When news of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner Group’s march to Moscow broke, there was palpable shock among EU and U.S. officials. The extent to which Western governments were blindsided by a crisis that had been building for months was a reminder of how institutions in the U.K., EU and U.S. struggle to manage geopolitical risk.
The true danger for NATO is not the emergence of European defense capacity, but the lack of it. A rebalanced alliance will require a new paradigm based on closer NATO-EU cooperation with a stronger European pillar within NATO. That will only happen if Europe adopts, and the U.S. supports, a more ambitious European defense agenda.
When Mali demanded last month that the U.N. withdraw peacekeepers from its territory “without delay,” it sent a chill through diplomats in New York. Many observers have speculated over whether Mali’s move could presage the end of other U.N. missions in Africa, dealing a blow to the institution’s contribution to security there.
When Myanmar’s junta responded to peaceful demonstrations against their 2021 coup with a bloody crackdown, the opposition turned to armed resistance. In recent months, the conflict has been escalating, and the ruthlessness of Myanmar’s military has greatly intensified. Still mostly below the world’s radar, Myanmar’s civil war is raging.
In mid-June, attackers allegedly belonging to the Allied Democratic Forces, or ADF, murdered 42 people, including 37 students, at a school on the border with Congo. The attack has raised complex questions about the assailants’ goals, as well as the domestic implications of Uganda’s cross-border security operations in eastern Congo.