Defense & Security Archive

Counterinsurgency, commonly referred to by its military acronym, “COIN,” essentially boils down to armed nation-building — a deliberate process of empowering people and weakening guerrillas until a state-friendly balance emerges. By contrast, counterterrorism seeks the tactical annihilation of the enemy. President Barack Obama’s new Afghanistan and Pakistan strategy is an effort to do both, promising to dismantle and disrupt al-Qaida while leaving the expensive and time-consuming job of definitively defeating it to Islamabad and Kabul. Call it COIN-lite. Can such an approach work? For now, yes. But if we extend the time horizon to 5-10 years from now, the outlook […]

Throughout history, the most transparent and blunt expression of international power has involved the projection of military force. Over the years, other forms of power have gained importance, with the concept of “soft power” — or the ability to peacefully persuade and attract other nations to acquiesce to a country’s will — recently gaining prominence as an alternative to traditional “hard power.” But for countries without the luxury of the large military budgets that fuel hard power or the massive cultural and economic assets that underpin soft power, a third way has emerged as a path to global influence. Call […]

TOKYO — Asia may already have an alphabet soup of regional economic and security arrangements, but Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd seems to believe there is room for at least one more. At a gathering of regional ministers, media and think tanks, Rudd argued that the region risked drifting in the face of challenges ahead. “We need to plan — we need to plan with each other, rather than against each other, as has often been the custom in times past,” he said, addressing a two-day conference, “Asia Pacific: A Community for the 21st Century,” held in Sydney beginning last […]

When President Barack Obama accepts his Nobel Peace Prize this week in Oslo, it will likely amplify the grumbling of those who think he is being rewarded for circumscribing American power. Obama’s diplomatic efforts to date have elicited complaints that he is “starry eyed” and “weak,” too solicitous of foreign leaders, and even “accommodating” of America’s enemies. These criticisms miss the point. Barack Obama isn’t weak. He just helms a superpower whose power and influence is on the wane. Even as it remains the most powerful nation in the world, the United States is becoming, as the Bush-era National Intelligence […]

A fanatical rebel group formed in northern Uganda in the 1980s has spread to become what one U.S. general labeled a “transnational” threat, prompting the U.S. and various East African nations to work together to defeat the group. The international cooperation is the fruit of years of delicate planning by U.S. officials. The Lord’s Resistance Army, founded by Ugandan Joseph Kuny in 1986, aims to establish a Christian theocratic government in East Africa. But the group’s brutal methods — torture, abduction and rape — belie its religious roots. From Uganda, the LRA spread into neighboring Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo […]

On the first anniversary of the Mumbai attacks, many observers discussed the implications of the events that took place last Nov. 26. But few have commented on the implications of what did not take place: New Delhi did not mobilize its armed forces. It did not retaliate against terrorist safe havens, nor did it go to war with the country — Pakistan — where they were located. Rather, it limited its response to calling upon its neighbor to shut down the terrorist cells and extradite the masterminds and abettors of the Mumbai attackers. Islamabad responded half-heartedly. It failed to bring […]

Iran has long been considered one of India’s key allies in the Muslim world. But relations between the two countries have been adrift since India voted against Iran at the IAEA, in 2005 and 2006. Taken aback by India’s position, the Islamic republic responded by blocking already contracted shipments of liquid natural gas (LNG) on the grounds that the price needed to be renegotiated. The move effectively downgraded the Indo-Iranian energy relationship, with Iran subsequently making noises about building a gas pipeline to China, even as Saudi Arabia’s importance as an energy supplier to India continues to grow. However, the […]

The current annual summit between the governments of India and Russia, scheduled to last from Dec. 6-8, testifies to the continuing shared interests between both countries. Russian and Indian policymakers still pursue many common objectives while having few divergent ones. Yet, ongoing improvements in India’s relations with Western countries, especially the United States, present challenges to Russian policymakers as they strive to maintain Russia’s position as India’s most important strategic partner. A few days before arriving in Moscow, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh gave a lengthy interview with Russian media outlets in which he lavished praise on Russia. Calling their […]

“We must make sure that the deployment of our troops is not merely the appetizer and that the main course becomes . . . an outbreak of nation-building and infrastructure construction and resources which are . . . not within our capacity to provide for everyone around the world.” After eight years of operations in Afghanistan, and the recent announcement that additional troop deployments will continue to execute a strategy that stretches the military beyond its traditional combat role for at least another 18 months, the above quotation could easily convey the commitment-fatigue prevalent in Washington these days. But the […]

