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September 04, 2010
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The Realist Prism: Can Heavy Building Wait as Obama Puts Out Electoral Fires?

By Nikolas Gvosdev 03 Sep 2010
World Politics Review

Last week I suggested that the best way for President Barack Obama to secure his fragile foreign policy gains would be to announce that he would not run for re-election. My concern was that the growing preoccupation first with the midterm elections, then with a re-election campaign in 2012, would begin to draw away the administration's energy and focus. Already, the president's attention as well as that of his team has shifted.

World Citizen: Sri Lanka, China Form Strategic Shield against the West

By Frida Ghitis 02 Sep 2010 | World Politics Review

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka -- Sri Lanka has always held a special place in the hearts of global strategists. In earlier centuries, Portuguese, Dutch, and British colonial invaders sought to exploit its riches, but they also coveted the island for its location. Now, in what may become the Chinese Century, it is Beijing that has its sights on the country formerly known as Ceylon.

War is Boring: Afghan Forces Deploy for Pakistan Flood Relief

By David Axe 01 Sep 2010 | World Politics Review

Torrential monsoon rains since late July have flooded Pakistan's Swat Valley and portions of neighboring Afghanistan, killing nearly 2,000 people and displacing around 2 million. Relief efforts have included deployments of troops and helicopters by the Pakistan military, the NATO force in Afghanistan and, perhaps surprisingly, the nascent Afghan air corps.

Global Insights: Nuclear Forensic Fundamentals Need Fixing

By Richard Weitz 31 Aug 2010 | World Politics Review

The National Research Council recently released a report warning that U.S. nuclear forensics capacity was dangerously eroding, despite renewed government efforts to bolster it. Although the report has identified important problems with the resources and strategy employed for U.S. nuclear forensics, it does not address some fundamental problems with the application of the concept of nuclear forensics.

The New Rules: The Changing Food Security Equation

By Thomas P.M. Barnett 29 Aug 2010 | World Politics Review

While the world doesn't yet face a food crisis on par with the summer of 2008, it's clear that the drought currently affecting the Black Sea trio of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan -- all big-time global exporters of wheat and barley -- has suddenly made food inflation a primary threat to the somewhat fragile and decidedly uneven global economic recovery. At the very least, it reminds us just how tight global food markets are.

The Realist Prism: To Secure Policy Gains, Obama Should Not Run for Re-Election

By Nikolas Gvosdev 13 Aug 2010 | World Politics Review

More than halfway through 2010, the Obama administration has made some progress on a number of foreign policy challenges. There have been breakthroughs in Washington's relations with Moscow, sanctions against Iran, operations in Afghanistan, and the U.S. troop wind down in Iraq. But these gains, while real, are nonetheless fragile and very reversible.

World Citizen: What Iran Sanctions Success Would Look Like

By Frida Ghitis 12 Aug 2010 | World Politics Review

After the Obama administration shifted gears in its strategy to stop Iran's nuclear program, moving from diplomacy to sanctions, a sense of skepticism about its chances for success emanated from all corners. A consensus emerged that the weak U.N. sanctions would simply fail to deter Iran's pursuit of nuclear know-how. Since the latest resolution's passage, however, much has transpired in many places.

War is Boring: U.S. Battle Plan for Pacific Hinges on Reform, Allies

By David Axe 11 Aug 2010 | World Politics Review

Today, the U.S. Navy is scrambling to preserve its dominance of the western Pacific in the face of a rising Chinese military. But the emerging AirSea Battle doctrine -- inspired by the 1980s' AirLand doctrine -- risks foundering for a lack of cash and hardware. U.S.-allied governments that could help compensate for America's waning resources might be turned off by AirSea Battle's risky aims and aggressive overtones.

Global Insights: Assessing Obama's Iran Diplomacy

By Richard Weitz 10 Aug 2010 | World Politics Review

One of the few positive outcomes of last July's disputed Iranian presidential election and the failed U.S. diplomatic initiatives toward Iran was to make it easier for the Obama administration to induce foreign governments to adopt a harder stance towards Tehran. Although it is too early to judge the effects of the new sanctions adopted by the EU and the United States, we can begin to assess the administration's multilateral diplomacy.

The New Rules: Putting the Brakes on China until Beijing Can

By Thomas P.M. Barnett 09 Aug 2010 | World Politics Review

Every step that China takes to build up its military power naturally triggers a strong balancing desire throughout the rest of Asia. But with none of those far-smaller economies looking to anger "rising China," somebody needs to give voice to those fears and create vehicles for organizing the sought-after balancing. That somebody can only be the United States.

The Realist Prism: If Iraq is New Lebanon, Will U.S. Play Syria?

By Nikolas Gvosdev 06 Aug 2010 | World Politics Review

It's not unreasonable to think of Iraq as the new Lebanon -- a fractious and not-so-united nation-state unable to form and sustain coherent governments, and still tottering near the precipice of a renewed civil war. If so, has the United States become its Syria? Put differently, the United States may no longer be willing to engage in open combat in Iraq, but it may have to maintain a military presence in Mesopotamia far beyond any 2011 departure date, in order to provide a certain degree of political stability in the country.