Defense & Security Archive

Editor’s Note: Every Friday, Andrew Green curates the top news and analysis from and about the African continent. South Sudan finally has a transitional government, though the country’s citizens and neighboring leaders are watching anxiously to see if this coalition will hold together longer than a previous attempt, which collapsed after only three months. President Salva Kiir swore in opposition leader Riek Machar as his first deputy last weekend, just ahead of a twice-delayed deadline to form a unity government. Kiir also installed three additional vice presidents—two from the government and one from the opposition; a fifth, drawn from another […]

If recent history is any guide, the United States is less than a year away from a paralyzing national security crisis. Whether President Donald Trump or his Democratic challenger wins in November, revelations that Russia is once again interfering in the 2020 presidential election all but guarantee that the legitimacy of the electoral results will be called into question, potentially undermining the country’s very political stability. One way to guard against that looming threat is for media outlets, which frame how most Americans understand foreign meddling, to make a major course correction in how they cover and respond to Russia’s […]

In what has been called a “protection racket” and a “blatant shakedown,” President Donald Trump is again pressuring South Korea to increase its contribution to the costs of maintaining U.S. military bases in the country. The mafia-esque terminology employed by commentators seems apt given Trump’s shocking initial demand for a fivefold increase in Seoul’s share of American basing costs, from around $900 million per year to nearly $5 billion. While U.S. negotiators have reportedly climbed down from that position, the two sides have yet to find common ground after six rounds of negotiations, heightening fears of a lasting standoff that […]

Last November, a gunfight at a security checkpoint along Tajikistan’s border with Uzbekistan left 15 masked assailants and five Tajik security forces dead—at least according to the government’s official account. The Tajik authorities immediately blamed the Islamic State for the attack, which it said originated from Afghanistan. Some journalists with longtime experience in the region remained cautious and skeptical. But other outlets and news agencies with far bigger readerships uncritically relayed the government’s narrative, while adding wildly exaggerated estimates of the number of Central Asians fighting with the Islamic State in Afghanistan. Only later, after the international media had turned […]

At a recent summit meeting in the Black Sea resort town of Sochi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian ally, Alexander Lukashenko, did their best to put on a public show of comity. They even enjoyed a friendly game of hockey during a break from meetings. But despite the public proclamations of “brotherly” ties, the relationship between Russia and Belarus is much more nuanced—and much more troubled—than that. Tensions have been especially high in recent months, as Putin pushes for greater integration between the two countries, raising fears that he could try to annex Belarus outright. Lukashenko has staunchly […]

In this week’s editors’ discussion on Trend Lines, WPR’s Judah Grunstein and Freddy Deknatel talk about U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to India, and why his camaraderie with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not been enough to overcome tensions between the world’s two biggest democracies. They also discuss the historical roots of India’s reluctance to join a U.S.-led coalition to contain China, even as defense cooperation between New Delhi and Washington has expanded over the past decade. If you like what you hear on Trend Lines and what you’ve read on WPR, you can sign up for our […]

If there is one good foreign policy decision Congress has made over any other in the past 20 years, it is arguably its investment in building up the U.S. Africa Command, or AFRICOM. All but shutting down AFRICOM, which the Trump administration is considering, would be one of the worst decisions it could make this year, although it’s a crowded field. Which is why it was heartening when reports surfaced this week that those mooted Pentagon plans are meeting with strong headwinds in Congress. As always with the Trump White House, it’s anyone’s guess whether logic will ultimately prevail or […]

Last week, after hinting at it for some time, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced he would terminate a key military pact with the United States. The Visiting Forces Agreement, in place for two decades, allows Washington to keep rotations of American soldiers in the Philippines. As Richard Heydarian has noted, the deal also provides a legal basis for the numerous annual joint military exercises between U.S. and Philippines forces. Tearing it up is the biggest break in bilateral relations at least since Manila forced Washington to give up its Philippine bases in 1991 and 1992. Some analysts, like Heydarian, go […]

