Defense & Security Archive

On Oct. 18, the foreign ministers of Niger and Nigeria signed a defense pact in Niger’s capital, Niamey, establishing joint border patrols along their 930-mile border. The pact also envisions infrastructure projects, including road construction and potential rail links to connect the two countries, as well as renewed efforts to re-demarcate the border. President Mahamadou Issoufou of Niger announced the deal in a French-language Twitter post on Oct. 24, declaring that, from now on, “whoever attacks Niger, attacks Nigeria.” In the communiqué launching the pact, both countries’ heads of state, Issoufou and Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, expressed their concern about […]

Rarely a week passes without a grim new article, op-ed or newspaper story warning us that al-Qaida is mounting a comeback. Retired U.S. Army Gen. Jack Keane, for instance, recently declared that al-Qaida is “seeking to take advantage of the opportunities posed by revolutionary change throughout the Middle East” and is “on the rise.” Writing for the Wall Street Journal, the RAND Corporation’s Seth Jones argued that, with the Obama administration turning its attention to the Asia-Pacific region, al-Qaida is pushing into the political vacuum created by the Arab Spring and “riding a resurgent wave as its affiliates engage in […]

As China’s once-in-a-decade political transition nears, the announcement this week of the promotions of five generals has brought the parallel transition in China’s military leadership into focus. The appointees are widely expected to become members of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the ultimate source of military authority in the country, according to the New York Times. Two experts who spoke with Trend Lines said these individuals are a piece of the larger puzzle of China’s military modernization. “These individuals are going to bring a worldview, a set of experiences, that will shape how China becomes a regional and global military,” […]

On Monday, during the final presidential debate, President Barack Obama proclaimed that his defense budgets were “driven by strategy. [They’re] not driven by politics.” In theory, Obama is correct. Defense budgeting is supposed to be a rational exercise that assesses threats and needs, and then fills in the gaps. As Sean Sullivan, a leading expert on defense resource allocation issues at the Naval War College, told me in a conversation on the subject, “Defense planning processes are specifically designed to use strategy as guidance for force programming and budget decisions, thereby linking the ends with the means.” In practice, however, […]

Since it was founded in 1982, in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution and in reaction to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, Hezbollah has been many things: a terrorist group, a sectarian militia and, most recently, a legitimate political actor in Lebanon. Today, the so-called Party of God faces challenges on all sides. Its archenemy and raison d’être, Israel, is as strong as ever; its Syrian and Iranian patrons are struggling; and a regional Sunni ascendancy threatens its regional popularity and domestic legitimacy. At near-peak strength just a few years ago, Hezbollah now finds itself in dangerously uncertain waters. Hezbollah has […]

A splinter group of Darfur’s rebel Justice and Equality Movement announced this week that it would implement a cease-fire and enter into talks with the Sudanese government, scheduled to be held in Doha. In an email interview, Eric Reeves, a professor at Smith College and the author of “Compromising with Evil: An Archival History of Greater Sudan, 2007-2012,” reviewed the current state of violence and humanitarian efforts in Darfur. WPR: What is the current state of hostilities — what groups are engaged, and how extensive is the current level of violence? Eric Reeves: Violence is pervasive in Darfur, although it […]

A car bomb killed at least eight people Friday in Beirut, Lebanon, including Wissam al-Hassan, the country’s head of police intelligence and one of the more powerful opponents of Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs. Hassan’s assassination threatens to further polarize a country where tensions were already running high due to the civil war next door. Julien Barnes-Dacey, a senior policy fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Trend Lines that while the Syrian conflict is clearly exacerbating divisions within Lebanon, until now, the country has shown a greater degree of […]

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney recently released a list of several hundred retired generals and admirals who have joined the “Romney for President Military Advisory Council.” There is nothing unusual about such a list. Many presidential candidates roll out endorsements from high-profile former officers to demonstrate that as commander-in-chief, they would have the support of the military’s senior leaders. What did raise some eyebrows was the inclusion on Romney’s list of retired Army Gen. Tommy Franks. Writing for Mother Jones, Adam Weinstein said, “If you’re a presidential candidate looking to establish your national security cred with a war-weary American public, […]

