Two factors, among others, help explain the government’s decision to charge Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev with the use of a WMD: The charge is seen by prosecutors as relatively easy to prove, and it can be punished by the death penalty. This highlights the irrelevance of a dispute in the U.S. Senate that is holding up important new anti-nuclear and anti-radiological terrorism legislation. more
Chinese strategists likely see the prospect of a U.S. intervention in Syria as very beneficial to China. This might seem counterintuitive, given that Beijing has blocked efforts in the U.N. to authorize action in Syria. But while China is not interested in legitimizing U.S. involvement, Beijing would quickly seize the opportunity to take advantage should the U.S. decide to entangle itself in Syria. more
The victory by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan’s national elections offers the U.S. an opportunity to develop and execute a strategy for improving the troubled relationship with Islamabad. Although the Obama administration has defined detailed goals for what it would like to achieve in Afghanistan, as well as strategies for attaining them, U.S. officials have yet to do the same for Pakistan.
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Does the U.S. genuinely want Europe to police its geopolitical backyard? When it comes to the Syrian crisis, the answer seems to be no. The peace conference announced last week was a setback for Britain and France’s more hawkish approach and reflects a paradox: While the U.S. has frequently called for Europe to take responsibility for its own security, Washington is often nervous about the results. more
John Kerry undertook his maiden voyage to Moscow as U.S. secretary of state this week, and the initial prognosis is that his visit was a success. There was a perceptible thaw in what, over the past year, has been described as a much more contentious relationship. Kerry continued the process of leaving behind bilateral baggage that had accumulated during the the first term of the Obama administration. more
The Obama administration’s pivot away from the Middle East and toward Asia is based on the belief that the U.S. has underinvested in the Asia-Pacific, where the bulk of its future opportunities and challenges lie. As America rebalances, a defense white paper from its most reliable ally in the region, Australia, should be closely read in Washington. Its message is that if the U.S. is rebalancing, so is Australia. more
The United States and Russia have announced a diplomatic initiative that would bring together representatives from the Syrian regime and opposition forces to negotiate a framework to end the Syrian conflict. more
India’s foreign minister visited Tehran in the first week of May, where he signed a number of agreements, including for the expansion of the strategically important Chabahar Port. The thawing of bilateral ties reflects the critical interest that the two sides share in ensuring stability in Afghanistan. Clearly the scheduled U.S. military withdrawal is driving the new diplomatic engagement between India and Iran. more
President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico to meet with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto was an effort to recast the perceived priorities of the bilateral agenda from security to economic issues. The two leaders announced a cabinet-level economic dialogue, education exchanges and a few other related activities. These initiatives are certainly worthy, but the leaders missed an opportunity to think bigger. more
With the U.S. out of Iraq and getting out of Afghanistan, interest in insurgency is ebbing. Still, unlike the 1990s, it has not gone away entirely. This continued interest is a good thing, but, unfortunately, official thinking reflects old-style insurgency more than emerging forms. The failure to adapt U.S. thinking to changing patterns of insurgency leaves the country poorly equipped for the next conflict. more
South Korean President Park Geun-hye is currently in the United States, where she will meet with President Barack Obama at the White House, attend a special dinner to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the U.S.-South Korean alliance and address a joint session of Congress, among other activities. She will also travel to New York and Los Angeles, but not to other countries, underscoring the trip’s significance. more
As the immediate sense of crisis fades on the Korean Peninsula, the longer-term cycle of provocation and response remains in place. North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile capabilities continue to grow, and South Korea is feeling the pressure to respond by building its own capabilities. Meanwhile, there are signs that China's resolve to back the North may be wavering. And while the U.S. response to North Korea seems to have worked in the short run, Washington needs to stay prepared for all contingencies. more
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s tentatively planned visit to the Gaza Strip later this month is proving yet another test for Ankara’s Middle East policy, which has been battered by the regional upheaval of the past two years. While Erdogan has long wanted to make an official trip to Hamas-ruled Gaza, he has also been receiving strong messages from the U.S.and Fatah to put the visit off. more
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is heading to Moscow this week as part of a renewed campaign to make Russia rethink its support for the Syrian regime. Kerry is reportedly optimistic that he can make some progress. But this new push is reminiscent of earlier, unsuccessful efforts. And the mere fact that the U.S. continues to court Moscow over Syria represents a considerable diplomatic victory for the Russians. more
There has been a lot of talk in recent days about “red lines” and the strength of American resolve. Much of it has revolved around the possibility that chemical weapons may have been used in the Syrian civil war as well as allegations that China has not fulfilled commitments it made to resolve the Chen Guangchen affair. But red lines are most effective when there is already a pre-existing commitment to act. more
When U.S. President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto met in Mexico City yesterday, among the wide range of issues they discussed was the status of the Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement. Despite the economic and energy security benefits it promises to both sides, the agreement has been stalled in the U.S. for more than a year. Further delay on the agreement makes little sense. more
Africa has never been central to America's global security strategy. From Washington's vantage, the continent has always been less important than other regions. The official approach has normally been one of relative indifference with a bit of aid when things got really bad. In the past year, though, several factors have increased the attention being paid to Africa by American policymakers and military leaders. more
The recent review conference of the Chemical Weapons Convention addressed many important issues, but overshadowing them all are revolutionary changes in chemistry, biology and nano and information technologies. Some of the implications of these scientific and technological developments are potentially positive. Unfortunately, some of the likely results could have extremely negative repercussions for the CWC. more
Australia last sat on the Security Council in 1985-1986, and there was no great enthusiasm when the current Labor government announced it would seek a temporary seat for the current period. Though critics said it was unlikely to succeed, Australia won a decisive vote on the first ballot. And while most Australians cared little about the outcome, it was, in fact, an important victory for Australian diplomacy. more
In his recommendations for the U.S. to become more actively involved in the Syrian civil war, Sen. Bob Corker has fallen victim to one of the more seductive temptations that regularly befall American policymakers: that with enough aggressive leadership and a healthy application of technological acumen, Washington can get other actors to align themselves with and then execute U.S. policy objectives. more
When authorities revealed that the suspects in the Boston Marathon bombings, Tamerlan and Dzokhar Tsarnaev, were of Chechen origin, the news might have put a smile on Vladimir Putin’s face. After all, the Russian president might have concluded, a terrorist attack by Chechens in America would vindicate his hard-line approach to Chechen rebels. The evidence so far does not support that view, however. more