Is Washington ready to embrace restraint as the guiding principle of U.S. foreign policy? Several recent developments suggest that at least when it comes to some prominent debates over national security, the answer is a guarded yes. Last week, the Senate passed a bipartisan war powers resolution prohibiting the White House from going to war with Iran without congressional approval. The White House also reportedly signed off on a tentative deal with the Taliban last week to begin ending U.S. military involvement in the war in Afghanistan. Advocates of restraint should still hold off on any victory laps just yet. […]

By all accounts, the U.S. and the Taliban are poised to sign the initial stage of a peace deal in Afghanistan, and it may only be a matter of weeks before President Donald Trump takes the first serious step toward ending America’s longest war. But can a White House this mercurial really usher in a sustainable political settlement in Afghanistan? The short answer is no. Under the right circumstances, however, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his administration may be able to get the job done. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed that Trump has signaled his approval for […]

Editor’s Note: Every Friday, Andrew Green curates the top news and analysis from and about the African continent. Sudan’s transitional government appears prepared to hand former President Omar al-Bashir over to the International Criminal Court to be tried for war crimes and genocide allegedly committed during his regime’s long, scorched-earth campaign in the country’s Darfur region. The decision is reportedly part of a potential peace agreement with rebel groups still operating in Darfur. It could be an unexpected boon for the beleaguered ICC, but only if the military members of the transitional government in Khartoum don’t renege on the deal. […]

Decades of technological advances have made drones readily available not only to governments, but to non-state groups, commercial actors and hobbyists as well, for everything from military strikes to package deliveries. The United States last month used an MQ-9 Reaper drone to assassinate Iran’s top military commander, Qassem Soleimani. In September, an attack on Saudi oil facilities utilizing drones and cruise missiles temporarily cut Saudi oil production in half. Even smaller, unarmed drones can cause massive disruptions. In December 2018, London’s Gatwick Airport, the second-busiest in Britain, shut down for 36 hours after a drone was spotted nearby, causing hundreds […]

Last Sunday, as the red carpet arrivals began at the Oscars, a scene out of a Hollywood thriller unfolded far away in the capital of El Salvador. Dozens of police officers and soldiers in full battlefield regalia, armed with assault weapons, burst into the country’s Legislative Assembly. Stunned legislators watched as President Nayib Bukele marched in and sat in the chair of the president of the assembly. “Now,” he declared, “I think it’s very clear who has control of the situation.” Outside the legislature, Bukele’s followers, summoned by their young, charismatic leader, were smashing pinatas meant to look like his […]

One of the most contentious elements of the U.S.-China relationship today is over the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei and its outsized role in the development of next-generation 5G telecommunications infrastructure around the world. The Trump administration argues that Huawei’s close ties to the Chinese government make it a national security risk. Last summer, the Commerce Department added Huawei to a blacklist that prevents American companies from doing business with it, although it has subsequently granted some limited reprieves. U.S. officials have urged other countries to avoid Huawei as well, but in a blow to those efforts, the United Kingdom recently […]

In a blatant display of disregard for the country’s democratic institutions, President Nayib Bukele ordered the military to briefly occupy El Salvador’s legislature last weekend. He was apparently irritated with the slow pace of legislative negotiations over his proposal for a $109 million loan from a regional development bank to pay for new military equipment, as part of a broader crime bill. Bukele’s supporters applauded the show of force, but it provoked an outcry from critics concerned about the 38-year-old president’s disdain for the rule of law and his willingness to politicize the military. Bukele argues that the loan from […]

The Trump administration provoked another international outcry when it announced late last month that it was adding six new countries to its list of nations that face broad travel restrictions to the United States: Eritrea, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Sudan and Tanzania. The expansion of the travel ban, which President Donald Trump first issued as an executive order just days after his inauguration in January 2017, will take effect on Feb. 22. The inclusion of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy, generated immediate outrage among many observers. But the reaction from the Nigerian government was more muted than […]

A robust economy, the turmoil of the Iowa caucuses and President Donald Trump’s strong poll numbers in the wake of his acquittal in his impeachment trial have lengthened the odds than any Democratic rival will beat him at the ballot box in November. Yet should one of them pull off this audacious feat, the new president will face another colossal challenge: reviving the liberal international order that Trump has done so much to disparage and dismantle. How will he or she do that? Start by reconsolidating the West, giving globalization a human face and bolstering support for democracy and human […]