Briefing Archive

Scotland heads to the polls next week to vote on the question, “Should Scotland be an independent country?” The latest polls show that the “no” camp is ahead with 53 percent of voters. However, this comes only days after a YouGov poll indicated that 51 percent of Scots were in favor of independence. The uncertainty of which way the referendum will go reflects the uncertainty over what the consequences would be if Scotland were to be become an independent nation, especially with regard to foreign policy. The Scottish National Party (SNP), which is leading the campaign for Scottish independence, “is […]

Shortly after Thailand’s military took power in a coup in May and proclaimed the ruling junta the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), its leader, Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, said he wanted to “reform the political structure, economy and society.” At the time, the burning question was under what terms will this reform take place—and who gets to decide? Three months after the coup, the answer appears clear: Prayuth and the NCPO have supreme power over all political developments. The interim constitution adopted by the junta on July 22 has produced a 200-member National Legislative Assembly, all of its members […]

On Sept. 5, the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) announced it was “indefinitely” halting its prosecution of Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is on trial for allegedly directing the ethnic violence that followed the country’s 2007 elections. The presiding ICC prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, claimed that amid many delays since the start of the trial, the evidence required to bring a case against Kenyatta had still not materialized. But other factors may be at play: The lapsed prosecution, in fact, appears to reflect the limited authority of the ICC as well as unease over global governance jurisdiction in sub-Saharan Africa. Key […]

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Japan in the first week of September generated huge expectations in both New Delhi and Tokyo. During Modi’s first bilateral visit outside the subcontinent, Tokyo and New Delhi agreed to upgrade their annual strategic dialogue to the level of foreign and defense ministers. Tokyo also lifted its ban on six Indian firms involved in defense research and development, which dated back to India’s 1998 nuclear weapons tests, paving the way for the transfer of Japanese military technology to India. Japanese Prime Minister Abe also assured Modi that Japan will invest around $35 billion […]

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s visit to India last week highlighted the two countries’ increasingly complementary geoeconomic objectives. The visit saw the conclusion of a much-delayed bilateral civil nuclear cooperation agreement that paves the way for uranium exports from Australia’s high-quality mines to fuel India’s ambitious nuclear energy plans. While in value terms future Australian uranium exports may not seem like much, they will actually enable India to undertake its next wave of industrialization in a more carbon-competitive manner, and that in turn will fuel massive demand for other Australian mineral exports. The strategic nature of the India-Australia alignment is […]

On Aug. 14, the eve of its 68th Independence Day, Pakistan’s fragile democracy plunged into another period of turbulence as two sets of anti-government marches began in Lahore and made their way to Islamabad. One was led by Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI), which claimed that last year’s general elections were marred by widespread electoral fraud and demanded Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s resignation, an investigation of electoral rigging and fresh elections. The other was led by Tahir-ul Qadri and his Pakistan Awami Tehrik (PAT), and called for the dissolution of the national parliament and provincial assemblies. Qadri, who […]

In late July, State Grid Corporation of China—the world’s largest state-owned electric utility company—bought a 35 percent stake in Italy’s CDP Reti for $2.8 billion. CDP Reti, itself a state-owned energy holding company, has its own 30-percent controlling stake in the Italian natural gas giant Snam and power grid company Terna, giving the Chinese company major interests in Italy’s energy market. State Grid’s Italian purchase added to a portfolio that includes a 25 percent stake in Portugal’s REN, which controls the two main Portuguese power grids. The purchases were the latest sign that Europe has become a battlefield for China, […]

Over the weekend, the European Union announced appointments to two of its top posts. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will take over the post of president of the European Council, replacing Herman Van Rompuy when his term expires in December, and Italian Foreign Minister Frederica Mogherini will replace Catherine Ashton as EU high representative for foreign policy. The appointments of “a Kremlin critic from ex-communist Eastern Europe and the foreign minister of one of Moscow’s biggest customers for gas,” as Reuters put it, is emblematic of the steps the EU has taken to balance divisions among its members. As I […]

To the astonishment of many political observers last month, Benigno Aquino III, the embattled president of the Phillipines, openly entertained the possibility of seeking a second term in office in 2016. That would require amending the constitution and contradicting the core principles of his mother, democracy icon and former President Corazon Aquino, who insisted on a single-term presidency to prevent the return of Ferdinand Marcos-style dictatorship. Aquino’s plans represent a sharp turnaround since his 2010 election, which precipitated an unusual period of political stability and economic dynamism in the Philippines. After a decade of political uncertainty and sputtering growth under […]

Last month, amid the latest round of Asian regional summits in Myanmar, the United States called for a freeze in provocative acts in disputed areas in the South China Sea. While the move signaled Washington’s willingness to counter China’s growing maritime assertiveness, U.S. policy faces several structural challenges that could undermine the effectiveness of easing tensions in the South China Sea. As U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry put it at the ASEAN Regional Forum in Naypyitaw on Aug. 9, the freeze’s main objective is to manage competing territorial claims in the South China Sea by encouraging the six claimant […]

A pillar of Indonesian President-elect Joko Widodo’s campaign was an emphasis on strengthening the country’s identity as a “maritime nation” and becoming what he called a “global maritime nexus.” By giving his acceptance speech the night the official election results were announced onboard a traditional schooner in Jakarta’s main port, Jokowi, as he is universally known, demonstrated the importance he attaches to this vision, which was also prominent in his campaign’s 41-page “Vision Mission” statement. In comments since the election in July, Jokowi has called for the establishment of a maritime ministry and even waded into international waters by saying […]

IRBIL, Iraq—Syria’s moderate rebels are in trouble. Nearly encircled in their main bastion of Aleppo by the forces of Bashar al-Assad’s government and under pressure by Islamic State fighters, they are also weakened by internal rifts and little external support. Yet they are still fighting back, and the strength of their enemies may be exaggerated. The most immediate threat is coming from militants of the Islamic State—also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS—emboldened by their looting of American weaponry earlier this summer and an influx of Sunni fighters in Iraq. The Islamic State recently took […]