In late-September, Sen. Joe Lieberman detailed a significant and sustained Iranian attack on U.S. banks in retaliation for the Stuxnet virus, which the U.S. all but admitted had been used to attack Iran’s nuclear program. In October, Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, spoke circumspectly about a new cyberthreat from an “unusual source.” Then, on Oct. 11, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned of America’s unpreparedness for a major cyberattack, raising the specter of a cyber Pearl Harbor. The message was clear: The United States is engaged in a cyber conflict. Alarmingly, however, the […]

Last week, the naval forces of Turkey and Egypt completed joint military exercises in the Mediterranean Sea, the latest sign of warming ties between the two former rivals, in what the New York Times said could be “a significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East.” Egypt is looking to Turkey as a guide after emerging from authoritarian rule and economic devastation, while Turkey is working to expand its influence in the region after years of pushing for closer ties with Europe. But the big question now, according to Paul J. Sullivan, a Middle East security expert at Georgetown University and […]

In George Lucas’ dystopian 1971 film, “THX-1138,” the protagonist is pursued by police after attempting to escape from a futuristic totalitarian city-state. However, the city has only budgeted a certain amount to cover the costs of the pursuit. In the penultimate scene, as the officers are about to recapture the renegade, the comptroller’s office informs them that because of cost overruns, the chase is to be terminated. “Economics make it necessary to terminate any operation which exceeds five percent of its primary budget,” the officers are told. With the specter of sequestration — which on Jan. 1, 2013, is set […]

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta’s recent address to the Business Executives for National Security conference in New York revisited an old metaphor of the cybersecurity game: a Pearl Harbor-esque surprise attack on the nation’s computer systems. Though the fears that Panetta invoked of a massive cyber attack on the United States may be overblown, there are valid reasons for concern. As Panetta highlighted, foreign powers are increasingly going on the offensive in cyberspace, with two of the world’s most important industries, energy and banking, recently coming under assault. His speech signals that, for the Department of Defense, cyberattacks have likely […]

KAMPALA, Uganda — Following months of heated exchanges between international observers and Rwandan officials, a United Nations investigative body leveled its most detailed and controversial accusations over alleged Rwandan support for the Congolese M23 rebels in a 44-page report leaked late Tuesday. The document claims that Rwandan Defense Minister Gen. James Kabarebe exercises direct command over the rebel group. Formerly integrated into the Congolese army, M23 launched a mutiny in April, carving a significant swathe of territory out of the volatile, crisis-prone eastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo ever since. The Ugandan government is also implicated in […]

On Tuesday, the British government announced that it would not extradite British hacker Gary McKinnon to the United States, marking the first time an extradition has been halted under the 2003 Extradition Act between the U.S. and the United Kingdom. McKinnon, who is accused of serious crimes including hacking American military databases, has fought extradition for the past 10 years. But in light of new evidence about his health, British Home Secretary Theresa May, the government’s top authority on domestic affairs, cited McKinnon’s human rights as her main consideration. Extraditing McKinnon would put him at high risk of suicide, she […]

The U.S. and Peru are renegotiating their long-standing defense cooperation treaty, as announced by the countries’ defense chiefs in a joint press conference in Lima earlier this month. In an email interview, Louis Goodman, the dean emeritus of the American University School of International Service, discussed U.S.-Peru defense cooperation. WPR: What is the extent of present-day defense cooperation between the U.S. and Peru? Louis Goodman: The United States and Peru have strong cooperative relations, which have been enhanced in recent years. Signatories of the 1947 hemisphere-wide Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, which commits parties to mutual defense, the two nations […]

With the endgame near for large-scale U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan, Americans have already begun to debate the broader implications of the conflict. Many have painted it as a failure, even a strategic fiasco. But it is not. Given the dynamics of the conflict and its wider strategic context, Afghanistan should be considered a win, albeit one that came at a much greater cost than was necessary. In the emotional turmoil following the Sept. 11 attacks, there was little consideration of the ultimate strategic goals of a U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan. The focus was instead on destroying al-Qaida and […]

Russia announced last week that it would cease cooperation with the U.S. under the highly successful Nunn-Lugar nuclear security program. In an email interview, Brian Finlay, a senior associate and director of the Managing Across Boundaries program at the Stimson Center, discussed Russia’s decision to withdraw from the program. WPR: Why is Russia withdrawing from the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program? Brian Finlay: In the immediate wake of the Cold War, dire financial need and insecurity across the Russian Federation mandated cooperation with the United States to protect the vast stockpile of weapons of mass destruction in the former Soviet […]