Early Sunday morning, the war in Syria took a new turn when forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and large numbers of Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon launched a major offensive to retake the Syrian town of Qusair. Retaking the city is key not only to Assad’s strategy, but also to his regional allies. It stands at the intersection of fundamental objectives shared by Damascus, Tehran and Hezbollah. more
The Syrian civil war continues because those who could stop it believe that time is on their side and things will eventually turn in their favor, or else that ending the fighting is not worth the costs. Sadly the conflict is not yet ripe for resolution, and the innocent pay the price. It is impossible to predict the outcome of the war with certainty, but it is possible to sketch feasible scenarios. more
At their White House summit last week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Barack Obama jointly called for greater international efforts to end the Syrian civil war, though the two leaders reportedly differ on how directly the West should become involved. Meanwhile, the preoccupation with Syria has obscured unresolved sources of tension between the two countries on other issues. more
In late-April, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon tapped Nicholas Kay, a former British ambassador and Africa director at the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office, as his new special representative in Somalia. When Kay takes up his duties as the head of the new U.N. Assistance Mission in Somalia on June 3, he will be presented with risks and opportunities at a time of renewed hope and momentum for Somalia. more
Chinese strategists likely see the prospect of a U.S. intervention in Syria as very beneficial to China. This might seem counterintuitive, given that Beijing has blocked efforts in the U.N. to authorize action in Syria. But while China is not interested in legitimizing U.S. involvement, Beijing would quickly seize the opportunity to take advantage should the U.S. decide to entangle itself in Syria. more
The people of Spain are now living through the fifth year of a deep economic recession, experiencing a level of unemployment that would have seemed inconceivable before the bottom fell out. But despite countless protests and furious debate, the Spanish are becoming disillusioned with all the options before them. As the recession lingers and the hardships intensify, the answer increasingly is “none of the above.” more
The controversy over whether the Obama administration lied about the September 2012 attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, will consume Washington for some time, ultimately influencing the way the U.S. military responds to crises. But while the emotion associated with the inability to stop the attack is understandable, it may push the military to take excessive risks in future crises. more
The victory by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan’s national elections offers the U.S. an opportunity to develop and execute a strategy for improving the troubled relationship with Islamabad. Although the Obama administration has defined detailed goals for what it would like to achieve in Afghanistan, as well as strategies for attaining them, U.S. officials have yet to do the same for Pakistan.
Does the U.S. genuinely want Europe to police its geopolitical backyard? When it comes to the Syrian crisis, the answer seems to be no. The peace conference announced last week was a setback for Britain and France’s more hawkish approach and reflects a paradox: While the U.S. has frequently called for Europe to take responsibility for its own security, Washington is often nervous about the results. more
John Kerry undertook his maiden voyage to Moscow as U.S. secretary of state this week, and the initial prognosis is that his visit was a success. There was a perceptible thaw in what, over the past year, has been described as a much more contentious relationship. Kerry continued the process of leaving behind bilateral baggage that had accumulated during the the first term of the Obama administration. more
When Israeli missiles struck Syrian facilities on May 3—an operation that Israel has not officially confirmed but is widely believed to have carried out—they showed the results of a cost-benefit analysis whose arithmetic yields clear results. Since the attack, Israel has worked to assure Damascus that it has no interest in becoming embroiled in the Syrian civil war; the attack, rather, targeted Hezbollah. more
