Defense & Security Archive

With increasing tensions on display in the East and South China Sea, much attention has been given to the growing military capabilities of the People’s Republic of China. The attention is understandable: China recently commissioned its first aircraft carrier and is developing anti-ship ballistic missiles dubbed “carrier-killers.” But while China’s military build-up is in many ways being geared toward challenging America, no matter how unlikely a conflict between the two powers might be, an assessment of Chinese power must also gauge the prowess of Chinese forces against other possible challengers, especially the regional armed forces it could face in combat. […]

Last month, I had the opportunity to spend a week in Uzbekistan meeting with government officials, think tank researchers, university faculty and other members of the country’s national security community. We shared frank assessments on Uzbekistan’s relations with Russia, China, Afghanistan and other neighboring countries, as well as with the United States. Judging by the size of its population and the strength of its military, Uzbekistan is potentially the most powerful of the five Central Asian countries. In addition, its pivotal location bordering all the other Central Asian countries as well as Afghanistan give Uzbekistan great geopolitical and economic importance […]

In a decision that came as a surprise to most, the European Union was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last week. The announcement quickly shifted attention from a development that had dominated the European news just days before: the failed merger between defense giants EADS and BAE, which could also be considered the death knell of strategic Europe. In light of this missed opportunity for Europe to rise to a global defense role, some observers had only cynical remarks for the prestigious peace award. The failed EADS-BAE merger marks the second unsuccessful effort since 1997 to move the European defense […]

The debate over U.S. drone strikes against militants in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) has risen in intensity over the past few weeks, following a highly critical report on the strikes’ impact on the region’s civilian population as well as last week’s anti-drone “peace march” to the FATA. However, the focus on drones is unhelpful and legitimizes a narrative that mischaracterizes the real problems in Pakistan. The use of drones is a reaction to militancy that is the product of historical and systemic failures in governance in Pakistan. By making drones the focus of attention, Pakistani institutions can evade […]

At the European Union-China Summit in Brussels last month, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao urged EU leaders to end the EU embargo on arms sales to China. In an email interview, Richard Bitzinger, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, discussed the EU arms ban on China. WPR: How is the ban currently affecting relations between the EU and China? Richard Bitzinger: Since being enacted in 1989, the ban has stood as an irritant to EU-China relations, but it has not harmed the relationship much, either when it comes to […]

ABIDJAN, Côte d’Ivoire — Last week, five suspects appeared at Abidjan’s Palace of Justice for the opening of the first trial related to Côte d’Ivoire’s recent bout of postelection violence. The conflict, which began after former President Laurent Gbagbo refused to step down despite losing the November 2010 election to current President Alassane Ouattara, claimed at least 3,000 lives and displaced hundreds of thousands. Eighteen months after the power struggle ended with Gbagbo’s arrest in April 2011, persistent political divisions have largely thwarted efforts at national reconciliation. The beginning of the justice process is seen as a potential catalyst for […]

Over the weekend, the Philippine government announced that it had reached a framework agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front to end the separatist insurgency the rebel group has waged for decades in the southern Philippines. As reported by the New York Times, Philippine President Benigno S. Aquino III said the framework agreement “paves the way” for peace and represents a major step toward ending the conflict in Mindanao, a predominantly Muslim island in the only predominantly Christian country in Asia. In an email interview with Trend Lines, Steven Rood, the Asia Foundation’s country representative in the Philippines and an […]

As the civil war in Syria becomes more acute, the United States must reassess its strategy toward that key Middle Eastern state, in particular, its stance on the role that Saudi Arabia has been playing in the Syrian conflict. Continued Saudi influence in Syria will only further destabilize the situation on the ground, undermine U.S. interests in the region and dim the prospects for a future democratic Syria. In the wake of the Bush administration’s interventions in Afghanistan and, more disastrously, in Iraq, the Obama administration has been circumspect in its involvement in the Middle East. It has lent rhetorical […]

AL BAB, Syria — There is clearly something improvised about the courtroom scene: The prison guard wears civilian clothes and holds an assault rifle. He and a prisoner pose with a wide grin for a visiting photographer. The court sits in a simple office room, in a building whose courtyard has been partially damaged by bombardment. Yet this is very much government in action. With a 48-member council, a “council manager” (elected for a one-month term by council vote) and a criminal court, civic government is reasserting itself in this northern Syrian city of about 180,000 people after rebel fighters […]