A little more than 10 years after the people of what is now Timor-Leste voted for independence, this small, half-island country has compressed into a few short years what many other post-colonial states have taken decades to achieve. It has been largely destroyed, achieved independence, had a political crisis, transitioned to democracy, and now appears to be heading into a period of political calm and economic growth. After the near-catastrophic events of 2006, Timor-Leste’s prospects are looking relatively positive, even if a number of important caveats apply. After roughly 300 years of Portuguese colonial neglect came to an end in […]

Conservative voices are being raised against what defense hawks consider to be the Democrats’ ulterior motive in addressing health care in America: a none-too-subtle long-term plot to curtail U.S. defense spending and thus render our military forces as strategically impotent as those of our NATO allies. This charge is at once hypocritical and correct, but not for the dark reasons ascribed to the Obama administration. Instead, the Democrats’ implied plot to rebalance domestic versus foreign spending merely responds to America’s demographic trends, while revealing — quite uncomfortably, for defense hawks — the shifting correlation of forces across the global security […]

The president and his national security team have outlined an ambitious strategy for Afghanistan. But if they hope to meet their July 2011 target date for the beginning of a U.S. drawdown, they will have to navigate some unavoidable roadblocks along the way. The first — and most pressing — is the continued weakness of the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Some commentators have written that the withdrawal of presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah from the second round of elections this past fall has cleared the way for Karzai — with U.S. support and aid — to begin necessary reforms. […]

Every few months, Israelis undergo an emotionally wrenching experience, with one family in particular experiencing it on a level no other could comprehend. With cruel regularity, the local and international media announce the imminent release of Cpl. Gilad Shalit, captured by Palestinian operatives more than three years ago. Once again, there is word that negotiations between the Israeli government and Hamas, the Islamic organization that governs Gaza, are on the verge of bringing an end to Shalit’s captivity. With the help of German and Egyptian intermediaries, the two sides may soon conduct a trade. Israel could free perhaps as many […]

A series of recent moves indicates that Iran’s fundamentalist Shiite hierarchy is increasingly wary of extremist Sunni beliefs and the militant practitioners bringing them into the Islamic Republic from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and even Iraq. As part of an effort to halt the spread of radicalism, Iranian authorities are denouncing those tenets and deporting non-nationals who ascribe to them, while combating Sunni terrorists at home. Having been a state sponsor of terrorism for many years, the regime in Tehran and Qom has now begun experiencing a measure of the fear they have previously inflicted on others. In a November meeting with […]

The success or failure of President Barack Obama’s new Afghanistan strategy will depend on numerous international factors, from the contributions of Washington’s NATO allies to the performance of Afghanistan’s beleaguered government. However, few factors loom larger than Pakistan. Indeed, the Obama administration has conceded that unless Islamabad intensifies its efforts against Taliban and al-Qaida forces based in Pakistan, the Afghanistan plan will likely fail. Predictably, the U.S. government has renewed pressure on Pakistan to launch a more aggressive campaign against militancy within its borders. However, Washington has little credibility and leverage in Pakistan, and Pakistani mistrust of the United States […]

President Barack Obama offered a well-articulated if somewhat hazy vision last night of his plans to stabilize the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. The core idea is to increase foreign support for the Afghan government and security forces in order to allow them to develop the capacity to improve governance and confront the Taliban insurgency more independently. The basic problem with implementing this strategy is that the Afghan government and security forces continue to experience numerous difficulties. In addition, the administration’s other sought-after foreign partners are either leaving the field of battle or refusing to enter it. In order for […]

In a surprising move with huge implications for one of the world’s gravest humanitarian crises, last week the Somali Islamic group Al-Shabab told the U.N. World Food Program to stop sending foreign food aid to southern Somalia. According to a report from Voice of America, a U.S. government-funded TV news network, Al-Shabab claimed that the “massive importing of food is ruining Somalia’s agriculture sector.” The Islamists reportedly ordered the U.N. to begin buying food directly from local producers, for onward distribution to the country’s needy. The announcement is surprising and potentially worrisome, for several reasons. The move clearly reflects the […]