also extends beyond the country’s borders.
Competition over maritime resources and territorial disputes over maritime borders highlight the tensions between national sovereignty and transnational challenges in the maritime domain. While often ignored in coverage of international affairs, it features prominently in bilateral, regional and multilateral diplomacy.