Recently, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey released a document entitled, “Capstone Concept for Joint Operations: Joint Force 2020,” (.pdf) known by its milspeak acronym CCJO. At first glance, this might not seem noteworthy. After all, the U.S. military churns out concepts and doctrine on a regular basis, most of which only interest the military itself, the defense industry and perhaps security geeks. But the new CCJO is different. American security strategy and the U.S. military are undergoing a major transition, and this document provides an important window into what the armed forces expect to do […]

The International Crisis Group (ICG) issued a report yesterday titled, “Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition.” Although the report focuses on the political problems that Afghanistan faces, the country’s security, economic and diplomatic challenges are perhaps even more serious. According to the ICG, “Afghanistan is hurtling toward a devastating political crisis as the government prepares to take full control of security in 2014.” The group’s senior Afghanistan analyst, Candace Rondeaux, details how the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) are “overwhelmed and underprepared for the transition,” even as Afghan President Hamid Karzai “seems more interested in perpetuating his […]

A day after a deadly mortar attack from Syria killed five civilians in the Turkish border town of Akcakale, the Turkish Parliament on Thursday authorized further military action against Syria, with a measure allowing for crossborder raids. Media coverage of the motion, which authorizes strikes on Syrian targets, has warned that Turkish military involvement could turn this civil war into a regional conflict that would inevitably draw in the international community. But while today marks the second day of Turkish shelling within Syria, Turkish government officials have insisted that the new legislation is not a mandate for war, but rather […]

With global attention fixated on Iran’s nuclear program, an equally significant development for Iran’s strategic outlook is being overlooked. The Shiite Crescent that began to take shape in the wake of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq has effectively receded. Regardless of the outcome of the nuclear issue, Iran poses a much smaller threat to the region than it did just a few short years ago. A number of events have converged to put Iran back in the box it now finds itself in. The most obvious and consequential of these are the onset of the Arab Spring and the […]

The global landscape has been scarred for decades by conflicts that defy both the passage of time and the efforts of armies and diplomats — conflicts that at times seem so intractable as to appear impossible to solve. That is why it’s worth pausing to take note of a momentous, in fact, astonishing, development that has taken place in recent months: Three of the world’s most durable, deadly and stubborn conflicts appear to be coming to an end. The progress in resolving the decades-old conflicts in Somalia, Sudan and Myanmar will undoubtedly give rise to countless claims of credit. These […]

No bilateral relationship is likely to have a more significant impact on U.S. security than America’s relationship with China. How relations between Washington and Beijing will evolve as China becomes increasingly powerful and assertive remains uncertain. Some U.S. political leaders and policy experts believe that if the United States actively attempts to contain or limit China’s rise, it will stoke antagonism that could be avoided with a more adept strategy and conciliatory approach. The goal, this group believes, should be to allow China to assume a leading role in the existing political and security system to discourage Beijing from challenging […]

When crowds of protesters from Tunis to Cairo ignited what would become the Arab Spring in January 2011, it caught the government of then-French President Nicolas Sarkozy off guard. François Hollande, already campaigning to replace Sarkozy as president, saw an opening in Sarkozy’s initial hesitation and quickly promised to distinguish himself from his opponent’s “silence,” “incoherence” and “contradictory” diplomacy to restore French influence in the region. The demonstrations and uprisings in the Arab world allowed Hollande to draw attention away from the global financial crisis, where Sarkozy had staked his electoral argument for continuity, and toward North Africa, where France […]

The recent capture of several high-profile drug cartel capos has yet again propelled Mexico’s security situation into the spotlight. With last week’s arrest of important Zeta leader Ivan Velazquez Caballero, known as “Z-50” or “El Taliban,” the administration of President Felipe Calderón can now claim to have put 24 of the 37 most wanted drug cartel capos behind bars. While the reality of Mexico’s cartel-related violence is often shocking, much of the press coverage is more fiction than fact. In particular, three recurrent misconceptions surrounding Mexico’s security situation and drug cartels plague press coverage outside of Mexico and skew policymaking […]