Defense & Security Archive

Perhaps it is time to start taking Hamid Karzai at his word. Every time the Afghan president criticizes the United States or constrains the operations of foreign forces in Afghanistan, U.S. officials deploy the gamut of explanations to downplay his behavior. These have ranged from the tactical (he’s trying to build up his nationalist credentials among the populace), to the pharmacological (he’s “off his meds”). Karzai’s latest bombshell, delivered during Chuck Hagel’s inaugural visit to Afghanistan as the new U.S. secretary of defense, was to suggest that the United States is colluding with the Taliban in attacks throughout the country […]

The month-long crisis in Sabah, which has seen an incursion of rebel fighters from the Philippine island of Sulu into Malaysia’s northern-most state on the island of Borneo, is a stark reminder that Southeast Asia remains engulfed in unresolved territorial disputes and conflicts. Malaysia has been deeply involved in several of these conflicts as both a stakeholder and a mediator. The Sabah crisis now presents Malaysia with a thorny domestic security challenge that also has implications for its regional role. As a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Malaysia has so far subscribed actively to the ASEAN […]

Mexican drug cartels have made inroads in Guatemala, a fact highlighted last month by initial reports, ultimately false, that one of Mexico’s most wanted drug traffickers had been killed there. In an email interview, Christine Zaino, program associate in the Latin America program at the Wilson Center, and Cynthia Arnson, director of the Latin America program, discussed Guatemala’s role in the drug trade and recent security reforms. WPR: How has Guatemala’s security situation changed since Otto Pérez Molina became president? Christine Zaino and Cynthia Arnson: Pérez Molina’s first year as president has shown mixed results; the country continues to struggle […]

In the face of persistent violence in Mexico, citizens are increasingly forming vigilante groups they say are for self-defense. Estimates vary on how widespread the groups are; one recent report said such self-defense groups were active in 68 municipalities in 13 Mexican states. Adam Isacson, senior associate for regional security policy at the Washington Office on Latin America, told Trend Lines, “Basically, the police have broken down in a lot of these municipalities, and organized crime has moved in.” Yet while the groups claim to fight violence and extortion where the Mexican government can’t or won’t, there are concerns that […]

Today, North Korea is the most dangerous country on earth and the greatest threat to U.S. security. For years, the bizarre regime in Pyongyang has issued an unending stream of claims that a U.S. and South Korean invasion is imminent, while declaring that it will defeat this offensive just as — according to official propaganda — it overcame the unprovoked American attack in 1950. Often the press releases from the official North Korean news agency are absurdly funny, and American policymakers tend to ignore them as a result. Continuing to do so, though, could be dangerous as events and rhetoric […]

A key component of Iran’s Middle East policy is the deployment of unconventional actors to achieve political ends. Tehran has seen successes in this regard: Its client Hezbollah has become a major political party and militia in Lebanon, and, through the use of other such groups, Iran managed to increase its influence in Baghdad while diminishing that of the United States during the American war in Iraq. But Iran has now taken on considerable risk by intervening in a similar fashion in the Syrian conflict, where its mission is fundamentally different than it was in Lebanon or Iraq. In Syria, […]

Given domestic economic weaknesses, security competition with India and an antagonistic relationship with Afghanistan, Pakistan has traditionally sought external alliances with strong powers and pursued an offensive security policy. Nevertheless, there has been a dawning realization in Islamabad that a new approach is necessary, and as a result, Pakistan’s foreign and defense policies are undergoing important transformations, including a normalization of relations with neighbors and a renewed focus on domestic security threats. With a low growth rate, high inflation, budget deficits and unsustainable debt, economic weakness is the single biggest challenge for Pakistan. A major energy shortage, which both results […]

On Wednesday, Syrian rebels seized 21 Filipino members of a United Nations peacekeeping mission from a disputed demilitarized buffer zone between Israel and Syria that has been monitored by U.N. forces since 1974. The border zone in the Golan Heights had been largely unaffected by Syria’s uprising until now, and the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) has not experienced a similar incident in the decades since it was formed. The group claiming responsibility for the kidnapping said the peacekeepers would not be released until the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad withdrew from a nearby village where clashes occurred over […]

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series on the outlook for Mali after the initial phase of the military intervention. Part I looked at the military challenges ahead. Part II examines the political and economic challenges ahead. Much of the domestic and international attention on Mali is focused on the fierce fighting going on in the north between French and Chadian troops and elements of the Islamist militant groups the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa and al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb. But both the Malian government and the international community would do well to […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series on the outlook for Mali after the initial phase of the military intervention. Part I looks at the military challenges ahead. Part II will examine the political and economic challenges ahead. The initial phase of the French-led military intervention in Mali is over. The various fundamentalist groups that recently menaced the capital have been chased out of all major cities, and operations are now in full swing in the more-remote regions in the north where the militants have fled. But recent events have made clear that the conflict in Mali […]

Last week French President Francois Hollande announced that Operation Serval in Mali has entered its final phase and hinted that the withdrawal of French troops from the country would begin within a matter of weeks. The French government has always maintained that it does not intend to keep its forces in the region for the long haul, and wants to hand over operations to an African-led force as soon as the situation in Mali is stable. Emphasis will now gradually move to diplomatic discussions at the U.N. for a resolution mandating a peacekeeping force, and the level of media attention […]

Since World War II, Americans have obsessively mined their armed conflicts for “lessons.” Every war spawns books, workshops and conferences. The U.S. military has even institutionalized the “lessons learned” process, creating organizations like the Army’s Center for Lessons Learned at Fort Leavenworth, Kanas, which can turn information from the field into officially sanctioned lessons in short order. Within the policy community, where there are no generals and admirals to decide which lessons are worth learning and which are not, it normally takes a few years to reach agreement on the lessons of a given conflict — time allows perspective and […]

A bomb blast in a Shiite district of Karachi, Pakistan, killed at least 45 people Sunday in the latest example of escalating sectarian and ethnic violence in the country. Hassan Abbas, a former Pakistani government official who is now an academic and a senior adviser to the Asia Society, told Trend Lines that relations between South Asia’s Sunni and Shiite Muslim communities have historically been cordial, but that the recent uptick in sectarian attacks is linked to growing tension and violence in the region more generally. “Religious bigotry, ignorance, ethnic tensions and regional tensions are driving this trend,” Abbas said […]

CARACAS, Venezuela — Despite an increase in violence and kidnappings in recent weeks, the latest round of peace talks between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the Colombian government kicked off on Feb. 18 with a rare display of common ground when both sides wished an ailing Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez a speedy recovery. Their sympathies provide a subtle reminder of the integral role the 58-year-old firebrand has played in the peace process, even if he is now confined to a hospital bed. While Venezuelan governments have been involved in seeking a solution to the Colombian conflict in […]

At last month’s NATO defense ministerial meeting, one of the main topics of discussion concerned how many coalition forces will remain in Afghanistan beyond 2014, as well as what their mission will be and how rapidly to withdraw forces that will be departing. After almost 12 years of U.S. and coalition combat operations, the durability of recent gains remains under question as NATO withdraws its forces and reduces its other military support to the Afghan government, making it essential that the alliance plan carefully for drawing down its operations in the country. The numbers under consideration at February’s meeting assumed […]

At a debate Thursday among analysts and advocates on whether the U.S. should remain in Afghanistan past 2014, when the NATO combat mission there is scheduled to end, the four panelists differed mostly on the degree of U.S. presence that would be required past that date. None advocated for a full withdrawal. Frederick W. Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute and a prominent civilian adviser to the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan, argued that the U.S. should remain in Afghanistan because “there continue to be people in Afghanistan . . . who wake up […]